Observing that | the DPRK is "intolerable" to its hostile policy toward the United States, will the peninsula shake again?

The Paper's reporter Chen Qinhan

With four consecutive missile tests, North Korea may begin to rethink how it will respond to the United States in the future.

According to KCNA, the sixth Politburo meeting of the Eighth Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea was held on January 19, and Kim Jong-un, general secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea, presided over the meeting. At the meeting, the meeting gave briefing on the us's "troubles and rash moves" toward the DPRK's sovereignty, and discussed the direction of its future response to the United States.

The Politburo of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea agreed that it is necessary to be more thoroughly prepared for a long-term confrontation with the United States, and has issued instructions to the relevant departments to re-examine the actions taken by the DPRK to establish a mutual trust relationship with the United States, and to discuss whether it is necessary to restart all activities previously suspended.

At the meeting, the DPRK once again characterized the United States as a "hostile entity", deployed "more powerful material means" to suppress the hostility of the United States against the DPRK, and hinted at possible future actions.

North Korea announced in April 2018 that it would abolish the Northern Nuclear Test Site and completely cease nuclear tests and test-fire of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). As north-U.S. dialogue stalled after the rupture of vietnam's Hanoi talks, Kim Jong-un warned at the end of 2019 that there was no need for the North Korean side to unilaterally abide by its decision to delay nuclear testing and develop intercontinental ballistic missiles. After two years, North Korea once again promised to speak to the United States.

"This is North Korea's 'final warning' to the United States." Li Feng, a researcher at the American Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the surging news (www.thepaper.cn) that at the meeting of the Politburo of the Workers' Party, the DPRK side firmly stated that it did not have any expectations for the United States. If the US side continues to adhere to the "hostile policy" toward the DPRK, the DPRK will also completely ignore the basic spirit of Singapore's DPRK-US joint statement and move toward the path of protracted confrontation.

Since the Biden administration came to power, the DPRK and the United States have gradually become sword-fighting from wait-and-see and tentative, and after several rounds of "confrontation", both sides seem to have lost patience and brought more uncertainty to the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

Shoot and sanction the wrist

This month, North Korea fired four missiles in two weeks, two launches of a single Hypersonic missile earlier, the latter two of its railway maneuver tactical missiles and the fourth of its tactical missiles at an airport near Pyongyang. Judging from the frequency of emission and the diversity of emission sites, they are rare.

According to the analysis of many experts, North Korea has demonstrated its weapons manufacturing capabilities through missiles and put pressure on the United States. But the North Korean side said that the move was for weapons acceptance. KCNA reported that the tactical missile test on the 17th was aimed at confirming the accuracy, safety and effectiveness of the weapon system.

Lee Ho-leung, a researcher at south Korea's National Defense Analysis Institute, told U.S. media that north Korea usually takes about three years from weapons planning to development to testing. Since the 2019 U.S.-North Korea Hanoi talks broke down, the dialogue between the two sides has stalled, and North Korea has used this period to develop weapons, and now is the time when a lot of testing is needed.

In response to the DPRK's test firing of hypersonic missiles on January 12, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said it hoped that all parties concerned would advance the political settlement process of the Peninsula issue in accordance with the two-track approach and the principle of synchronous progress in stages.

Biden could not sit still on the Korean Peninsula, announcing on January 12 that sanctions would be imposed on five North Korean officials in response to North Korea's recent ballistic missile test and that new sanctions would be sought by the United Nations. This is the first time the Biden administration has imposed sanctions on North Korea's weapons program.

The Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) quoted the Defense for Democracy Foundation (FDD) as saying that the Biden administration has been trying to talk to North Korea for the past year, abandoning the option of sanctions, which is a mistake, "even if negotiations are underway, we cannot abandon pressure and sanctions."

"Resorting to sanctions at every turn will not help resolve the Korean Peninsula issue and will only exacerbate the mood of confrontation." Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said on January 13 in response to US sanctions against the DPRK that China has always opposed any country's unilateral sanctions and so-called "long-arm jurisdiction" imposed on other countries in accordance with its domestic laws.

Since then, foreign media have reported that the United States and other countries have issued statements calling for additional sanctions against the DPRK in the UN Security Council. On January 21, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs once again responded that the Security Council had not discussed the arrangements for the so-called draft resolution on sanctions against the DPRK, and hoped that the members of the Security Council would focus on the long-term and overall situation, prudently view the current situation, focus on promoting the political settlement process of the Korean Peninsula issue, seriously consider the relevant proposals put forward by the Chinese side, and make positive efforts to stabilize the situation, accumulate mutual trust, and restart dialogue.

The DPRK and the United States exchanged New Year's greetings with missiles and sanctions, raising concerns that the two countries would return to the tense situation in 2017 with the threat of "anger and fire" with harsh words.

Regarding the current situation in the DPRK and the United States, the Sixth Politburo Meeting of the Eighth Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea made some judgments. The meeting enumerated the policies and actions of the United States against the DPRK since the "Kim Summit" in Singapore, accusing the United States of "seriously endangering the national security of the DPRK" and "slandering the dignity of the DPRK," and saying that the hostile policies and military threats of the US side had reached the "dangerous point where it can no longer be tolerated."

