High-nickel battery market "new war"

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Polaris Energy Storage Network News: With the increase in the demand for high-nickel batteries in the main engine factory, from nickel and cobalt mining enterprises to cathode material companies to battery manufacturers, they are also accelerating the research and development of new high-nickel products and opening the production capacity expansion mode.

Global sales of new energy vehicles have surged, and the penetration of the high-nickel power battery market has accelerated.

On the application side, overseas electric vehicle sales have further increased, ternary batteries occupy the mainstream position, and high-end models mostly use high-nickel technology routes, driving high-nickel batteries including Ningde Times, Panasonic, LG Energy, Samsung SDI, SKI and other Sino-Japanese and Korean head battery companies to increase significantly in the international market.

On the supply side, japan and South Korea's head battery companies announced in 2021 that they will mass-produce or even have mass-produced ultra-high nickel battery products with a nickel content of more than 90%, thereby accelerating the industrialization process of upstream high-nickel precursors and high-nickel cathode materials.

At the same time, in order to ensure the stability of raw material supply and reduce procurement costs, head battery companies and OEMs are also actively laying out to the upstream raw material end, locking in the upstream high nickel cathode supply through strategic procurement or joint venture construction.

With the increase in the demand for high-nickel batteries in the main engine factory, from nickel and cobalt mining enterprises to cathode material companies to battery manufacturers, they are also accelerating the research and development and mass production of new high-nickel products and opening up the production expansion mode.

The high nickel cathode and high nickel power markets will enter a new stage of competition.

Demand for high nickel precursors/cathodes has surged

The downstream market demand is strong, stimulating the upstream lithium battery materials as a whole to enter a high state of prosperity.

Market data show that in the first half of 2021, the global NCM811 battery installed capacity increased by 276% year-on-year, driving a significant increase in NCM811 material shipments; the proportion of overseas high nickel cathode market increased to 38%, and the overseas high nickel trend became more and more obvious.

Shipments of high-nickel batteries from Sino-Japanese and Korean battery companies, including CATL, Panasonic, LG New Energy, Samsung SDI, SKI, etc., further increased, resulting in strong demand for high-nickel cathode materials.

Including Ronbay Technology, Bamo Technology, Dangsheng Technology, Zhenhua New Materials, Long-term Lithium and other domestic leading ternary materials enterprises in the first half of the year have experienced a substantial increase in shipments year-on-year. Among them, the shipment of high nickel cathode materials increased significantly year-on-year.

Among them, Ronbay Technology shipped more than 20,000 tons of ternary materials in the first half of 2021 (of which more than 90% were high-nickel ternary cathode materials), an increase of about 135% year-on-year, net profit and profit per ton increased significantly year-on-year, and the market share was further improved.

In the third quarter of 2021, Ronbay Technology achieved revenue of 2.66 billion yuan, an increase of 138.7% year-on-year, and net profit of 230 million yuan, an increase of 284.7% year-on-year. Among them, the sales volume of NCM811, Ni90 and above ultra-high nickel series products increased by about 20% month-on-month.

In addition, shipments of high nickel cathodes, including POHANG Chemical, L&F, Sumitomo Metal, Umicore and other foreign brands, also increased significantly year-on-year, mainly supplying the international market.

In order to meet the growing demand of the downstream market, the above-mentioned cathode material enterprises are actively expanding the production capacity of ternary materials, of which high-nickel cathode materials have become the focus of the new production capacity projects of the above-mentioned enterprises.

Cathode material enterprises in the expansion of high nickel cathode production capacity at the same time, but also a strong demand for high nickel precursors, huge purchase orders have landed, the domestic head ternary precursor enterprises benefited significantly.

For example, Grammy has signed two supply agreements with ECOPRO BM, a Supplier of Cathode Materials in South Korea, where ECOPRO BM will purchase a total of 826,000 tons of high-nickel ternary precursors from Grammy from 2021 to 2026, laying the foundation for the growth of Grammy Nickel Precursor market share.

At the same time, the export business of high-nickel precursors of Zhongwei Co., Ltd. also continued to grow, the proportion of the international market was further improved, the company's existing products high-nickel system accounted for more than 80%, and the demand for foreign supply exceeded that of China.

Overall, the continuous growth of downstream market demand provides a guarantee for ternary materials enterprises and precursor enterprises to accelerate the development of new products and expand high nickel production capacity, while first-line echelon enterprises will have stronger competitive advantages in terms of production capacity scale, product quality, product structure and customer groups.

The competition for the industrialization of ultra-high nickel batteries has heated up

While the shipment of high-nickel batteries continues to grow, the market competition of China, Japan and South Korea's head battery companies in the field of ultra-high nickel batteries has also heated up rapidly.

At Battery Day 2021, Musk unveiled its ultra-high nickel ultimate state battery with a nickel content of 100% and accelerated the mass production of its new 4680 battery.

On the high-nickel battery track, including CATL, Panasonic, LG Energy, Samsung SDI, SKI and other head players have mass-produced and supplied NCM and NCA batteries with a nickel content of more than 80%, and targeted ultra-high nickel batteries with a nickel content of more than 90%.

In early 2021, SKI revealed its new "SK Inside" brand strategy and showcased the latest NCM 9/0.5/0.5 system, reducing cobalt content to 5%.

SKI announced that it is ready to mass-produce the NCM 9/0.5/0.5 battery and is waiting for orders from automakers that can provide 700km of battery life and shorter charging times.

Samsung SDI showcased its latest battery technology at InterBattery 2021 in South Korea, including NCA batteries with a nickel content of more than 90%.

Samsung SDI confirmed that the company has begun to produce NCA cylindrical batteries with a nickel content of 91%, which will be used in the field of electric vehicles, and the commercialization of 91% nickel square NCA batteries will be delayed by several years. In the future, the nickel content of its high-nickel batteries will be further increased to 94% or even higher.

LG Energy will currently focus on the field of quaternary batteries, and plans to officially mass-produce NCMA ultra-high nickel batteries (nickel content 90%) and supply Tesla in 2021.

At the same time, LG Energy has also established a joint venture battery company with GM in the United States called Ultium Cells to produce and supply NCMA quaternary batteries for GM by 2022.

Panasonic, on the other hand, adheres to the NCA route on the high-nickel battery technology route, and has now supplied NCA batteries with a cobalt content of less than 5% to Tesla on a large scale, and said that it will increase the energy density of the 2170 cylindrical batteries provided to Tesla by 20% in the next five years, and plans to deliver cobalt-free batteries between 2022 and 2023.

CATL has mass-produced and supplied the first generation of NCM811 batteries on a large scale and has become the leader of high-nickel batteries in China. Its second-generation NCM811 battery will be added to the silicon carbon anode and a sample of high-nickel batteries with a specific energy of 304Wh/kg will be manufactured, or will be mass-produced in 2021.

China, Japan and South Korea's head battery companies have targeted the next generation of batteries with a nickel content of more than 90% or even completely cobalt-free high-nickel batteries or solid-state batteries, and formulated a relatively clear mass production schedule.

Under this circumstance, the international high-nickel materials and high-nickel battery market competition will also be further upgraded, thereby driving the rapid development of the high-nickel battery industry chain.

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