Subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles will be terminated at the end of 2022. For some time, lithium prices have soared, chip shortages, insufficient charging pile support, and even the recent price increase in new energy passenger vehicles, which have frequently triggered public discussion. In the era of post-subsidy for new energy vehicles, what kind of incentive policies will we need to support the stable development of the new energy vehicle market, help the technological progress of the new energy vehicle market, and support the realization of the "double carbon" goal of the transportation industry?
Recently, the media workshop "Adjustment and Change of New Energy Vehicle Policy Under the Change" organized by the Energy Foundation and Southern Weekend was held online, and the workshop invited experts and media to conduct in-depth discussions on these hot topics.
The comprehensive effect of purchase subsidies on promoting the development of the new energy automobile industry is the most obvious, and trucks are the most critical challenge for the full electrification of automobiles
"The rapid growth of new energy passenger car sales has supported the growth of total car sales in 2021."
In this media workshop, Gong Huiming, senior project director of the transportation project team of the Energy Foundation, introduced the mainland automobile development market. "In March 2022, the market penetration rate of new energy passenger cars in the mainland reached 28.2%, which has exceeded the target set by the state of about 20% for the market penetration rate of all new energy vehicle models in 2025."
At the same time, at this stage, mainland buses have achieved full electrification, bus sales have entered the platform period, and the overall sales of trucks continue to grow, but the proportion of truck electrification is low, of which only 2% are mild electric trucks, and only 1% are medium and heavy-duty electric trucks, "truck electrification has become the most critical challenge for the full electrification of automobiles".
Gong Huiming, Senior Project Director of the Transportation Project Group of the Energy Foundation, shared "The New Stage of China's New Energy Vehicle Market Development and the Challenges and Opportunities"
In recent years, the high-quality and rapid development of new energy vehicles in the mainland is inseparable from the industrial policy of new energy vehicles.
Liu Bin, chief expert of China Automotive Technology and Research Center, and his team have analyzed and studied the effect of incentive policies for new energy vehicles from 2018 to 2019. They combined the analysis of the flexibility coefficient of the policy and the weight coefficient of the indicator to measure the relative contribution of the policy tools to the development of the industry, and finally concluded that from the perspective of the central policy, the industrial policy of new energy vehicles is generally effective, and the purchase subsidy has the most obvious comprehensive effect on promoting the development of the industry, with a contribution of 54.83%, and the contribution of the second place tax preferential policy is 15.38%.
They also found that different policies have different emphases on the direction in which they produce results. Purchase subsidies and tax incentives are important policy factors driving technological progress, contributing more than 60% of the total. In terms of the effectiveness of marketing, the contribution of transport support policies (16.01%) is second only to the contribution of purchase subsidies (51.87%). At the same time, the policy system still has certain defects, such as excessive subsidy dependence on industrial production and sales.
At the local policy level, they used the tool model to quantify the monetization benefits of various support policies and found that the monetization quantitative benefits of the unrestricted right-of-way convenience policy for new energy trucks were the highest, reaching 131,400 yuan, followed by the monetization income of the license fee concession under the unrestricted purchase policy, with an average of 84,000 yuan. It should be noted that "the monetization benefits of the same policy are different in different scenarios".
Liu Bin, chief expert of China Automotive Technology and Research Center, shared the "Analysis and Evaluation of Incentive Policies for New Energy Vehicles"
Based on the above research, Liu Bin and his team built a new energy vehicle incentive policy toolkit from production, research and development, purchase and use as a policy reserve. "For example, in the research and development link, the central and local governments can do innovation platforms and research and development funding support." In the production process, policies including oem, consumption tax, commercial vehicle points, enterprise income tax, and industrial funds can be adopted. In view of future cost changes, they suggest that different policy combinations be considered for private passenger cars, city buses, long-distance buses, urban logistics and freight logistics, so that the comprehensive cost of new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles can be balanced, and consumers will be promoted to change to new energy vehicles faster.
Vehicle electrification requires refinement, precision, and differentiation
According to the development stage and challenges of the mainland new energy vehicle market, as well as the implementation effect of different policies, Gong Minghui believes that the policy support required for different models and different application scenarios is very different, and "the three stages of automobile electrification still need refinement, precision and differentiation."
He said that the electrification of trucks is still in the "horse" stage, and economic incentives and non-economic management methods are still very important. Diesel trucks account for a relatively high proportion of pollutants and carbon emissions, and light, medium and heavy goods vehicles are sold less and the degree of electrification is low. "Subsidies and tax relief policies should focus on the current technology, market supply and consumer demand, and precise policies for the central truck industry, which still has a relatively large adjustment."
