In 2022, China's energy vehicle subsidy policy will be reduced by 30% from the 2021 level. In 2023, the subsidy policy will be completely withdrawn. If the subsidy policy is abolished, what kind of impact will it have on the development of new energy vehicles?
We have seen that after the beginning of 2022, the entire carbon-neutral industry track has undergone a relatively large adjustment, and new energy vehicles have not been spared. As a result, there seems to be some pessimism in the market about the development of new energy vehicles in 2022. How to see?
So let's look at two sets of data, the sales data of new energy vehicles from January to November 2021, not only look at China, but also look at Europe and the United States; and the penetration rate. Having seen these numbers, especially the changes behind them, I am afraid that when you face this problem again, you will have a different perspective.
According to the data from the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November, the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in China were 2.807 million units. This figure is up 191% year-on-year in 2020, and the growth rate is quite high. This is based on the statistics of the enterprise factory data, not according to the data of the listed sales.
It is expected that China's new energy vehicle sales will reach about 3.35 million units in the whole year, accounting for 50% of the global market, and even more. Then it will increase by about 185% year-on-year in 2020.
The above figures show that China's new energy vehicle sales growth rate is quite strong, let's take a look at the market penetration rate.
From January to November, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic passenger car market has reached 15%, and in 2020, it will only be 5.8%. It is obvious that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has increased significantly, about twice the level.
Combining the two data, we found that new energy vehicles not only soared rapidly from the total data of sales, but also from the rapid increase in market penetration. In fact, in today's global market, such as China, Germany, Norway, Sweden, etc., the sales penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market is rapidly increasing.
In November 2021, the sales penetration rate of China's new energy vehicles in a single month has reached 20%. According to the current situation, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles in passenger cars will reach 20% throughout the year in 2022, or even exceed this level. This is the sales volume and penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China and the outlook for 2022.
Today, the upstream and downstream industrial chains of new energy vehicles have actually been globally integrated. It is necessary to look at the acceptance of new energy vehicles and electric vehicles in the two major automobile markets such as China, such as Europe and the United States. The data tells us that the European market for new energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles, was nearly 1 million in January-November, an increase of 77.6% over January-November 2020.
The US market is still relatively backward and conservative in the development of new energy vehicles. From January to November, sales of new energy vehicles in the United States reached 372,000 units, but the growth rate was even higher than that in Europe, reaching a growth rate of more than 90%.
The above data of the largest automobile market tells everyone that the growth rate of new energy vehicles is the fastest in the global market. And in the European and American markets, traditional gasoline and diesel vehicles in the first 11 months of 2021, some are negative growth, some are almost zero growth, only new energy vehicles have achieved positive growth against the trend.
If you consider the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2022 to reduce the slope by 30%, how much impact will it have?
Let's first say, how big is the impact of the quantitative data on the decline of subsidy policies? In 2021, the range of 300-400 kilometers of electric vehicles, the subsidy will be about 13,000 yuan per vehicle, it is expected that the subsidy will drop to the level of 10,000 yuan after the decline.
In the higher mileage of 400 to 600 to 800 kilometers, these car subsidies may be about 18,000 yuan, then after the decline will drop to more than 14,000 yuan, less than 15,000 yuan, the decline accounted for about 30% of the entire subsidy, accounting for the proportion of the entire car sales price is not very high.
Therefore, considering that the proportion is not very large, so the enthusiasm of consumers for new energy vehicles will not be greatly affected.
In addition, we see its strong growth trend, it should be said that in the European market there has even been a sharp rise against the trend, indicating that the entire consumer market is at the end of consumption. Whether it is the improvement of everyone's environmental protection concept or the more convenient driving experience brought by new energy vehicles, new energy vehicles have gained more acceptance from market users.
It is expected that the promotion at the market level will become the most important driving force for new energy vehicles in 2022 and even in the long run. That is to say, although the subsidy policy has declined, do not exaggerate this impact too much.
After the beginning of 2022, we have seen a sharp adjustment in the new energy vehicle related sector.
In our view, when the adjustment stabilizes, it is not excluded that it is another gold pit. When faced with short-term policy changes, if we ascend to the horizon, we will see that new energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles, are still an irreplaceable technical direction in the global carbon neutral roadmap.
At the market level, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached more than 20%, and the market is very receptive to it. In the future, the power of the entire market will become the most important driving force. In the future long cycle, the market share of new energy vehicles today is only 10% or 20%, and there is still considerable room for improvement in the future. （end）
The recent adjustment of the capital market has left many investors confused. But hope often takes root in the wilting cold of winter. Perhaps an exponential full-blown bull market is coming to us through the cold winter. This is the most important window of time for us to make money from personal investment.
Dao Ge will analyze the 2022 capital market in detail in terms of logic, data, track, target, trading method and discipline in the "Spring Ploughing: 2022 Family Wealth New Year Private Party".
In the coldest moments of winter, maybe we can be greedy a little. In 2022, we sincerely invite you to participate in the "Spring Ploughing: 2022 Family Wealth New Year Private Party", you can search for "Dao Ge Dao Finance" private message to reply to the "New Year's Meeting", and the assistant review and invite the participant.