22/02/16
Lead
As long as there are enough fixed words, anyone can become a "pin crown".
Author 丨 Cui Liwen
Responsible editor 丨 Yang Jing
Edit 丨 Chic
"It was originally thought that the sales of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 4.8 million in 2022, and now it should be adjusted to more than 5.5 million units, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger cars will reach about 25%. New energy vehicles are expected to exceed 6 million, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is about 22%. ”
Not long ago, the Association of Automobiles has made a very optimistic forecast for the entire new energy market in 2022.
As an argument, in the fourth quarter of 2021, China's new energy passenger car sales have reached 1.3 million, with the domestic consumers' recognition of the new energy market significantly improved, the strength of policy subsidies is stable, will inevitably promote the total sales of new energy vehicles in China in 2022 soared.
As a bystander, some uncontrollable factors are removed, and finally "5 million vehicles, 20%" is regarded as a relatively stable phased goal for the entire new energy market this year.
As everyone knows, according to the terminal results recently released by the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 412,000 units in January, an increase of 141.4% year-on-year and a decrease of 18.5% month-on-month, which is consistent with the characteristics of January 2021.
Retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 347,000 units in January, up 132.0% year-on-year and down 27.0% month-on-month, in line with the 25% decline in January 2021.
In terms of penetration, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers in January was 19.0%, an increase of more than 10% compared with 8.4% in January 2021. The domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in January was 16.6%, up nearly 10% from 6.8% in January 2021.
Obviously, from the overall trend, it is moving in the expected direction. The stability of the entire market has risen and continued. Looking deeper from this, with the release of the subdivision sales list of new energy brands and models, some interesting and worth exploring phenomena have emerged.
1
Who is the new energy manufacturer sales champion?
As the subtitle of this paragraph states, similar topics will appear frequently in various articles at the beginning of each year. This time, several predictions for China's new energy market are also no exception. First of all, I want to discuss, who can win the manufacturer's sales crown?
In the past January, BYD temporarily topped the list with sales of 92,788 vehicles, an increase of 358.4% year-on-year compared with last year. What is certain is that after gradually playing out the "blade battery" and "DM-i hybrid technology", it successfully hit the consumer psychology of some end users, thus triggering a qualitative change caused by quantitative change.
SAIC-GM-Wuling, ranked second, sold 29,723 units in January, down y/y. Honestly, relying only on the support of a phenomenon-level A00-level pure electric car of Hongguang MINIEV, how long can the former continue to be strong? Or how to deal with the decline that has already occurred? Many questions are waiting to be answered.
Chery, on the other hand, rose to the 3rd place with two A00-class cars, eQ Ant and QQ Ice Cream, with a year-on-year increase of 185.2%. However, a problem similar to SAIC-GM-Wuling also wants to throw to this car company.
As for Tesla, which ranks 4th, in addition to BYD, another company is expected to impact the existence of the pin crown. In January, as usual, the Shanghai plant needed to prioritize export supply, with only 19,346 units sold in China. In fact, it does not have much reference significance.
This year, the top battle between the US new energy vehicle company and BYD will most likely enter a white-hot stage. In order to achieve the global target of 1.5 million vehicles a year, the former needs to sell at least 750,000 new cars in China. The latter dabbled in two tracks, plug-in hybrid and pure electric, and the annual sales target has been set at 1.2 million vehicles.
2
Who is the new energy car sales champion?
In fact, there is not much suspense about this single prediction. Referring to the final results of 2021, this year's sales crown will most likely be Wuling Hongguang MINIEV. After all, the A00-level pure electricity market is still in the "dividend period", and there is still a huge demand for similar products in lower-tier cities and even townships.
In January, in addition to Wuling Hongguang MINIEV in the list of new energy cars in the association, there was QQ ice cream in the 5th place, Chery eQ in 6th place, Euler Good Cat in 7th place, Roewe Coleway in 10th place, Zero Run T03 at no. 11, Sihao E10X in 12th place, and Euler Black Cat in 14th place.
From the overall share point of view, it still occupies the "half of the top 15 countries". However, in my mind, I always think that the heat of the subdivision sector in which the above models are located is quite high, more like a virtual fire.
Traditional independent brands are in the process of electrification transformation, and indeed can use these A00-level products to obtain a temporary "respite" and eat the corresponding "cake" of the market.
However, in order to achieve the qualitative change caused by the quantitative change in the true sense, it is also necessary to consider how to raise the brand and increase the gold content.
Otherwise, in the long run, it will inevitably be countered. When the "dividend period" belonging to the A00 level has really passed, Can Wuling Hongguang MINIEV really keep the single pin crown?
Don't forget, Tesla Model 3 and BYD Qin, neither of them is a good stubble. In addition, there are many more latecomers who are eager to try out new challenges.
3
Who is the new energy SUV sales champion?
Compared with the current situation of multiple A00-level models in the car sector, the terminal competition in the SUV sector may be more intense. The fundamental reason, or due to the general environment, Chinese consumers for the relevant models, the innate goodwill and preference, prompting whether traditional car companies, or new forces to build cars, more willing to use SUVs as a carrier, and cut into the market.
In January, BYD Song won the top spot, selling a total of 20,722 new cars, an increase of 2798.2% year-on-year. There is no doubt that with the launch of the new Song Pro DM-i, the product matrix of the entire Song series is becoming more and more perfect, and the choices are becoming more and more diverse.
In second place, in 2021, tesla Model Y, which has shown strong competitiveness, sold a total of 16,358 new cars. There is no denying that in Musk's vision, this pure electric SUV is committed to becoming the best-selling product in the world, including all fuel vehicles. And this year, as long as the production capacity does not have too many accidents, the domestic Model Y will inevitably launch a fierce attack on this single crown.
Ideal ONE, as the biggest hit in the head of the new forces to build cars, sales reached 12,268 in January, ranking third on the list.
The fundamental reason for such achievements, as has been said in the past, the answer seems to be concentrated: when the brand effect is more and more weakened, the younger generation of consumers have a variety of intelligent and technological needs for the product itself, and the ideal ONE has just seized this outlet. In addition, it is more cost-effective, cross-level functional configuration, more practical in-car space, accurate user positioning and even the super high execution of offline stores.
The 4th and 5th places in the January list were occupied by BYD Yuan and BYD Tang products. Such sales performance undoubtedly proves once again that after successive sacrifices of "blade battery" and "DM-i hybrid technology", BYD's strength really cannot be underestimated.
And what needs to be known at all times is that this year it will also carry out a very large-scale push, the entire ocean system, just obtained a sales license of Denza, including the upcoming high-end new energy brand, there are still many "bottom cards" still not played.
In summary, as far as the new energy SUV sector is concerned, the fierce competition for who is the top seller is still intensifying.
And for those runners who do not seem to have much opportunity to touch the manufacturer or the single model sales crown this year, there is no need to be discouraged. After all, past experience tells us that as long as there are enough fixed words, anyone can become a "pin crown".
Cui Liwen
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