The electrification of passenger cars has entered the "give away" stage. Gong Huiming suggested that the key to subsequent development depends on the support of charging infrastructure in place to achieve no worries about car purchases, and at the same time, clarifying the comprehensive electrification timetable as soon as possible will help accelerate the electrification of passenger cars into the "sprint run" stage.
At the same time, the pilot demonstration of comprehensive electrification in first-tier provinces and cities will help drive the national market, but these cities will face different challenges.
"Beijing has set a target of 2 million new energy vehicles in the city by 2025, which is very challenging." Ren Huanhuan, director of the data business department of China Automobile Data Co., Ltd., China Automotive Technology and Research Center, believes that this means that the replacement volume of new energy vehicles for fuel vehicles in Beijing every year is very large. For places where the promotion of such new energy vehicles has better results and higher target requirements, what needs to be broken through is how to replace these stocks of cars.
"I think there are great policy adjustments and policy innovations at the replacement level, such as setting up zero emission zones." Ren Huanhuan said.
Four experts participated in the thematic dialogue session
In view of the policy direction of the post-subsidy era, Liu Bin put forward six suggestions: first, strengthen the incentive role of double integral management and give full play to the long-term incentive mechanism of the market; second, for medium and heavy trucks, especially heavy trucks, it is also necessary to give purchase subsidies or preferential support to make up for the difference; third, it may also need continuous tax support to reduce the cost of purchase and retention; fourth, comprehensively formulate transportation support policies for the use of links; fifth, Encourage qualified localities to explore the formulation of policies for zero-emission zones or low-emission zones; sixth, comprehensively promote the construction of charging facilities, including land security, awards, technological innovation, and so on.
Subsidies shift from the car side to the charging end
With the increase in sales of new energy vehicles, the society's call for improving charging infrastructure and improving charging technology is getting higher and higher. In the first quarter of 2022, the national charging infrastructure increased by 492,000 units, and the increase in public charging infrastructure increased by 96.5% year-on-year, slower than the sales growth of new energy vehicles in the first quarter.
"The current charging infrastructure meets the basic needs of users." Li Lili, a special researcher at the Sichuan Energy Internet Research Institute of Tsinghua University, believes that in the future, subsidies for the new energy automobile industry should shift from the automobile end to the infrastructure of the charging end.
"If more charging facilities are built, it will help reduce the cost of the car." He pointed out that there are still two outstanding problems in the charging infrastructure of light vehicles such as passenger cars, one is that there are still certain obstacles to the installation of charging piles by residents with fixed parking spaces, and the other is that high-speed charging is difficult and the facilities in cities, towns and rural areas below the third line and below are insufficient.
In this regard, Li Lili and his research team put forward three aspects that need to be strengthened in the future in the subsidy of charging infrastructure: one is to strengthen public security, strengthen subsidies in areas with shortcomings in infrastructure, or consider the introduction of social capital and market competition mechanisms such as government purchase of services to improve the utilization rate of funds; second, strengthen green security and strengthen support for interactive applications of vehicle networks; third, promote the upgrading of charging technology.
In terms of charging technology, Li Lili and his research team proposed that "two major technologies" may solve the problem of charging difficulties: vigorously promote electricity to fixed parking spaces, just like the promotion of optical fiber to households in those years, and vigorously promote the rapid charging technology of 3C and above for public charging. "Fast charging technology can solve the energy replenishment needs of various scenarios of vehicles, which is an important direction for the future of the new energy automobile industry, and the conditions are already available."
Ren Huanhuan suggested that charging solutions for different application scenarios can improve the feasibility of different charging solutions. For example, high-power charging is used in the public domain scene of high-speed roads or parking spaces, low-power charging is mainly used in the private field of residential areas, and power exchange is being piloted in the field of taxis, online ride-hailing and heavy-duty trucks, and wireless charging may first be promoted in the scene of high-end models.
Gong Huiming suggested from the perspective of the underlying logic design of charging infrastructure: "First-tier cities should take the lead in exploring the transformation of comprehensive electrification, infrastructure construction can not always be emergency, when it is really oriented to the transformation of comprehensive electrification, we must design infrastructure planning from the underlying logic, not only to consider the number of problems, but also to consider the rationality of real demand and spatial and temporal distribution." This point must be broken first in first-tier cities. ”
From the overall perspective of the future development of new energy vehicles, Gong Huiming also mentioned that it is necessary to enhance the real competitiveness of new energy vehicles through technology and scale, "whether it is to improve the acceleration, lower noise or higher level of intelligence, and finally make new energy vehicle products better than traditional fuel vehicles, which is the fundamental guarantee of comprehensive electrification." ”
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