【Village Chief Xiao Jiayi】Graphics and texts record rural life, write about the "three rural areas" issue, and interpret the focus of society! Stay tuned!
Food security is related to the safety of life, and the growth of food is inseparable from the land, so protecting the area of arable land is to protect our lives. Therefore, in recent years, the Land Management Law has been revised many times, strictly controlling cultivated land, prohibiting cultivated land from building houses, and carrying out "balance of occupation and compensation" measures, but the fundamental problem has not been solved, that is, how to improve the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain.
The only way is to raise the price of grain and increase the output of land on the basis of fixing the price unchanged, so that production and income can be increased and the peasants are in the mood to manage the land. However, at present, the income from growing grain is still low, in the absence of land rent, and even a number of land subsidies, it is still common for farmers to lose money on planting land.
Against this realistic background, there have been a large number of land reclamation, especially in hilly and mountainous areas. Looking at our current arable land area of 1.9 billion mu, but due to urban overdevelopment, resulting in high-quality arable land being occupied, through the "occupation and compensation balance" bar these lands have been replaced by mountains that are not conducive to farming, and some have been replaced by the original homesteads.
Looking at these large number of uninhabited new communities around the township, it can be seen at a glance. Therefore, in a large number of land abandonment, the replacement of good land and inferior land, every year can also be a bumper harvest, grain production has increased every year, have to make people suspicious.
According to official data, the total output of wheat in 2021 is 134.34 million tons, an increase of 2.0% over last year, and now that the summer harvest has passed nearly half a year, the price of wheat has risen across the board, from about 1.2 yuan at the end of the summer harvest to the current average price of 1.45 yuan, according to this trend, it is no exaggeration to break through 1.5 yuan per catty before the end of the year, which can be a high-priced wheat that has never been seen since the founding of the People's Republic of China.
In addition to wheat prices, corn prices are also close behind, and we know that in recent years corn prices have been higher than wheat prices, and now there is price inversion. Corn prices have also risen to about 1.35 yuan in a short period of time, except for the slightly lower prices in the northeast region, which are rising nationwide.
So what is the reason for the rising food prices in the harvest year, the agricultural sector has characterized this year's grain production, in the case of high yields, large stocks but the price has risen, the logic here in addition to the large increase in demand, it is difficult to have other explanations, otherwise the grain production is not as good as the official estimate.
According to the interpretation of industry insiders, there are three main factors for the recent rise in grain prices.
(1) The demand for flour increases in winter
Due to China's eating habits, winter is the peak demand period for pasta, and at the same time, entering the winter, due to survival habits, the situation of grain storage at home occurs, and some time ago, the citizens of some cities grabbed grain and grabbed noodles are the elements that promote demand. Moreover, this year's epidemic situation is not very stable, and at present, only the local cases are dozens of cases per day, so the number of people hoarding food in winter has increased. Coupled with the global shortage of grain in 2021, the international grain price has risen sharply, driving China's grain exports, so the demand in many aspects has increased.
(2) Bad weather affects production and transportation
Recently, the northern region, including the three northeastern provinces, Inner Mongolia and other places, was covered by heavy snow, and the epidemic led to the obstruction of grain transportation and increased transportation costs. Bad weather affects not only transportation, but also grain processing and production in some areas, resulting in an increase in the price of some grains in a short period of time.
(3) The storage provider and the acquirer pressurized the warehouse to help rise
The grain harvest in the country has increased, but the difficulty of grain depot procurement has increased, and most of this grain has flowed to flour processing enterprises and intermediate grain buyers. This year, the "grain collection certificate" was released, and no unit or individual could collect grain illegally, and a large number of small traders and hawkers entered the grain procurement industry. And these storers in order to pursue greater interests, pressure the price increase, every time the high out of the position.
As the grower of grain, we farmers have enjoyed too many benefits from this wave of grain prices, because most farmers sell their grain on the day of harvest because of problems such as storage and drying. At present, 90% of the rural household wheat has basically sold out, and it is impossible to enjoy this wave of dividends.
However, the rise in grain prices will greatly increase the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain, so as to achieve a bumper harvest in 2022, but after a substantial increase in grain production, if there is no good news, grain prices will fall because of oversupply, just like the current rice prices, so that farmers fall into losses.
Therefore, in the future, the more grain production, the lower the price, the more money is lost, and the reduction in grain production is the most important driving force for the rise of grain!