Near the end of the year, the auto 4S shop arranged the hanging ornaments and ornaments full of festive atmosphere early, and the store was full of red fire and bustling with customers. In order to welcome the double festival, many stores have launched various promotional activities.
It seems that the end of this year is no different from usual, but in addition to the bustle, the key role of "car" is absent.
In a GAC Toyota 4S store in beijing's fifth ring road, the sales staff enthusiastically introduced the hot-selling model Sai Na to future auto daily, but in fact, the car did not arrive at the store, and there was not even a show car in the store.
The sales staff is also helpless, "the production capacity is insufficient, and the exhibition car can only arrive at the store at the end of December." "Picking up the car is even more elusive – order now, maybe next March."
"Out of stock" does not only exist in hot-selling models, but has basically become the norm in the car market. Insufficient production capacity, "lack of core", "lack of batteries", etc., various factors are superimposed, resulting in the terminal market "a car is difficult to find".
Future Auto Daily visited a number of car dealer stores and found that whether it is a luxury brand, a joint venture brand or an independent brand, only a small number of brands have existing cars for specific models, most models need to wait 3-5 months to pick up the car, and some models even have to wait 8-10 months.
For dealers, there is no longer pressure to clear inventory at the end of this year, but the income from selling cars has also decreased accordingly, which is bitter, I am afraid that only they know best.
At the end of the year, sales were rushed, but there were no cars to sell
The end of the year and the beginning of the year is the peak sales season, which is the best time for dealers to "rush performance". On the one hand, most consumers will receive year-end bonuses during this period, and the budget for car purchase is relatively sufficient; on the other hand, some self-driving demand for going home for the New Year will be generated, and car purchase will be put on the agenda.
At the end of the year, dealers need to complete the phased sales targets set by car companies, reduce inventory pressure, and will focus on launching some preferential promotional activities to attract consumers to buy cars.
Before the Spring Festival every year, consumers and 4S stores maintain such a tacit understanding. But in 2021, when black swan events in the car market are frequent, everything is different.
Buying a car now is like "opening a blind box", and a car salesman told future auto daily: "(Buying a car) is to try your luck and see which one happens to have a current car (just buy which one)".
A Mercedes-Benz dealership sales staff located in the East Fourth Ring Road said that due to the lack of cores, many models in the store are not in stock, and manufacturers will try to ensure the supply of hot-selling models, "like C-class, E-class and other hot-selling models, the recent order can be picked up on the same day, but then may have to wait until next spring."
Source: Future Automotive Daily
EQC has already experienced a brief inventory shortage, and another Mercedes-Benz salesman recalled, "In July and August, three models in the store were completely out of stock due to lack of cores and batteries."
In order to buy the desired vehicle as soon as possible, many consumers have to sell in advance, in the words of sales, that is, "buying a car has become a car robbery". Some customer car purchase indicators can only arrive in January 2022, and they have already placed orders in September this year, "first stop in your store, and when the indicators come down, I will pick up the car."
In the BMW 4S store, the shortage situation is even more severe. As a "façade", the BMW 3 Series only has 2 or 3 vehicles in stock in the store, but the number of orders is increasing, "cars with personalized customization needs need to wait at least 3 months to pick up the car." The salesperson said.
BMW iX3 has only one existing car Source: Future Auto Daily
Xu Chen, a dealer system insider, told Future Auto Daily that not only BBA is out of stock, but also second-tier luxury brands, "The best-selling models of brands such as Cadillac and Hongqi need to queue up to book cars, and the inventory pressure is generally small."
The shortage of stocks is particularly prominent in some hot-selling models. The sales staff of GAC Toyota told Future Auto Daily that at present, both Xena and Highlander need to wait until March and April next year to have a current car, and they also need to buy it at a higher price.
New cars are in short supply, and in order to buy a car, the price increase has become acceptable.
On the weekend, the GAC Toyota store was crowded, and the seats in the exhibition hall were almost full, filled with car owners who were willing to raise the price to pick up the car.
Such a phenomenon also exists in independent brands. A Great Wall Motor sales staff told Future Auto Daily that Tank 300 accepts a mark-up to order a car, and the price increase of 18,000 yuan can pick up the car in about two weeks, "If you don't increase the price, you need to wait 8-10 months." "For prospective car owners, waiting for 8 months is too long, and they usually choose to pick up the car as soon as possible.
Profits are under pressure in the second half of the year
According to the latest data from AutoForecast Solutions, as of December 5, due to chip shortages, the cumulative production reduction in the global auto market this year was 10.122 million units, of which the cumulative production reduction in the Chinese auto market has reached 1.982 million units, accounting for 19.6% of the total global production reduction.
The lack of cores led to a tightening of automobile production capacity, which soon spread to the sales end.
