"When we first started thinking about buying a car, we did consider Japanese cars, but when we went to various brands of 4S stores, we didn't have any special favorites. First, most of the car shape is too old-fashioned, and the second is that the choice of new energy vehicles is relatively small, and finally we gave up. Ge Ting (pseudonym), who lives in Shanghai, is a post-90s generation, and she wants to "get on the car" before the Shanghai plug-in hybrid (including range extender) special license issuance window (that is, before January 1, 2023), and finally she bought an ideal ONE.
In fact, the loss of potential consumers like Ge Ting is the epitome of the current decline in the market share of Japanese cars in China. According to the latest data released by the Association, in November this year, the retail sales of mainstream joint venture brands in China were about 780,000 vehicles, down 23% year-on-year. Among them, the retail share of Japanese brands was 22.2%, down 1 percentage point year-on-year.
Under the decline in overall market share, Japanese car companies are also suffering in the Chinese market. Judging from the public data that has been released, in November, toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda and other car companies in China showed a downward trend. In this regard, a number of Japanese car companies said that their sales fell because of the shortage of parts supply.
"The chips used by Japanese joint venture car companies are generally relatively high-end chips or the latest chips, and this chip generally has very little inventory, which leads to japanese car companies being affected more greatly under the 'lack of core tide'; secondly, the sales of Japanese new energy vehicles are relatively low, which also affects the overall sales growth of Japanese cars to a certain extent." Zhang Xiang, an automotive analyst and researcher at the Automotive Industry Innovation Research Center of North China University of Technology, said in an interview with the Daily Economic News reporter.
"Lack of core" is the main reason for the decline in sales of Japanese cars
The poor performance of terminals has been presented in the sales data of major Japanese manufacturers.
According to official data, in November this year, Honda's sales in China were about 136,700 units, down 20.2% year-on-year; Nissan's sales in China, including passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, were about 114,100 units, down 27.0% year-on-year; Toyota's sales in China were about 172,200 units, down 3.1% year-on-year; and Mazda's sales in the Chinese market were about 14,800 units, down 21.2% year-on-year.
Not only that, since May this year, the sales of Japanese cars in China have entered a downward channel. According to the data of the Association, since May this year, the retail sales of Japanese cars in China have shown a negative growth trend for seven consecutive months. Among them, the decline was the most significant in September this year, reaching 29.9%.
For the decline in sales, many Japanese car companies have attributed the reason to the "shortage of parts". Since August this year, Toyota's production in Japan has also pressed the pause button, and GAC Toyota has also suffered a production suspension storm. The relevant person in charge of Toyota China once told reporters: "From the current situation, our sales in China are definitely affected by the shortage of chips, so we are paying attention to the changes in the situation and related supply almost every minute and second." The relevant person in charge of GAC Toyota revealed to reporters: "The production line is that the production line needs to be deployed, not just the chip." ”
The relevant person in charge of Honda China also told reporters: "Now Honda's sales in the Chinese market have indeed been affected, but the specific models and quantities affected have not yet been announced." ”
When the reporter visited the terminal market, he found that the "lack of core" is one of the important reasons for the decline in sales of Japanese cars. A salesperson of a Japanese brand 4S store in Beijing told reporters: "The models in our store are now incomplete, and some of the configurations and colors of hot products such as Camry and Leiling are temporarily absent, mainly because of the shortage of chips." Now many cars in the store have to wait about two months to pick up the car, even if there are customers who want to go to the store to see the car, we have to explain it to them in advance. ”
Image source: Per reporter Zhang Jian photographed (data map)
"In our store, hot models like CR-V and XR-V are in short supply, and it takes 1 to 2 months to pick up the car." Another salesperson of a Japanese brand 4S store in Beijing said.
"Now the supply of chips is very tight, most of the models on the manufacturer's side do not have existing cars, to wait for the chip, customers have to wait for the car if they buy a car." So this affects this year's sales performance, which is really not as good as last year. A salesperson of a Japanese brand 4S store in Shanghai said.
In Zhang Xiang's view, Japanese car companies are plagued by chip shortages and their production mechanisms are not unrelated. "Japanese car companies generally use lean production, that is, strive for zero inventory. They usually do not stock or stock less, try to occupy as little inventory as possible, and transport parts directly from suppliers to the assembly line. This production mechanism in the 'lack of core' at this stage, the pressure will be relatively large, will be more difficult to deal with. Zhang Xiang said.
Independent brands grab share?
However, some insiders believe that the decline in Sales of Japanese cars is only a symptom, and the more serious problem is that it is being "cannibalized" by its own brands.
According to the China Automobile Association, in October this year, the market share of independent brand passenger cars climbed to 47.5%, squeezing the market share of German and Japanese cars below 20%. In June last year, the market share of self-branded passenger cars was only 33.5%, the lowest since 2009.
The data shows that in the whole of 2020, the market share of Japanese cars rose from 21.3% in 2019 to 23.1%, while maintaining positive growth, the gap with German cars was less than 1%, while the market share of independent brands fell from 39.3% in 2019 to 38.4%. In contrast, in the first 10 months of this year, the market share of independent brands rose to 43.8%, up 6.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the market share of Japanese cars slipped to 20.9%.
