(Source: Institute of Finance)
【Jingguan Lecture Hall】It is an annual training program of the Economic Observer Newspaper, inviting well-known people from the fields of economy, media, science, culture, law, business and other fields to teach common sense and new knowledge, share classics and innovations, and is an open class that helps improve the quality of the content of the economic observation and the impact of dissemination. This article is based on the speech of Guan Qingyou, president of the Institute of Financial Research, at the [Jingguan Lecture Hall].
Guan Qingyou, a well-known economist, is currently the president of the Institute of Financial Research and the founding partner of Ru capital, and has authored "The Logic of Oil", "How Far Is the Day After Tomorrow", "Dancing on the Blade", "New Normal Economy" and so on.
It is necessary to understand the capital market from the overall situation of China's development
First of all, I would like to share my views on some issues in the market and the stock market in conjunction with the meeting of the Financial Commission.
On the morning of March 16, the meeting of the Financial Commission of the State Council was held, and the stock market reacted significantly from 11 a.m. The market was probably going to run to 3,000 points, but when it fell to 3,023 points, it picked up again. For such a high-level meeting, such a stock market reaction is also reasonable.
The issues addressed at this meeting were all "real". For example, the special conference mentioned that "studying the current economic situation and capital market problems" was also said in the past to "study the economic situation", but this time a "capital market problem" was added, which is actually mainly a stock market problem, which is very critical.
It can be seen that senior leaders have also seen the continuous decline in the entire A-share and Hong Kong stock markets since the beginning of 2022. Even now we suspect that some international capital has organized shorting of A-share and Hong Kong stock assets, which has a great impact on China's economy and finance.
Judging from the press release of the meeting, this is a special meeting convened by the Financial Stability and Development Committee of the State Council, which means that this meeting is temporarily held for major topics and is also a targeted meeting. The meeting was presided over by Liu He, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, vice premier of the State Council, and director of the Financial Commission.
The points highlighted in the meeting actually responded to the doubts and market concerns of many people before. The first is to emphasize that in the current complex situation, the most crucial thing is to adhere to development as the first priority of the party's ruling and rejuvenating the country; the second is to reaffirm development and reaffirm the persistence in taking economic construction as the central task. Last year's Central Economic Work Conference also specifically talked about taking economic construction as the center, and similar words do not seem to make people feel anything, but if they are not said for a period of time, it is a very important phenomenon. It is very important to reiterate and emphasize it now.
So I think this meeting is actually mainly aimed at the economic downturn, especially the special meeting on the recent sharp decline in the stock market.
The meeting specifically mentioned the situation of macroeconomic operation, and also said very specifically, "to effectively boost the economy in the first quarter, monetary policy should take the initiative to deal with it", which is a specific requirement.
"New loans to maintain moderate growth", we can see that real estate has a lot of risk release, can even be said that the real estate field has actually appeared synthetic fallacy, since last year, there are many real estate companies continuous thunderstorms, which we did not expect and do not want to see. The meeting also specifically said, "With regard to real estate, it is necessary to study and propose a strong and effective risk prevention and resolution plan in a timely manner, and put forward supporting measures for the transformation to a new development model." We can't kill real estate with one stick, squeeze the bubble and squeeze the bubble, and the three red lines belong to the three red lines. Moreover, I think the three red lines may also need to be reflected in the current view.
The meeting also focused on the China Stock Exchange, which is of great interest to everyone. Because Chinese stocks have been "bloodbathed" in the US market, in recent times, almost every day has been a double-digit decline. The meeting mentioned that "with regard to Chinese stocks, the regulators of China and the United States have maintained good communication, made positive progress, and are working to form a specific cooperation plan", and reiterated that the Chinese government continues to support all kinds of enterprises to list overseas.
Regarding the governance of the platform economy, it is actually about anti-monopoly issues. The special meeting emphasized marketization and legalization, and specially emphasized standardized, transparent and predictable supervision, and steadily promoted and completed the rectification work of large platform companies as soon as possible. In fact, this is also the synthesis fallacy and some problems in the process of the so-called platform economy norm governance implemented in the early stage.
