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Food prices have soared 60% and 1.7 billion people have gone hungry! Who is the biggest winner behind the food crisis?
Did you cook today? Mr. Lu Xun once said that the joys and sorrows of human beings are not the same. Some people are happy to cook, and some people are hungry and want to wear it.
In May and June 2022, the World Food Programme issued a series of warnings that mankind is facing the biggest food crisis since World War II! More than 1.7 billion people are suffering from hunger! Not only the people of the Third World, but even the developed countries of Europe have become the protagonists of the food crisis? This is really "the landlord's family has no surplus grain."
First, was the food crisis the biggest after World War II, or was it simply false?
Why is it said that the food crisis is a loud cry from Europe and suffers from Asia, Africa and Latin America?
Why is it that even if a country has arable land and manpower, it cannot guarantee that it will not starve?
In this video, Dr. will work with you to decrypt "The Food Crisis Is Fake?!" 》
How lacking? India can't hold it?
Since 2020, starting from the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the world has been hit by a series of epidemics, locust plagues, volcanic eruptions, floods, and a series of hits.
In fact, regarding the lack of food, the United Nations began to warn in 2020! However, now that it is 2022, this crisis has not only not been lifted, but has deepened.
Plague, war, famine, death, this scene, as if immersed in the apocalyptic Four Horsemen blockbuster, who watched not to say a word quite tranditional...
In the face of this "crisis" that has been "widely publicized", a "food protectionism" has been set off around the world.
As of mid-May, nearly 30 countries had restricted trade in food, energy and other commodities. Including but not limited to Russia, Ukraine, India, Indonesia, Iran, Turkey, Argentina, Egypt, Kazakhstan, etc.
Russia's wheat exports are the first in the world, Ukraine's wheat exports are the third in the world, and as soon as the conflict between the two countries broke out, 30% of the world's wheat exports were affected.
Ukraine wants to sell it can't be sold, the Black Sea port is sealed, 20 million tons of grain cannot be transported, and it is so anxious that it almost borrows Poland; Russia, on the other hand, has taken the initiative to restrict grain exports and reduce food supplies to some countries. Ay! I look at who is pleasing to the eye, I will sell whom, and I will not sell who is not pleasing to the eye!
So, the EU, which clamors for the whole world to sanction big hair together, has become the unpleasant one. But people obviously have little self-awareness, and while saying that I will continue the sanctions of the "dish group", they say that you still have to sell me the "free" grain. I can't go hungry! Otherwise, who has the strength to punish you? Say the most provocative words in the most fierce tone, I am stupid! This belongs to the courage that Liang Jingru can't give!
And India, which is next door to us, is even more surprising this time.
On May 13, India announced the suspension of wheat exports, followed by the suspension of sugar and cotton, citing domestic food security.
India is the world's second largest wheat producer, although there are nearly 200 million people in the country who have been starving all year round, but have always insisted on exporting grain, at the beginning of this year Modi LaoXian also said to export 10 million tons of wheat, I myself surpassed myself. But the rhetoric just said that within a few days it reversed? Is this food crisis really so serious? Can even India, which has a big heart, be unable to hold on?
European and American countries also said that I did not understand, but I was greatly shocked. The Group of Seven (G7) immediately jointly condemned, we sanctioned Da Mao you do not follow, even if you do not sell grain. What about the emerging powers and hardcore allies? India said that the temperature in new Delhi is 50 degrees, rice and wheat see the decline in production, I am not happy to save some grain at home?
The laws of the market tell us that a decrease in supply will lead to an increase in prices. Indeed, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO), international wheat prices rose 59 percent in June, sunflower oil rose 30 percent, and corn prices rose 23 percent.
European countries have just "enjoyed" a wave of natural gas price increases, and then experienced food prices, even if they are old advanced capitalist countries, they are a bit unbearable.
British Prime Minister Johnson made a big move, calling on the Queen's people to "eat less and lose weight more".
This is still the case in developed countries, and some developing countries have directly entered the stage of "abundant martial virtue".
Iran because of the increase in food prices affected imports, the price of some staple foods soared by more than 300%, and even triggered riots; Sri Lanka has depreciated its currency by 80 percent since March, food prices have risen by about 57.4 percent, and authorities have been forced to issue "local shooting orders" to quell unrest caused by energy and food shortages.
