"Frank, professional and constructive", please note that the wording of this press release is the highest evaluation given by the U.S.-China dialogue in recent years.
So why did the stock market crash?
In fact, this is similar to the fact that everyone knows that "you" owe a bunch of debts outside, but they all know that you have a good face, and every time they "care" about you, they ask "Do you need to help?" "I was scolded back by you.
So, no one knows how much you really owe.......
Until you really can't bear it, "confess" to everyone, both sides breathe a long sigh of relief, and at the same time frown ...
While scolding in his heart, "This is a real loser, a real Huo Huo!" ”
On the one hand, you have to pretend to be generous and relaxed: "In the big debt, dig and dig and dig, see what can be done, leave a little money to spend!" ”
This is the current situation, and after a very frank (debt disclosure), professional (proposal), constructive (negotiable) exchanges, the two sides reached a basic consensus:
The debt ceiling of the two sides is negotiated!
Therefore, everyone does not have to hold on, and when they "pretend" there, the thunder that should have exploded a long time ago can explode one after another.
The specific steps are something like this:
Step1: The stock markets of both sides took the lead in reacting to the plunge, until the thunder on both sides burst out, and the whole process was full of corpses.......
Step2: Then the Fed will announce a phased victory in the fight against inflation and cut interest rates!
Step3: Our central bank followed up with the release of water and cooperated with the package of policies to raise the banner of "epic bailout".
And then everyone rejoices.
SO, WE SAW THAT A SHARE FELL AGAIN UNSURPRISINGLY, AND THE UNITED STATES ARE QUITE INTERESTING, AND NEW YORK CITY FROZE THE DEPOSITS OF CAPITAL ONE AND KEYBANK (TWO REGIONAL BANKS) FOR THE FIRST TIME.
But one thing needs to be clarified, our side "squatted" in advance, obviously fully prepared, so that the subsequent position holding experience will not be so "cruel".
Of course, the United States is not a fuel-saving lamp, you can't see it, foreign capital continues to sell without returning.
Things have come to this point, emotions have come to this point, in fact, the "result" can already be seen in the story behind.
The whole process may have waves, but the process is likely to be the same.
Of course, the progress of the whole process depends on the progress of the negotiations.
Referring to 2008, the negotiation process took about a month.
In other words, the countdown to the "epic bailout" has begun?
Don't fall into the darkness before dawn!
But note that this morning's market is similar to our consistent judgment over the past few days:
The power grid continued to rise, and vocational education in related AI application landing scenarios maintained an upward trend.
But now things have changed!
Follow-up observations.
In addition, there is also a very interesting news this morning: "Some second-hand houses in Beijing have reduced their prices by 900,000 yuan and cannot be sold!" ”
This kind of news can be exposed, and it can also be on the hot search, which can only show two problems:
1. Everyone is very diligent about finding reasons.
2. The residential side is shrinking the balance sheet from passive to active, and the related assets with the house as the "anchor" are rapidly forming a downward negative spiral.
After all, this thing could have been broadcast before? Can it be taken out for discussion?
This also shows that everyone is beginning to really calm down, begin to weigh the pros and cons, and calculate the gains and losses.
On the one hand, even if the hot and high-paying jobs in the past are not as stable as they imagined, let alone the sudden arrival of unemployment.
On the other hand, thinking of his loan balance that had been left for more than ten or twenty years, he instantly felt cold behind his back.
If you remember that the supply of houses has long exceeded demand, there is also the high hanging "property tax" .....
Everyone calculated clearly: if you sell 30%, you may lose everything if you don't sell ...
Therefore, unreasonably, almost the country's second-hand housing strong bearish expectations arise, and there is no turning back at all.
With the surge in listings in the second-hand housing market, the best window for property to escape the top has gradually closed... Add to that the current crazy outflow of foreign capital ...
Now, in the capital market, is arbitrage a good time?
I still take real estate as an example, during this period of time in the market popular practice, Shanghai Hangzhou and other places, buying new houses and throwing second-hand houses, seems to be arbitrage.
Actually two unilateral.
The short ones can't sell, and the long ones look at the inflated price, thinking that there is a spread, but the cash out will come to the forward contract.
And what price in the future, no one knows.
So what do we do now?
The stock index market maintains dynamic positions, chasing up and down to lock in profits, and then hang some short orders for hedging, and finally, make a pot of tea, and then sit by the window, waiting for him to thunder, watch the rainstorm.
Please like and follow "Huxi Business Review"