The special meeting also said that the red light and green light should be set up, which is in line with the important thesis that the central government should set up traffic lights for capital. The red light should be set well, and the green light should also be set well, in order to promote the stable and healthy development of the platform economy. I estimate that this year's platform economy governance and anti-monopoly will be more standardized, and the coordination of various departments may be much better than last year.
When talking about the stability of Hong Kong's financial market, the meeting specifically mentioned that regulators in the mainland and Hong Kong should strengthen communication and cooperation. Hong Kong stocks also rose sharply on the day of the meeting.
From my experience, some capital is actually organized "sniping" Chinese assets such as Chinese stocks, Chinese mainland markets. Of course, it is relatively difficult to "snipe" Chinese mainland assets, and the Hong Kong stock market is the most convenient place. This is indeed a bit like the "sniper" of Hong Kong dollars and Thai baht in 1998. Therefore, it is very important to emphasize that regulators in the mainland and Hong Kong should strengthen communication and cooperation.
There was also a paragraph devoted to the problem of the market, mainly the stock market. It was emphasized that relevant departments should earnestly assume their responsibilities, actively introduce policies that are beneficial to the market, and prudently introduce contractionary policies. These words are very familiar, because when the Central Economic Work Conference last year talked about stabilizing the macroeconomic market, it talked about introducing more policies conducive to economic stability and prudently introducing contraction-type policies. This time is also a continuation of the previous thinking, which can be said to be very important.
The meeting also specifically emphasized the need to respond to hot issues of market concern in a timely manner. "All policies that have a significant impact on the capital market should be coordinated with the financial management department in advance to maintain the stability and consistency of policy expectations." This sentence is very background, before many departments issued policies have had a greater impact on the capital market, and financial management departments have no right to interfere with the policies of other management departments, which has caused problems such as inability to coordinate, policy disorder, lack of buffering, etc., and the market also feels very poor.
So this sentence is actually a reminder that some departments do not realize that many things are related to the capital market, and may think that their policies are only related to their own departments, but they cause listed companies to fall and stop. In recent years, there have actually been many such situations, which is related to the fact that some government departments are not familiar with the capital market.
Now that this issue has been raised at the level of the Financial Commission and spoken of by the deputy prime minister in charge, many departments should be reminded. We also saw that the reason why it was mentioned at the meeting was that there were too many similar cases in the past. People who are familiar with financial markets should be very aware of this process.
The meeting also mentioned a problem, which I think is also more serious, that is, the Financial Commission of the State Council will increase coordination and communication in accordance with the requirements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and hold accountable when necessary. If this is required, many departments have been held accountable over the past few years. The influence of some departments on the market can be said to be a bit disregarded, and even some are self-conscious and arrogant, like a cow rushing into the porcelain shop, the porcelain did not move a few, most of them were smashed, which is definitely not OK. The capital market now occupies a very important position in the overall situation of China's national economy. To be honest, it may not help you make too much money, but it will have too much impact on the national economy. We need to be clear that this is not the stock market and bond market we were two decades ago.
Now this market, if it follows the continuous downward trend before this meeting and after New Year's Day, it will have a systemic problem, not only financial security issues, but even political security issues. We must understand the role and function of the entire capital market from the perspective of China's economy and even the overall development of China's development, and the negative impact it will bring once there is a problem.
The meeting also mentioned that financial institutions must proceed from the overall situation, adhere to support the development of the real economy, and welcome long-term institutional investors to increase their shareholding ratio. To put it in layman's terms, it is to guide institutions to buy stocks.
Finally, the meeting talked about "two establishments" and "two maintenance". "Maintain the long-term trend of China's healthy economic development and jointly maintain the stable development of the capital market", this statement has been very clear.
Based on the Xinhua News Agency press release, I have a few comments:
First, "the situation is stronger than the people," and this meeting was held in a very timely manner, and the deployment measures were relatively "realistic." In addition, the government work report at the "two sessions" mentioned the issue of the establishment of a financial stability fund. The Financial Stability Fund is not to let stocks rise or not to let stocks fall, but it is necessary to come out to maintain financial stability when there is a major systemic risk in this market that cannot be controlled.