The whole thing is, whether you eat bread, rice or flying cake, this time starvation is almost strafing. But you may not know that the "food crisis" will make people cry, but it can also make people laugh! Because the food crisis is a humanitarian disaster at the same time, it is also an opportunity for some people to make money and get rich!
The world is suffering ABCD for a long time?
Yes, they are the leaders of the global food trade! Let's raise our hands and type their names! A！ B！ C！ D！
That's ADM, Bunge, Cargill, Louis Dreyfus!
In the past 2021, due to the accelerated rise in global food prices, the performance of the four major international grain merchants has also risen.
Come on, on the data! In fiscal 2021, ADM achieved its best 120-year performance, with revenues of $85.2 billion, up 32 percent; The other three grain merchants have also increased their revenues and profits significantly, and as listed companies, their performance in the capital market is particularly eye-catching.
Behind the four major grain merchants making money, there is the truth of the global food crisis!
First, let's figure out the question, is there really a shortage of food in the world?
From 2018 to 2021, the total global grain production has risen year after year, at 2.65 billion tons, 2.71 billion tons and 2.78 billion tons, respectively.
Even in 2021/22, when natural disasters and conflicts erupt, global food production is still expected to reach 2.8 billion tons. Well, it didn't go down, it went up! According to the estimation of the total global population, on average, each person still has 710 pounds, about 2 pounds a day, how to see that it will not starve to death!
So the question is, since there is no shortage of total amounts, why is there a crisis? Why are prices soaring? Let's learn a term together – structural shortages! It can be understood that under the premise of sufficient total quantity, there is a relative and partial "shortage".
First of all, the food issue is a matter of life and death, and each country has its own food reserve system.
For example, we adopt a macro-control + market model, which can adjust prices by investing a large amount of grain reserves, while Europe and the United States are generally handed over to the market...
Then, ABCD, which is known as the "behind-the-scenes hand" of the international grain market, has appeared. These four multinational grain merchants control 80% of the world's grain trade, and can influence grain pricing by controlling the industrial chain of grain trade, from upstream raw materials and midstream processing to downstream supply.
In business, the market follows the rules of the high price, so you will see that European countries buy expensive grain, while Sri Lanka may not be able to buy at all...
After the adjustment of this "behind-the-scenes hand", the grain is still those grains, but the price is rising, and ABCD can use the rules to make a fierce "ball is difficult to get rich".
Of course, if these foods are really put into the jobs of the poor, it is acceptable from a humanitarian point of view. But this is not the case, and more and more food is being used in the production of biofuels.
In April 2022, U.S. President Joe Biden made an emergency announcement to expand biofuel sales to curb soaring gasoline prices. The translation is to say that the price of oil is too expensive, let's engage in ethanol.
The United States, the world's largest producer of ethanol, consumed 170 million tonnes of food in 2021/22 to produce biofuels, accounting for 47.4% of total food consumption.
You may say that the people of Asia, Africa and Latin America are eating soil, and the lighthouse is still making biofuels from grain for profit? Is the world too uneven?
Who says it's not? But you can't say that people use grain to engage in scientific research and reduce production costs! After all, people have mines in their homes and grain in their houses. You can only say that in ancient times, there were "Zhumen wine meat smelly road with frozen bones", and now there are "market prices, strength determines everything".
As long as the lighthouse does not burn grain and refine "oil" in a 3:1 ratio while condemning us for hoarding grain, there is no need to evaluate too much! After all, we didn't eat his rice either.
Grain in hand Voice do I have?
What petroleum fuels are too carbon-emitting, what biofuels are more environmentally friendly, in fact?
The mouth is full of doctrine, and the heart is all business.
And behind the business? Naked power again!
The history of mankind is a history of survival, and eating is an eternal topic.
Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger once said, "If you control oil, you control all countries; If you control the food, you control all of humanity."
Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger
I understand this sentence and I am still shocked!
So who controls the food? It's better to look at the ABCD attribution, except for the Louis Daf prefix France, the other three are all in the United States.
But this time, what makes the lighthouse invincible is not the aircraft carrier missile, not the story of the dish group, but the real high efficiency!
First of all, it is a unique natural condition. The lighthouse is the only country in the world with an area of more than 1 million square kilometers of arable land, and the central Great Plains occupy 20% of the land area. Especially suitable for the kind of flat that the harvester drives past.