North Korea spoke harshly and kicked the ball to the United States. At this time, the Biden administration is struggling with mountains of domestic and foreign problems, the EPIDEMIC in the United States has not eased, prices have soared, the two parties are divided; in terms of diplomacy, Ukraine, Russia and other related issues are imminent.

"For Biden, even if action is taken, relations with North Korea will not be able to achieve results and political bonus points in the short term." Li Feng pointed out that in the past year, the Biden administration has used the North Korean nuclear issue as a lever to strengthen the trilateral relationship between the United States, South Korea and Japan to a certain extent, and then served the "Indo-Pacific" strategy of the United States. Under the current circumstances, Biden is more inclined to maintain the status quo and follow the Obama-era control policy line, and the DPRK-US relationship is likely to become more and more tense.

Slowly close the door to dialogue

Last year, on the eve of Biden's swearing-in as US president, Kim Jong-un said at the Eighth Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea that the key to establishing a new DPRK-US relationship lies in the abolition of the policy of hostility toward the DPRK by the United States and that the DPRK will "deal with the United States in accordance with the principle of using the strong against the strong and the good against the good." Since then, a series of moves by the DPRK have basically not departed from this principle.

The day after Biden took office, North Korea test-fired cruise missiles and fired them again two months later, frequently "carrying words" across the ocean, which is when the US government is brewing its policy toward North Korea.

After a three-month wait, the Biden administration's policy assessment of North Korea was released, announcing that it would seek diplomacy with North Korea in a "pragmatic way", but the assessment only had a framework, and the actual plan was still in the fog. In releasing its assessment, the White House claimed that the Biden administration had repeatedly tried to contact the North Korean side, and the North Korean side did not respond.

The reason why the DPRK did not respond is actually well known to the US side. In his congressional address, Biden called North Korea a "serious threat" to U.S. and world security and proposed "diplomatic and decisive containment" measures against North Korea. U.S. State Department spokesman Price issued a statement denouncing the human rights situation in North Korea.

In early May 2021, the KCNA published a statement by Kwon Jeong-geun, director of the U.S. Bureau of the North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs, describing the "diplomacy" advocated by the United States as nothing more than a flamboyant cloak to cover up their hostile behavior. This remark directly pokes at the US side for "inconsistency between words and deeds" and expresses dissatisfaction with the US policy toward the DPRK.

After being poured "cold water", Biden remained unchanged in the subsequent US-ROK summit, expressing his willingness to conduct diplomatic contacts with the DPRK and "not excluding meeting with the DPRK leader under certain conditions." He explained that the premise of the meeting was that the other side had a sincere discussion on abandoning nuclear weapons.

The United States' adherence to the condition of "abandoning nuclear weapons" means that there is no consensus with North Korea on strategic trust. There is also no mention in the statement of the US-ROK summit that the United States provides security assurances to the DPRK, which is the premise of dialogue that the DPRK has repeatedly stressed, and the United States has taken it for granted.

After Biden met with Moon, the United States lifted restrictions on the weight and range of South Korea's missile warheads. In response, KCNA published an article entitled "What is the Intention of Abolishing the 'Missile Guide'" criticizing the United States for "knowingly committing hostile acts."

After obtaining the missile "loosening", South Korea immediately made frequent moves in the field of missile weapons, successfully test-launching its self-developed submarine-launched ballistic missiles in September last year, and then successively released three new missile launches and videos of simulated target ships. North Korea saw the situation test firing of a new submarine-launched ballistic missile, and the situation gradually heated up.

Kim Jong-un said in June last year: "North Korea's position toward the United States is to be prepared for dialogue and confrontation, especially to be foolproof." "This is seen by the outside world as the balance of North Korea's policy toward the United States is beginning to tilt toward the confrontational end." Subsequently, another speech by the North Korean leader confirmed this.

In September 2021, Kim Jong-un said at the 5th meeting of the 14th Supreme People's Assembly that his actions in the eight months since the new US administration came to power clearly proved that the US military threat and hostile policy toward the DPRK have not changed. As a result of a series of actions by the United States, the pattern of international relations has changed to a "new Cold War" pattern.

Despite the Moon jae-in administration's efforts to create an atmosphere of U.S.-Inter-Korean dialogue, neither trilateral nor bilateral dialogue has made any progress. Kim Jong-un has made it clear at the Eighth Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea that the key to building a new DPRK-US relationship lies in whether the US side abandons its hostile policy toward the DPRK. If the United States does not take measures such as easing sanctions against the DPRK, there may be no hope for the DPRK to return to the negotiating table.

North Korea will see a number of important anniversaries in the coming months, including the 80th anniversary of the birth of the late North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong-il on Feb. 16 and the 110th anniversary of the birth of the late North's supreme leader, Kim Il Sung, on April 15.

Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Washington Arms Control Association, urged the Biden administration to pursue efforts around restarting nuclear negotiations, saying in an interview with the media: "The North Korean nuclear issue has not disappeared, and without active and serious diplomatic efforts, the problem will only get worse." ”

Editor-in-Charge: Zhang Wuwei

Proofreader: Luan Meng