Therefore, the government work report also specifically mentions the establishment of a financial stability fund, which I think is very necessary.
When we are faced with such a turbulent international and domestic situation, the financial market is not only a matter of stock markets, bond markets, convertible bond markets, it has involved the security of the entire national economic system. Especially after the Ukraine crisis, Western sanctions against Russia have dealt an almost devastating blow to the Russian economy. Therefore, financial stability, economic stability is of the utmost importance to us.
Moreover, China has been seized by international capital to short some policy mistakes and loopholes because it has a linkage mechanism. When I do economic analysis, I can clearly feel the rhythm of shorting: first do air stocks in the US stock market, a large number of Chinese stocks are also listed in Hong Kong stocks, and Hong Kong stocks are relatively easy to short, and short can also make money. There is also an A+H mechanism between Hong Kong stocks and A shares, and many companies are listed in Hong Kong stocks and A shares at the same time, which objectively affects the entire A-share market.
So you can see that in recent times, the northbound funds have been continuously outflowed, for example, on March 16, the northbound funds first threw away for a period of time, and then came back, because many stocks had fallen very sharply at that time, plus the prophets and foresights may also know that this meeting was held in the morning.
This kind of linkage short-selling, from a professional point of view, we have to admire the professional ability of short-selling institutions, which is carried out in accordance with the rules of the international market, if it is a problem with the company's fundamentals, it is understandable that the short-selling has led to a decline in the stock price. But if it is like Soros sniping at the Thai baht, sniping at the Hong Kong dollar, and sniping at the foreign exchange market in Malaysia, the economic and financial impact on the country is very huge.
This situation is not a simple stock market rise and fall problem, but a problem involving the security of the financial system, we have actually encountered a so-called financial war problem, we must have the awareness, measures and countermeasures of financial defense war.
At this special meeting, I dare not say that it is a response to the so-called financial defense war, at least to the sharp decline in the market and the systemic risks it brings, and there should be practical moves in the follow-up.
I estimate that the Financial Stability Fund will be formed faster and coordination with Hong Kong will be faster. It can be said that this meeting of the Financial Commission is to study the program and stabilize confidence. It is also equivalent to shouting at some institutions abroad, which is very important for stabilizing the market.
Will the market come out completely this time? Objectively speaking, based on past experience, not necessarily. The market shouted "bottom" for a long time, the last time the lowest fell to 3147 points, after a long shadow line appeared, everyone thought that it was "bottom", and the result was that the lowest fell to 3023 points on March 16.
The policy to the "bottom" is certain, but the market "bottom" is uncertain. However, according to the current attitude of our economy and markets, even if this is not the real market "bottom", it will not be too far from the bottom. A lot of people are worried that the market bottom may come back to around 2400 points, which I think is unlikely at the moment, unless there are more frightening factors.
Attach importance to expanding domestic demand
In the second part, I would like to talk about the regulatory policies in recent years, the implementation of supply-side structural reforms, and whether a series of measures to stabilize China's growth this year can achieve the goal in light of the economy in January and February.
On March 16, the Financial Commission meeting talked about really reinvigorating the economy in the first quarter. The economy did not cheer up in the first quarter, especially since February, the national epidemic has been relatively lethal to the entire economy.
Due to the uncertainty of the epidemic, the crisis in Ukraine, and the pressure from the United States, this year there has indeed been a greater disagreement about the overall economic outlook than in the past. As early as the end of last year, many of the predictions of the Chinese economy in 2022 by international institutions were only about 4%, and the US economy may grow by 4% in 2022. Others believe that China's economic growth in the first quarter may be zero.
At present, the pressure for steady growth in the first quarter is still relatively large, and this year's "two sessions" government work report set the target for economic growth at about 5.5 percent. The Prime Minister explained that last year it was 6% and this year it was 5.5%, and he said that steady progress is progress. Based on the chinese government's previous experience in setting targets, 5.5 percent will certainly be achieved. Because it can be dismantled from investment, real estate, infrastructure construction, manufacturing investment, consumer exports and other aspects of indicators.
