Per reporter: Ren Fei Per editor: Ye Feng
Over the past few days, public bond funds have frequently announced the suspension of large-scale subscriptions, and some even suspended redemptions. From the quantitative point of view, 10 new bond funds announced the suspension of large subscriptions on the 24th. According to Wind statistics, 208 announcements in the past month have prompted the suspension of large subscriptions, involving more than 100 funds.
Some fund managers said that under the current stagflation pattern and the transformation of wealth management net worth, the investment targets based on interest rate bonds and credit bonds are less cost-effective, and it is not easy to find opportunities to build positions with new funds. At the same time, the recent acceleration of local bond issuance shows that monetary policy is easy to loosen and difficult to tighten, so in the current low interest rate environment, the bond market is more likely to maintain a volatile trend.
In the past month, more than 100 bond bases have been restricted
Recently, some bond funds have suspended subscriptions, and from the perspective of quantity, the number of bond funds that have announced the intention to suspend large-scale subscriptions in the past month is significantly higher than in previous periods, and the starting point of restriction on subscription is as low as one million.
China Life Security 1-3 year CDB Bond Index Fund mentioned in the announcement on November 24 that it will suspend the fund's large-scale subscription, conversion and regular fixed investment business on the same day, that is, the cumulative subscription application amount of a single fund account on a single open day of the fund shall not exceed 1 million yuan, and if the cumulative subscription amount of a single fund account on a single open day exceeds 1 million yuan, the fund has the right to partially or completely refuse.
Similar to the 1 million restricted funds, there are China canada pure bonds, ABC Huili Jinyu bond fund, etc., Founder Fubon Fuli pure bonds increased to 5 million limits, Capstone short bonds relaxed to 100 million yuan, and E Fangda Peace of Mind Return Bonds explicitly suspended institutional customer subscription, conversion and transfer and regular fixed investment business.
Wind statistics show that in the past month, 208 announcements have prompted the corresponding bond funds to suspend large-scale subscriptions, involving more than 100 funds. It is worth noting that some QDII bond bases have also restricted subscription, Dacheng global dollar bonds A and C are suspended due to overseas holidays, while E Fangda short-term and medium-term dollar bonds A and C are clearly purchased for no more than 500 yuan in a single day.
According to the reporter's observation, the bond-based funds with performance at both ends of the year are basically restricted, and the investment debt-based financial management options of the basic people are becoming more and more scarce. For example, China Commercial Fengli Enhanced Fixed Opening A and C have recorded more than 43% of the income this year, ranking first in the bond fund ranking, and the subscription is currently suspended; Tianhong Tianli E and C restrict large-scale subscription.
From the perspective of investment scope, some convertible bond funds and products using bond enhancement strategies are in the front, and the scale is also superior to pure bonds and some fixed bond bases, but in terms of the number of doubling bases, of the 4272 bond funds (all shares, excluding ETFs) counted by Wind, only 32 fund units have a net value of more than 2 yuan, and CITIC Prudential Wenhong A unit net value of 5.61 yuan / share is temporarily ranked first.
Some industry insiders have analyzed that some products are customized products of institutions, so the suspension of subscription or large subscription can maintain the stable operation of the fund. However, some fund managers believe that the purchase restriction is closely related to the current bond market.
The increment is difficult to match, and the pattern of shocks in the bond market has not changed
Some fund managers said that there are not many options for the current bond target, and a public fund manager in Shenzhen told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that the new funds are facing the problem of building positions, and the short-term gathering of a large number of funds is easy to have an impact on the net value of the fund.
It is understood that the current ten-year Treasury yield is lower, Wind statistics show that it remained at 2.89% on November 24, but narrowed from the 2.94% level in early November. "Bond yields are lower, and the new subscription funds cannot find high-priced asset allocation, so they can only choose to suspend large-scale subscriptions." The fund manager analyzes.
Not only that, he believes that the possibility of marginal convergence of market liquidity is increasing, and it is also full of uncertainty about investment expectations in the bond market. He explained that the momentum of local bond issuance in the broad fiscal field has not decreased, taking Shenzhen as an example, on November 22, the fourth batch of new local government bonds (64 to 80 issues) in 2021 was issued through the government bond issuance system of the Ministry of Finance, with a total scale of 5.078 billion yuan, and the new bond quota of 51.9 billion yuan in Shenzhen for the whole year was also issued.
At the same time, the mortgage loan issuance policy in the real estate field is also loosened, according to previous media reports, Guangzhou second-hand housing loans, as long as the appraisal price can pass the bank review, you can loan according to the appraisal price, rather than according to the guide price. Although the news has not been officially confirmed, the fund manager said that if the issuance of local bonds accelerates and the mortgage policy is loosened, it also means that the bottom of the extremely strict policy in the early stage may appear, and the credit environment may appear marginal improvement. In his view, domestic monetary policy is easy to loosen and difficult to tighten, and in the current environment of lower interest rates, the bond market is more likely to maintain a volatile trend.
According to the observation of industry insiders, the recent macro is facing structural contradictions and showing a stagflation pattern. Some institutions have publicly stated that this structural contradiction is difficult to resolve through monetary policy adjustments. However, if the constraints on real estate and urban investment are not significantly relaxed, upward elasticity may be limited, and in this environment, it is expected that the bond market as a whole will show a pattern of range shocks.
For the follow-up investment strategy, Invesco Great Wall Peng Chengjun believes that some varieties have high allocation value. "We can pay attention to the investment opportunities of perpetual bonds and subordinated bonds brought about by policy changes." In terms of credit debt, high-grade credit debt is still the mainstay, and with the adjustment of credit spreads, we should closely grasp the opportunity of credit debt adjustment. ”
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