Secondly, there is super-developed oil agriculture. Unlike the traditional ancient method of artificial labor that is still widely adopted in India, lighthouse agriculture is typical of fully mechanized large farm operations. Proper technology is the first productive force!
Finally, there are the super high agricultural subsidies. Lighthouse's subsidies for agriculture originated in the Great Depression of the 1930s.
In 2020, net income from U.S. agriculture reached $119.6 billion, and in the same year, the Biden administration's agricultural subsidies hit a record high of $46.5 billion. Rough estimates show that 40 percent of a farmer's net income comes from direct subsidies from the authorities.
This has made the lighthouse super competitive in the international food market. For example, in the first quarter of this year, Lighthouse was our largest source of soybean imports, and its average price per ton of soybeans was the lowest among several soybean exporters in Russia, Ukraine and Canada, and more significantly lower than that of domestic soybeans.
It is not that our farmers do not work hard, but that the price advantage brought about by the efficient industrialization of lighthouse soybeans means the right to speak in the international agricultural market.
Average price of soybeans: 3837 yuan / ton in the United States; Canada: 4223 yuan / ton;
Average price of non-GMO soybeans: 3781 yuan / ton in the United States; Russia 3783 yuan / ton; Canada 4714 yuan / ton; Ukraine 4865 yuan / ton
On May 13, the price of domestic soybean futures was about 6,000 yuan / ton.
As we all know, oil is the foundation of the dollar's hegemony, in fact, the dollar has another value footnote, that is, food. Grain is a star commodity in the international futures market, and the lighthouse, as the largest grain exporter, has enough chips in the futures market to influence international grain prices and achieve arbitrage, after all, playing financial people is professional.
In international trade, the lighthouse is also full of routines, such as the use of low-priced agricultural products to occupy emerging markets, directly crushing local industries, even if there is more arable land, it is doomed to be knocked down by one move; Or affect the economies of other countries through procurement trade, such as Through the fruit trade of the United Fruit Company. Brazil has also historically been influenced by the coffee trade.
After all, no matter how high the martial arts, they must also eat, and no matter how good their brains are, they must also eat. Therefore, the most basic and core security of all this security is the safety of the rice bowl.
However, at present, it does not matter whether it is the European food crisis or the "right to speak" of the lighthouse's food, the impact on us is not too big.
First of all, regardless of whether other people's production is reduced or not, our grain output has been stable at more than 1.3 trillion catties for 7 consecutive years. Don't worry about not having to eat, get stuck in the neck.
Secondly, whether you like rice or noodles, 95% of the grains you usually eat (rice, wheat) are domestically produced. The grain we import is mainly soybeans and corn, mainly for feed.
So no matter how you rise internationally, you can't say that there is no impact at home, but it will not be impossible to hold.
However, it is clear that our pursuit is not only food security, in international trade, futures markets, in the field where agriculture can gain more influence, one day we can also open up different worlds...
Well, this issue ends here, we'll see you next!
Resources:
1. To solve the Crisis in Sri Lanka, India's characters are heavily burdened by Zhang Xiaoyu
2. Sanctions against Russia have been "reversed", the British people are starving and freezing, Johnson: eat less and lose weight Jiang Ping
3. European wheat prices hit new highs, usa: india please think twice Liu Chenghui
4. A crisis looming? The global food market has once again "sounded the alarm"! China Fund News
5. Blockaded Black Sea ports by Russia, "European granary" Ukraine export grain is difficult! Biden's tricks... Li Zedong
6. How much does India, the world's second-largest sugar exporter, restrict sugar exports affect China? Observer Network
7. The United States, Brazil, the European Union 300 million tons of grain into fuel, the global cereal price index hit a record high CCTV Finance Fan Hongwei
8. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations: Global food prices climbed in May and have risen to their highest level in nearly a decade Yang Chong
9. White Paper: The Mainland's Grain Reserve Capacity Has Been Significantly Enhanced Hu Lu
10. In May, the national economic operation showed a recovery momentum of the National Bureau of Statistics
11. Grain import and export data for the first quarter of 2022 General Administration of Customs
12. In 2021, the mainland's grain import volume will reach 165 million tons, a record high for the General Administration of Customs