The rhythm of economic growth this year should be "low before and high after", the downward pressure in the first quarter is relatively large, and the second quarter may slowly take effect. Because in the first quarter, we still have to take into account the impact of the epidemic, the overall realization of dynamic zero is not over, coupled with the Spring Festival effect in January and February, I estimate that if the epidemic can be stabilized in the second quarter, stable growth will continue to see the effect.
I advocate a drastic relaxation of real estate and auto policy. Under the background of insisting on not speculating in housing and de-financializing real estate, all localities should release real estate as soon as possible and comprehensively according to local conditions, and completely reverse the current pattern of weakening expectations in the real estate market.
The automobile market, I also recommend 8 cities, especially Beijing to open up. I made a calculation that last year's full year of car sales of 25 million, if we can fully liberalize the car, we can increase the sales of 7.8 million vehicles, which is a very large demand expansion and pull.
Real estate is even more so, the so-called liberalization of real estate is not to let everyone speculate on the house, but to let this market truly achieve "two maintenance" - to maintain the healthy and stable development of the real estate market, to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers. Real estate and automobiles, as our traditional areas of stable consumption and expansion demand, need to be liberalized. It is not enough now, and the role of supporting the economy is not enough.
This is also what many people care about, why it can't be passed from wide money to wide credit. On the one hand, it is because the original way we pass on is that as soon as the gate of real estate currency is loosened, the currency is passed down through the real estate channel. Residents add leverage to buy houses, and the whole cycle turns. And now it is impossible to loosen the currency gate as in the past, driving the real estate market to explode and driving the entire demand up. At present, there is no field that can replace the current status of real estate, which is also a very important reason why wide money to wide credit cannot be passed on.
Another reason is that the demand of the real economic sector is insufficient. The impact of the epidemic, coupled with the simplicity and brutality of some policies, has greatly affected the confidence of entrepreneurs. This situation is indeed as stated at the Central Economic Work Conference, and we are now facing triple pressures: contraction in demand, supply shocks and weaker expectations. The immediate priority is to address expectations that have weakened.
Of course, now that the economy has gone down to this extent, including the meeting of the Financial Commission, the point is very clear. I think this is a year of policy correction, and it is also a year of policy friendliness. We should also really systematically review and reflect on some of our gains and losses in financial supervision and supply-side structural reform in recent years.
Supply-side reform is very important, "three to one to reduce and one to make up" is also very important, but also achieved some results, at the same time, we should also pay attention to the supply and demand from the two dimensions of view. When the growth rate enters the process of high-speed growth to medium-high growth, high-speed growth to high-quality development, the supply side is indeed very important. Deleveraging, destocking, making up for shortcomings, and reducing costs are all understandable, but I think demand is still a major "focus point" that should be exerted in the future.
In terms of demand, China is still a developing country after all. We still have 600 million people with a monthly income of less than 1,000 yuan, and there is still a gap between urban and rural areas and a regional gap. From this point of view, how we release their needs is the driving force for our economic reform or the next round of sustainable economic development, and it is also an essential problem.
How to release the needs of these groups, whether it is a demand problem or a consumption problem, is a function of income. Therefore, how to continue to increase their income is the biggest problem, but also the biggest difficulty now.
The demand is there, and the supply will of course change. In the past, we talked about "Say's Law", where supply automatically creates demand, and that was an economic problem. There are also many entrepreneurs who say that it is to create, to create so-called new things, so that there will naturally be a demand. This is a two-dimensional problem, a macroeconomic problem and a microeconomic problem.
From the supply point of view, for example, involving pollution and double carbon, it is necessary to carry out supply-side structural reform through environmental protection and energy consumption indicators. To improve the quality of service and improve the business environment, this is no problem. But how to release the demand? How to make demand sustainable, expand domestic demand, and realize the "new development pattern with the domestic large cycle as the main body and the domestic and international dual cycles promoting each other" that has been mentioned in recent years is a major problem.