According to data from the China Automobile Dealers Association, in November this year, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.35, down 21.5% year-on-year and up 4.7% month-on-month, and the inventory level rebounded, but the inventory coefficient was still below the warning line.
Source: China Automobile Dealers Association
Since June this year, the dealer inventory index has begun to fall below the warning line. According to the official explanation of the China Automobile Dealers Association, the inventory coefficient is between 0.8-1.2, reflecting that the inventory is within a reasonable range; the inventory coefficient is greater than 1.5, reflecting that the inventory has reached the alert level; the inventory coefficient is greater than 2.5, reflecting that the inventory is too high, and the operating pressure and risk are very large.
That said, from June to November, dealers' inventory levels are within a reasonable range. From the perspective of sub-categories, high-end luxury & import brands had the lowest inventory coefficient of 1.07. The inventory coefficient of the joint venture brand is 1.37, and the inventory coefficient of the independent brand is 1.49.
This is a very different situation compared to previous years. In the cold winter of the automobile market in 2018, the inventory coefficient of the whole year was above the warning line, and the coefficient of the second half of the year was higher than that of the first half of the year. In 2019, only 5 months below the warning line, and the sudden outbreak in 2020 pulled the inventory coefficient straight up, and the inventory coefficient at the end of the year was as high as 1.8.
Without the pressure of clearing the warehouse, the operation of the dealer group is generally good.
From the 2021 interim annual reports released by several major dealer groups, it can be seen that the top 100 automobile dealer groups such as Zhongsheng, Guanghui and Yongda have seen a year-on-year increase in revenue and profit, and only a few dealers (Zhengtong and Guoji) have experienced a decline in profitability.
According to the data, in the first half of 2021, Zhongsheng Group's new car sales were 276,000 units, up 39.7% from the same period in 2020; operating income was 870 million yuan, an increase of 50.1% over the same period in 2020. At present, the main brands operated by Zhongsheng Group cover Luxury brands such as Mercedes-Benz, Lexus, BMW, and Audi.
According to the "Dealer Voice Industry Report" released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, in the first half of this year, the proportion of luxury car dealers in China that achieved profitability was 66.5%, the profit of independent brand dealers accounted for 35.2%, and the profit of joint venture brand dealers was 33%.
Production capacity is in a hurry, there are no new cars to sell, and income naturally declines, but why do dealers still make a lot of money?
Xu Chen believes that under the premise of limited production capacity, dealers have not only relied on "quantity" to win, but have achieved the effect of controlling profits by reducing preferences.
It is true that although there are still some promotions in the store, they have been greatly reduced compared to previous years.
A salesman who has worked for luxury brands admitted to Future Auto Daily that it is not new for luxury brand dealers to give 20% profits to consumers, because only by reaching the sales targets set by manufacturers can dealers get the corresponding rebates.
In addition, the backlog of inventory cars also means a lot of expenditure, so 4S stores often "do whatever it takes" to rush sales.
This year, due to limited production capacity, many car companies have lowered the sales targets set for dealers. A salesperson of a self-owned brand told Future Auto Daily that since the beginning of this year, the epidemic has superimposed on the lack of cores, and the task given by manufacturers to dealers is "not too high", and the indicators of many manufacturers have been lowered in the middle of the year.
Therefore, although there are still ten days to go before the end of the year, many stores have completed the performance indicators. An independent brand salesman told Future Auto Daily, "At present, the store has completed the hard indicator of 'rush performance', and now continues to rush in order to make the data look better and have a good New Year." ”
Although the pressure to sell cars at the end of the year is reduced, and most dealer groups in the first half of the year have achieved increased revenue and profits, the profit in the second half of the year is facing greater uncertainty. In the second half of 2021, the economy entered a stage of stable operation, and the demand side rebounded, but at the same time, the lack of core was also intensifying, and supply and demand could not be balanced. Moreover, the high base after the recovery of the epidemic in the second half of 2020 has also become a challenge for business growth in the second half of this year.
Industry insider Anyang analysis said that the production capacity of new cars is limited, many customers can not wait for a long and uncertain car pick-up cycle, will choose to buy used cars with small age, 4S stores will have pre-sale orders lost, resulting in profit damage.
Xu Chen believes that at this stage, if dealers want to survive, they cannot blindly pursue sales and control profits.
Therefore, in addition to the reduction of the discount, we can also see the phenomenon of price increases. Anyang said to the Future Auto Daily that dealers need to purchase a certain number of best-selling models to receive a popular model (such as Xena). "Due to the limited profits of the best-selling models and the small rebate points of the popular models, it is necessary to earn back by the price increase of the popular models."
Author | Ding only Cui Qiuyang
Edit | Li Huanhuan