Zhang Xiang believes that a large part of the momentum of the increase in the market share of independent brands comes from the strong performance of new energy vehicles. According to the latest data from the China Automobile Association, from January to November this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 3.023 million units and 2.99 million units, respectively, an increase of 1.7 times year-on-year, and the market penetration rate reached 12.7%. The China Automobile Association predicts that in 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China are expected to exceed 3.4 million units.
Image source: Visual China
"Japanese cars have always adhered to the hybrid technology route, and the sales volume of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid models is small, there are shortcomings in the field of new energy, and there is a gap with independent brands, which also affects its market share and sales." Zhang Xiang said.
According to public information, Japanese car companies generally did not focus on the pure electric vehicle market in the early stage, and they made relatively little noise in the field of pure electric vehicles. For example, Toyota did not launch its first pure electric model, the Yize E Jinqing, in the Chinese market until 2020; Honda did not debut the first Honda brand pure electric concept car until the 2020 Beijing Auto Show.
When the reporter visited the market, he also found that the rise of domestic smart cars did have an impact on Japanese cars. "Our most important purpose is to occupy the brand, but there are too few Japanese new energy vehicles that can meet the conditions, and the shape is relatively old-fashioned, which feels not in line with the aesthetics of young people, and there is no highlight of science and technology and trend that can particularly attract us." Ge Ting told reporters that at the same price, many independent brand models have attracted her attention, and under the comparison and experience of many parties, she finally chose a model under the new car-making forces.
"Now that various brands have risen, there are too many models to choose from, and many consumers will choose their own brands when buying new energy vehicles." 4S shop cars are getting harder and harder to sell, and it's getting harder and harder to make money. Qi Fan (pseudonym), who used to be a salesman at a Japanese brand 4S store, told reporters that he has felt the change in the direction of domestic automobile consumption, which has also become one of the important reasons why he plans to leave recently.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, believes that the reason why independent brands can take away the share of Japanese cars is first of all because the production capacity of independent brands is relatively abundant, and secondly, because there are more new energy vehicles of independent brands, forming an alternative of new energy vehicles to low-end vehicles of joint venture brands. Japanese joint venture brands mainly produce high-end models, and in the context of "lack of cores", chips will be distributed to models with higher profits, and entry-level models are relatively few. Therefore, at this time, the traditional cars of independent brands and new energy vehicles of independent brands have diverted the market of low-end models of joint venture brands.
"The problem of 'lack of core' is not timely enough, coupled with the lack of new energy vehicles, the development of electrification is relatively lagging behind, and the route of the Chinese market is inconsistent, a series of comprehensive factors have led to Japanese vehicles now encountering development bottlenecks." However, the reputation of Japanese cars is good, and there should be a rebound in sales and market share in the follow-up. Cui Dongshu told reporters.
Accelerate to catch up with the electric wave
Japanese car companies that realize the problem are also accelerating to catch up with the wave of electrification.
On November 29, Nissan released its "Vision 2030", planning to invest 2 trillion yen (about 112.84 billion yuan) in the next five years to accelerate the layout of electric drives and technological innovation. By fiscal 2030, Nissan will launch 23 electric models, including 15 all-electric models. In the Chinese market, by fiscal 2026, Nissan aims to achieve the goal of selling more than 40% of the total sales of electric vehicles.
Prior to this, Honda also officially released a new pure electric vehicle brand e:N in China, of which e:NS1 and e:NP1 two pure electric vehicles will be put into production at Dongfeng Honda and Guangqi Honda respectively, and are scheduled to be launched in the spring of 2022. At the same time, Honda said that after 2030, all new models launched in China will be electric models such as pure electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles, and no new fuel vehicles will be launched. In order to cooperate with the introduction of e:N series products, Guangqi Honda and Dongfeng Honda will build new plants for pure electric vehicles, and plan to start production from 2024.
Image source: Courtesy of the enterprise
According to the plan, in the advanced markets including China, Honda's sales of pure electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles are planned to reach 40% in 2030, 80% in 2035, and 100% in 2040. In the next five years, Honda will launch 10 new Honda brand pure electric models in China in a row.
During this year's Shanghai Auto Show, Toyota also released a new pure electric exclusive series "TOYOTA bZ". By 2025, the bZ series plans to launch seven pure electric models, five of which will be introduced to the Chinese market, including models developed by Toyota and BYD. The first car in the series will be produced in China and Japan, and global sales are expected to reach by mid-2022.
According to the plan, by 2025, Toyota will launch 15 pure electric models worldwide. In the Chinese market, by 2025, toyota and Lexus brands will introduce 35 new electrified models, including 10 pure electric models. In addition, Toyota also announced that by 2030, it expects to invest 1.5 trillion yen (about 88.12 billion yuan) to develop power batteries and its battery supply chain, with a view to leading the key automotive technology areas in the next decade. By 2030, Toyota's all-solid-state batteries will achieve continuous and stable production.
Today, the three major Japanese car companies have announced their electrification goals and are actively promoting transformation. In this context, can Japanese cars change the decline in sales in China by means of electrification? The industry will continue to pay attention to this.
Reporter | Pei Jianru edited | Sun Lei Sun Zhicheng Yi Qijiang
Proofreading | Cheng Peng
| the original article of the daily economic news nbdnews |
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