Judging from the current situation, the focus of our policies should still be on expanding domestic demand so that demand can be sustained. I don't deny the importance of supply-side structural reform, but the management of the demand side, the expansion of the demand side may be more important, and we are conditional.
Grasp China's opportunities in the international situation
In the third part, I would like to refer to the international situation. Marked by the Crisis in Ukraine, the world as a whole has entered a new order, although this order has not yet been fully formed. Although we don't know what it looks like now, the state we used to be familiar with is definitely gone. The Ukraine crisis should be a major historical event after World War II, in addition to the oil crisis and the collapse of the Soviet Union, another major event that changed the world, which has had a direct or indirect impact on us.
What will the new world structure be? First of all, Europe will become more united and become a very important "one strong" in the "one superpower and many strong". It is unclear whether Germany has begun to increase its military spending and rearmament to protect itself, whether this will lead to a new round of the arms race.
Second, the relationship between China and the United States is now more delicate, in the formation of a new state since the 2018 trade war. In the coming period, how we handle Sino-US relations, China-EU relations, and Sino-Russian relations will be particularly important. In general, we are sober-minded now, we don't want to be tied to anyone, no one has the ability to tie China to their chariot, and there are indeed very subtle things involved here.
Third, russia's economic blow this time is not an ordinary blow, almost a devastating blow. Russia's economy is now only 1/10th of China's, smaller than Guangdong and Jiangsu. Ukraine's economy is roughly equivalent to 1/10 of Russia's. I think the Ukraine crisis is likely to last a long time, but overall, its impact on international financial markets, the worst time has passed.
The environment we are facing today is that Sino-US relations have changed qualitatively from being relatively close. Russia is suffering from sanctions from the entire Western world, and we have also made humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. Overall, the ideal for China is to pull in Europe and ease relations with the United States, and to do its own thing. Whether it is war or friction, it is not a good thing for the people.
We must realize that peace and development, which we have always talked about, are the two major themes of the world today, and we cannot say that we have completely changed, but our connotation has undergone very great changes, and our entire external environment has undergone very great changes. Overall, if China can handle the current international situation well, it can continue to extend our period of strategic opportunities. Under the current international situation, externally, we can be relatively flexible, not to choose sides and not to form alliances; internally, we treat the people with leniency, rest with the people, and correct some unreasonable policies in the past.
The year of "catastrophe and pandemic" is the need to rest with the people, give full play to the vitality of market players, and stimulate everyone's vitality. Let everyone be willing to create wealth, willing to make money, dare to make money. Be able to open up many areas and give everyone more opportunities to choose from.
The coming years will be a crucial year for China. We must cross the middle-income trap, solve the quality problem of Sino-US relations, achieve industrial upgrading, solve the problem of card neck, and solve the problem of common prosperity. But as long as we keep our heads clear, don't make big mistakes, and continue to do our internal things well, there is no big problem.
Judging from the international situation, China and the United States have reached a stage where they have to face so-called economic and technological competition. We should also be clear that there is still a big gap between China and the United States in many areas. If we can handle international events such as the Ukraine crisis well, our strategic window period will be greatly extended.
【Question Session】
Q: Teacher Guan, on the morning of the 16th, A shares were still falling, and Hong Kong stocks rebounded slightly. After the meeting of the Financial Stability Committee of the State Council, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have risen sharply, how do you think that the reactions of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are not synchronized?
Guan Qingyou: I think it may be like this, first, Hong Kong stocks have indeed fallen a lot recently, and every day the funds going south are net inflows into the Hong Kong market, and the basics of entering the Hong Kong market last year are buried in it. This year I estimate that there may be some bottom-ups that can have good returns. Second, although the A shares have fallen a lot now, to a process of killing more, if it is not the morning of the 16th, many institutions are taking 3000 points as a support point, after 3000 points are broken, the downward bottom is unfathomable. I think Hong Kong stocks may have indeed fallen too much, and some of the short-selling institutional shorts are almost the same, I can only guess.
