Source: Truck Home
Author: Zhang Yuanyuan
Oil prices are up again! Affected by the recent high volatility of international crude oil prices, the momentum of "six consecutive increases" in domestic refined oil retail prices has landed.
In the face of the recent continuous increase in "oil prices", some insiders pointed out that the domestic gasoline and diesel prices in the early stage were supported by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the main gasoline and diesel in various regions of the country have risen to the wholesale limit price sales, although the crude oil has been widely explored in the past two days, the domestic oil price has remained high, and the price limit and controlled sales are still maintained. It is expected that domestic diesel prices will continue to remain high and strong in the short term.
In the oil price continues to maintain a "high" state, many card friends have said that in the downturn in freight conditions can not support the continuous rise in oil prices, many card friends have expressed a point of view: is the era of electric trucks coming?
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In the final analysis, it is actually the "money" that causes it
For such a view, not only our card friends, many consumers in the passenger car market have agreed with this attitude, and even once there was a post on the Internet that in addition to the impact of the "Russian-Ukrainian conflict", the rise in oil prices is also related to the world is vigorously promoting clean transportation, just as senior US government officials have repeatedly shown that encouraging people to buy new energy vehicles, linking the economic pressure brought about by the soaring oil prices.
In recent years, whenever oil prices have risen sharply, there have always been voices for people to buy electric vehicles, and in the final analysis, it is the disaster of money.
However, when purchasing for the first time, the price of new energy electric vehicles does not occupy any advantage. According to the approximate estimate, in the model classification of our common tractor, the difference between new energy (including electric, hybrid models; excluding hydrogen energy models) models and traditional fuel models is as little as 30,000-40,000 yuan, and more can reach more than a dozen or even hundreds of thousands of yuan.
And according to CCTV financial reports, since entering March, nearly 20 new energy vehicle companies have announced price increases, involving nearly 40 models, with a price increase of as little as 1,000 yuan and as much as tens of thousands of yuan.
The reason for the price increase of new energy models may lie in the current difficulty of finding chips, the continuous rise of lithium carbonate, the international status quo of soaring nickel prices, coupled with the new crown epidemic, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and other reasons that have further exacerbated the supply chain crisis caused by the shortage of raw materials, and the cost growth caused by this series of shortages and crises is bound to be passed on to the card friends. The trend of further increasing the price of new energy pure electric vehicles is inevitable.
Are electric cars really more economical than traditional fuel cars?
In terms of primary expenditure (car purchase), electric trucks are generally more expensive than traditional oil trucks; so how does electric vehicles perform in actual operation?
Assuming that the difference between traditional fuel vehicles and new energy models is calculated according to 100,000 yuan and No. 0 diesel according to 7.6 yuan a liter, 100,000 yuan can allow us to add about 13,200 liters of No. 0 diesel fuel to our cardyou; and then according to the average 100-kilometer fuel consumption of 25 liters (laping light truck, medium truck, heavy truck), 13,200 liters of oil is only enough for our cardmate to run about 53,000 kilometers.
If we add the additional loss of traditional fuel vehicles such as urea and oil, we can actually draw a conclusion: in terms of car cost, the cost of electric vehicles is indeed lower.
Speaking of which, some card friends may say, "Does charging take no time?" Have you ever calculated the cost of time? Indeed, the mileage and replenishment time of pure electric new energy models have always been the shortcomings that restrict their rapid development.
For the problem of mileage anxiety of new energy vehicles, our country has begun to focus on the research and development of a new "three electricity" system and the use of "power exchange" energy supplementation methods to solve.
The sales model of "separation of vehicle and electricity" can greatly reduce the financial pressure of users, while the "power exchange mode" is a more efficient way of replenishing new energy, which is not only suitable for the point-to-point heavy truck transportation market, but also suitable for the urban distribution market with a daily mileage of no more than 300 kilometers, and the problem of charging time is solved by replacing the power station in 3-5 minutes.
So we can basically draw a point of view, at this stage, at the level of first-time expenditure (car purchase), the price of electric vehicles is generally higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles, but in actual operation, the overall operating cost of electric vehicles is significantly lower than that of traditional fuel vehicles.
A good time to start with pure electricity? There are still many difficulties to overcome
In addition to the problem of mileage anxiety, it is still too early to fully popularize pure electric new energy vehicles at this stage; after all, there are still many problems such as high prices, less charging network layout, and second-hand car residual value that need to be overcome.
1, the price of the problem, the high price of electric vehicles, has become the first constraint on user purchase. The world-renowned consulting agency UBS has previously released a study that at least in 2024, electric vehicles will be closer to fuel vehicles in terms of vehicle cost.
2, the charging network layout is small: in the previous Xiaobian for the new energy city with light truck users found that the biggest problem is the problem of "uneven piles". Although all parts of the country have issued policies for the rapid development of charging stations/stations/piles, it still takes time to fully layout the charging field/station/pile from the perspective of the gas station network that has been developed for many years.
3, the problem of second-hand car residual value cost: this involves a problem of retention rate, I believe many card friends know that nowadays, the second-hand retention rate of electric vehicles is significantly lower than that of traditional fuel vehicles, which not only involves the problem of battery life, but also a problem of product update iteration.
Because the development and iteration speed of pure electric vehicles is relatively fast, buying a pure electric light truck with a range of about 200 kilometers this year is likely to be replaced by products with an endurance of 300 kilometers next year. In response to this problem, the relevant state departments have also been making efforts, but it will still take some time for the power battery and drive motor in pure trams to be included in the scope of the free replacement of the assembly.
However, with the rapid progress of technology and the rapid layout of the charging network, I believe that it will not be long before the above problems and difficulties will be overcome, and perhaps on that day, the spring of new energy pure electric trucks will really arrive.