Dictation / Wei Danjing
In this particularly fast-growing era, everything is full of uncertainty. From the very beginning of innovation, to the transformation of "Internet +", the Internet has become an infrastructure like water and electricity, and new technologies are still emerging, bringing many variables to investment and employment.
All along, readers have asked me the most about what industry I should go to, and the one that I ask the most in these two days has become: What is worth investing in 2020... Full of doubts and expectations for the future.
Today, we will talk about the future.
01
When judging the future, most people fall into two kinds of fallacies – the hot hand fallacy and the gambler's fallacy.
The hot hand fallacy comes from basketball. In basketball games, we often hear the commentator say that so-and-so player is now "hot in the hand", shooting continuously, scoring consecutively, so everyone believes that he will score the next shot.
The hot hand fallacy refers to this mentality: believing that things that have happened many times will continue to happen. For example, there have been housing bubbles in the United States, Hong Kong, and Japan. During the bubble period, house prices have been rising, everyone has earned more, so they all believe that house prices will continue to rise, and do not believe and refuse to believe that house prices will collapse one day.
The gambler's fallacy, which corresponds to the hot hand fallacy, is the belief that something has happened too many times will not continue to happen. In roulette, if you open a lot of black in a row, gamblers will be more inclined to bet on red. But in fact, the next one to open red and black is 50%.
The gambler's fallacy is an excessive paranoia, too much belief in the extreme of things must be reversed, but it is not accurate to judge where the "pole" is, for example, in the past decade, the stock price of Moutai in Guizhou has risen by an average of 28% per year, an increase of more than all stocks, and many people feel that the stock price of Moutai has come to an end every year, so they have watched moutai stock rise and missed this "white horse stock".
02
Believing that house prices will continue to rise or believing that Moutai stock prices will turn down is either too greedy and only willing to believe in a favorable outcome for themselves, or too confident, ignoring other possibilities, and eventually falling into a mindset.
Therefore, if you want to avoid falling into the error of judgment and make the right decisions when investing and employment, you must be vigilant against greed and cultivate a good attitude.
But this only allows us not to fall into the pit, and there is still a considerable distance from making accurate predictions and seizing future opportunities, as if we have crossed out a wrong option among many options, and we still do not know which one is the right option.
How can we make the right predictions?
Let's hear the success story of a big coffee maker.
In 2008, the Subprime Mortgage Crisis occurred in the United States, and most investment banks lost money, but Dr. Michael Bury operated against the market, shorting mortgage bonds early and making a lot of money.
The secret of Michael Bury's success is detailed and meticulous data research. In 2005, he identified the 20 hottest mortgage securities, looked at all of their mortgage data, and read the original data of tens of thousands of lenders behind these mortgage data, and finally judged that the mortgage market would have a huge problem in the second quarter of 2007.
Michael Bury in the movie The Big Short
Don't you think it's troublesome and hard?
This is true, but the really powerful investors are so tireless to verify the most accurate data, and some will go to the front line to do fieldwork and discover the truth of the market.
03
Some people will ask, as an ordinary person, just going to work is tired enough, where do you have so much time and energy to do research? Can it only be judged by feelings?
It is with this in mind that our team launched the annual paid report product "52 Intensive Reading Report" in February last year, which used data analysis to analyze various popular investment areas, such as blockchain, science and technology innovation board, pet economy, garbage classification, etc.
Recently, we have comprehensively upgraded the content and launched a new knowledge product, the "2020 Potential Industry Weekly Report", which will focus on the potential industry and provide you with a reference for decision-making on career choice and investment.
Every Wednesday, we publish a graphic report that analyzes the current situation and prospects of an industry. The data source of the report is more than 80 consulting institutions and professional institutions in various industries, such as PwC, Deloitte, McKinsey, Tencent Research Institute, UBS, etc., with diverse angles and accurate data to ensure that the conclusions are not biased; the report also strives to be more intuitive, easier to understand, and even more interesting, so it adopts the form of graphic report + audio interpretation, and can quickly understand an industry in 8 minutes.
There are four main dimensions in the content of the "2020 Potential Industry Weekly Report": the "new business" represented by private domain e-commerce, the "hard technology" represented by 5G and artificial intelligence, the "new trend" represented by artificial meat, real-time translation, and shared office, and the "new upgrade" of traditional industries such as finance, consumption, education, and entertainment.
Maybe in a certain week, people will see their own industry in the report and have more interest, so we will also provide the original report, 10 copies per month, up to 120 copies a year, with a total value of more than 10,000 yuan.
In addition, in the latest year's course, we also invited senior practitioners, research analysts and top investors as live broadcast guests to tell you about the new opportunities of this era.
We hope to use professional ability and careful preparation to sort out the changes that are happening and about to happen in each industry. If you want to avoid all kinds of judgment fallacies and see the future from various definite numbers, this knowledge product will be the best choice.
Click on the bottom left corner to claim a free 7-day Super Membership and learn the course