Q: There is good news from both China and the United States, china has a meeting of the Financial Commission, and the US PCAOB (Public Company Accounting Supervision Committee) said that it has communicated with china's securities regulators and has made some progress in the regulatory conflict. From the news side, it is indeed good for A shares and Hong Kong stocks, does this mean that the market rebound is more emotional news? And not the effect of the essential fundamentals or the removal of bearish factors?
Guan Qingyou: This communication between China and the United States actually had information on the 15th, but the market did not look at it at all, nor did it matter. I myself understand that Hong Kong stocks or A shares are no longer a matter of fundamental decisions, it involves many aspects, such as the news that many foreign investors may be worried or even in the manufacturing of the United States to take further measures against China, there are also the use of China's so-called stable growth is not as expected, everyone's pessimism about economic fundamentals, and a series of policy adjustments about China and so on.
Fundamental problems, A shares digested almost, like the morning of the 16th to rub to 3000 points, really not a fundamental problem. There are also many people who joke that because the data said by the statistics bureau on the 15th is too good, the policy may not be too loose. Seeing these few good data will lose judgment on the economy, but it is not so bad, you see the meeting of the Financial Commission also talked about cheering up the economy in the first quarter.
I think it's important to ease emotions in this matter. The meeting of the Financial Commission is a multi-department together, which is different from the separate department of the People's Bank of China, which is basically equivalent to saying, there is money in the pocket, and the attitude is very clear to tell you.
You say that the market is not bottoming out, this is not necessarily true, but the policy is definitely very clear. The emotional side has been greatly eased, and whether the subsequent emotions will change will have to be seen.
I looked at the volume, and the rise on the 16th was less than the volume of the panic fall on the 15th. That's certainly not ok, this is not yet the trend completely reversed, but the mood has eased significantly.
Q: The capital market is facing many levels of influencing factors, such as the Fed's interest rate hike, and China's economy has to pass a lot of "hurdles" this year, how do you think about these factors and the transmission and solution of the problem?
Guan Qingyou: Regarding the problem of the economic downturn in the first quarter, it has actually been reflected in the stock market for a long time, and it has begun to fall since New Year's Day, and even since the fourth quarter of last year, everyone feels that wide currency to wide credit cannot be passed on, can not be achieved, very pessimistic. When you see the data improve, this market should actually be up long ago.
So the fundamentals are certainly important this year, but I personally feel that the recent market trend has not reflected the fundamentals, or the pessimism on the fundamentals is reflected in the market trend to a considerable extent.
This so-called improvement in sentiment is at least not a bad thing, after all, the current economic downturn coupled with the epidemic, unemployment pressure is so great. Last year, Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the central bank, said that it is not possible to say that it is not possible to say that only one department can work together, and it is necessary to supplement coordination and not dismantle each other.
Q: Whether it is Russia, or Ukraine, especially Russia, the impact on commodities is relatively comprehensive, including energy, metals, and agricultural products. Since the war lasted, the price of commodities has risen across the board, and the increase has been very large, what kind of trend will the follow-up commodities be?
Guan Qingyou: The commodity market as a whole has entered a high-price cycle, although the oil price has returned from 130 to about 100, but overall, the high-price cycle has been formed. Whether there is a Ukrainian crisis or not is actually irrelevant, the Ukrainian crisis has actually exacerbated this situation, especially the hype in the market. Without this, the commodity market, represented by natural gas, has also entered a high-price position.
This is the characteristic of this industry, because after 2008, the continuous capital expenditure has decreased, there is no investment, coupled with the bad economic situation in recent years, the epidemic is serious, the oil-producing countries have no money, and the production capacity cannot be expanded. By the second half of 2020, it is just falling into the transition from a low price cycle to a high price cycle. Once this transformation is formed, it does not end immediately, at least for three or five years. Considering the implementation of the "double carbon" target, commodity prices are likely to remain at a high level for a long time. Because oil is the king of bulk, the price of oil goes up, and other commodities can't come down.
Q: Is it difficult for the US to raise interest rates in the future to affect the process of high prices?
Guan Qingyou: Raising interest rates in the United States may alleviate inflation to a certain extent, but it will not solve inflation. Because this round of so-called inflation is mainly caused by the contraction of supply, it is the contraction of the supply of upstream commodities, the price goes up, and it is transmitted to the middle and lower reaches.
