玉米期現雙雙大漲,近期産業上下遊----相關情況！

過去的一周,玉米期現雙雙大漲,期貨帶動現貨漲價,現貨價格推動期貨上漲,當然更多的是政策性方面消息的提振,政策引發市場情緒發生變化。港口方面更是從最低的2280元,上漲至2380元;松原嘉吉短短兩天,上漲六十元

。你漲,我漲,大家瘋狂上漲,你追我趕;

符合1月27日釋出的《玉米反轉在即,近期玉米産業上下遊——相關情況!》

2月20日中儲糧吉林分公司再度增加第二批收儲規模,釋放出政策托底信号,給玉米價格提供支撐,有助于化解産區餘糧壓力。加上,深加工企業陸續開始恢複收購,産區玉米上量節奏将加速。2月21日中儲糧進口玉米拍賣被官方取消,短期農戶玉米賣糧壓力仍需進一步消化。周四有關部門召開商業性收儲會議,當日期貨價格大幅上漲。

期貨方面,玉米盤面繼續上漲,當周玉米主力合約上漲2.07%,為連續第四周上漲。創九月份以來最高周漲幅。

未來如何運作?讓我們了解玉米上下遊相關情況,以待對後市有一個基本判斷!

     剛剛過去的一周,中央儲備玉米招标采購量加大,累計挂網采購12萬噸,成交6.6萬噸,成交率55%。

先了解一下玉米深加工和飼料企業情況

春節假期期間,基層市場購銷清淡,深加工廠門到貨量較少，深加工企業以消化庫存為主,企業玉米庫存悉數降低。

據Mysteel農産品調研顯示,2024年第8周,全國主要玉米深加工廠家加工企業玉米庫存總量422.4萬噸,環比降幅為11.45%,降至10周低點。

春節假期過後玉米澱粉企業進入階段性複工,行業開機率小幅升高。

據Mysteel農産品調查資料顯示,2月15日-2月21日當周,全國澱粉企業開機率為56.8%,較上周升高2.35%。全國玉米澱粉産量為28.73萬噸,較上周産量增加1.19萬噸。

春節假期後玉米澱粉市場走貨陸續恢複,但局部地區因雨雪天氣導緻物流發運受到限制,玉米澱粉行業庫存仍處于累積狀态,山東及黑龍江地區增庫最為明顯。

據Mysteel農産品調查資料顯示,截至2月21日,全國玉米澱粉企業澱粉庫存總量105.55萬噸,較上周增加5.38萬噸,周增幅5.37%,創逾10個月最高水準。

據Wind資料顯示,截至2月23日當周,自繁自養生豬養殖利潤為虧損190.16元/頭,2月9日為虧損108.15元/頭;外購仔豬養殖利潤為盈利7.88元/頭,2月9日為盈利34.62元/頭。

其次看下售糧進度方面

國内主産區迎來雨雪降溫天氣,潮糧保管條件轉好,基層售糧意願下降。

據Mysteel玉米團隊統計,截至2月22日,全國13個省份農戶售糧進度58%,較去年同期偏慢8個百分點。全國7個主産省份農戶售糧進度為55%,較去年同期偏慢8%。

再看下飼料企業庫存方面。

節後飼料企業陸續開工,經過春節期間消化庫存後,飼料企業有少量補庫需求,但養殖虧損疊加節後需求慣性回落,飼料消費進入淡季,企業多處于觀望狀态,補貨采購較為謹慎。

根據Mysteel玉米團隊對全國18個省份,47家規模飼料廠的最新調查資料顯示,截至2月22日,飼料企業玉米平均庫存28.60天,較2月8日降低2.41天,跌幅為7.76%,創近4個月最低水準。

截至2月16日北方四港玉米庫存共計132.8萬噸,周環比減少2.8萬噸;當周北方四港下海量共計4.1萬噸,周環比減少7.40萬噸。

最後看下廣東港口玉米庫存情況

廣東港口内貿玉米周度供需分析:預計本周到貨5萬噸,出貨12萬噸,結轉庫存28.5萬噸,庫存可使用天數17天左右。

廣東港口外貿玉米周度供需分析:預計本周到貨5.4萬噸,出貨11.2萬噸,結轉庫存56.6萬噸左右,庫存可使用天數35天左右。

廣東港口内外貿玉米周度供需分析:預計本周到貨10.4萬噸,出貨23.2萬噸,結轉庫存85.1萬噸左右,庫存可使用天數26天左右。

2月份廣東港口内貿玉米月度供需分析(共4周,2月23日更新):預計本月内貿玉米到貨51.8萬噸,出貨40.1萬噸,結轉庫存26.6萬噸,庫存可使用天數13天左右。

2月份廣東港口外貿玉米月度供需分析(共4周,2月23日更新):預計本月外貿玉米到貨16.8萬噸,出貨38.4萬噸,結轉庫存48萬噸,庫存可使用天數19天左右。

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body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, 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#74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: 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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}