U.S. water releases also have an impact on inflation, but I don't think it's the main factor, the main factor is the contraction of supply, and it is a long-term contraction. The entire world economy must have entered a high inflation stage, and the future solution to the problem of high inflation is to improve the tolerance for inflation, the original inflation target of 2%, and then may be 4%. Either in the past, china started to produce horsepower and absorbed commodity prices, there is no so-called inflationary pressure, but now it is anti-globalization, so I think inflation may last for a long time, and we have to adapt to inflation.
Q: The regulators have been shouting many times since October last year to maintaining the stability of the real estate market, but in fact, we have learned that the supervision of pre-sale funds and financing loans has not landed on the front line, and many companies with relatively good fundamentals have exploded. How will the real estate regulation end next?
Guan Qingyou: I don't think it will end up, many cities will relax this year, because financial institutions have actually relaxed in terms of mortgage interest rates and loan amounts.
I often say this, you can not like it, but you can not beat it to death, this is not a rational choice, this year will definitely have to correct the deviation.
Q: The data on medium- and long-term loans to residents released by the central bank in February, for the first time in 15 years, has a negative number, in fact, it can be seen that everyone's willingness to buy a house is significantly reduced, rich people will not buy, and those who want to buy odd jobs cannot buy.
Guan Qingyou: It is very difficult to break this expectation and want to reverse it. This involves a question of seeking truth from facts in economic management, and practice has proved that houses are used to live, not to speculate, and of course not to fall. When house prices are expected to fall, people can't afford to buy a house. Many people may disagree, but if you think about it, is that the case? That is, once the real estate market enters negative feedback, the leverage collapses, affecting more people. Many people who could have jumped on their feet and could afford to buy a house couldn't afford it. So many people can't get a job, how to buy a house? You can't make chips for everyone. We still have to look at some of the more important industries in the traditional economic field in a realistic manner.
Q: Like this round of real estate regulation, many companies and regulators did not think that it could stand up for so long and be so strict.
Guan Qingyou: There is indeed a certain risk in real estate, but if you beat it to death, it really becomes a gray rhinoceros.
Question: In the government work report of this year's "two sessions," it is necessary to explore a new development model immediately after the premises of housing and not speculation. At the meeting on the morning of the 16th, supporting measures for the transformation of real estate to a new development model were also proposed. What do you think of this new model and the complementary measures it needs?
Guan Qingyou: This is indeed the same lineage, and real estate will become more and more structured from the perspective of industry development. To put it bluntly, the overall amount of construction is enough, the per capita construction area is 37 square meters, and the per capita living area is close to 30 square meters, which has reached the international average, and has entered a state of total balance but structural imbalance. For the real estate industry, it itself also has to transform, in the past, it was mainly to build houses, and now the probability of making money in residences is not so large, and there are not so many houses for you to build.
Real estate does have a problem of transitioning to a new development model, but policy guidance and good service can be done. Whether a real estate enterprise can transform or not, where to transform, is up to itself. Of course, it is right to advocate the transformation to a new development model and provide good supporting measures.
What is the New Development Model? Many real estate companies are actually already in the transformation, one is that if you originally do housing, you have to do more refined, more accurate; second, to urban renewal, old city transformation to transform, because this demand is very large, old city transformation, urban renewal profit is not as thick as doing residential, it is very thin, real estate companies need to make big money from making fast money, to making slow money to make small money. For example, Beijing can often see elevators installed in old residential areas, which is what real estate enterprises have to do. Another is the construction of rental housing, the government entrusts you to build rental housing, giving you a certain and reasonable profit, it is impossible for you to sell according to the market price of commercial housing.
Therefore, the transformation of real estate to a new development model, the government mainly advocates good and provides good supporting service measures. Whether from the real estate enterprise itself, or the idea of housing and housing not speculation, real estate enterprises must transform to a new development model, from making fast money to making slow money, from making big money to making small money. (Ding Wenting/Finishing)
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