Plaza Accord (I), Japan collapsed, who is the winner?

Beijing Zhang Ge, 20 years of real estate industry, familiar with the industry, I do not be a so-called "expert", only use 20 years of practical experience to help everyone answer questions.

Japan collapsed, who is the winner? Most people would say the United States, after all, they are the ones who want the yen to appreciate the most.

Actually, no, because manipulating the exchange rate is only a means and a process, and it can be said that the goal has been achieved. But the real purpose of the United States is to make Japanese goods more expensive because of currency appreciation, thereby reducing exports. After the relative depreciation of the dollar, goods become cheaper, and exports can be expanded, and then manufacturing can return and rise again.

But this goal was not achieved, that is, the exchange rate change did not benefit the US manufacturing industry, and the Plaza Accord was a toss-up. Why?

The first is that the purposes of the two sides are different. The United States is trying to suppress Japanese exports, and Japan is not willing to do so. Therefore, Japan just wants to mean in terms of currency, and the foreign exchange exported should be earned and earned. So it can be said that they understand the idea of the United States, but do not really cooperate.

As a result, Japan ostensibly allowed the yen to appreciate, but secretly prepared for it. This is why Japan has taken the initiative to appreciate. You read that right, the Plaza Accord was initiated by Japan, not the United States. Because Japan understands very well that trade is suitable for both sides, especially to do business with the United States, can not always take advantage, really provoke the big guy is not appropriate, after all, there are tens of thousands of garrisons on the island.

The first means is to buy on a large scale. Because Japan is an island country with extremely poor resources, almost all raw materials have to be imported. Then it is relatively cheap to go to other countries to purchase raw materials after the yen appreciates. In other words, although appreciation will lead to an increase in the price of the end product, it can also be hedged by falling raw material prices.

The second means is throttling, that is, reducing costs. You must know that Japan's national nature has a ruthless drive to the extreme, so after appreciation, it desperately compresses costs, and achieves internal management to a perverted and refined degree, further hedging the pressure of appreciation. This can fully explain in one sentence, "wring the towel again", all the costs consumed in the process of squeezing dry.

The third means is open source, that is, transferring production capacity to low-cost countries, which hedges the consequences of appreciation. At first, they chose to focus mainly on Southeast Asia, because everyone is the younger brother of the United States, so as not to cause the disgust of the big brother, and can also use cheap wages to reduce costs again.

As a result of these three actions, the prices of Japanese goods did not rise much because of the appreciation of the yen, and they did not give up much market share. Therefore, Japan did not lose, but increased the competitiveness of its products. Since Japan did not lose, the United States did not win, and it did not achieve the goal of the return and re-emergence of manufacturing. Until now, it has not been realized, otherwise Te* Pu and Bai would not be so anxious, but now the main opponent is China.

So did China profit from the Plaza Accord? At first, there were not many because Japan's preferred target was Southeast Asian countries, and only a small part was given to China. In addition, China was still debating the issue of "surname capital surname society" at that time, and the attitude towards whether to use foreign capital was not uniform, so it was not introduced in large quantities.

Of course, even if it was introduced in large quantities at that time, it would not make much sense. Because Japan transferred the lowest production capacity in the early days, it did not help China's industrialization development very much.

But then, under the pressure of the yen's runaway pressure, China got a significant benefit. At this time, the transfer out are relatively high-end production lines, including mold manufacturing and the like. And at that time, China had already unified its thinking, regardless of black cats and white cats, grabbing rats is a good cat, and vigorously introducing foreign capital.

At that time, although the ASEAN countries also wanted to bring in, their workers could not, not only did they have a high illiteracy rate, but they did not have the habit of collectivizing production. As a result, Japan gave high-end production lines and could not find qualified workers, and it was particularly difficult to manage, which was really a headache.

Although China was very poor at that time, the vast majority of people were literate and could master production technology in a short time. Especially after the launch of Windws, the control requirements of the production line have decreased, and the advantages of China's high-quality labor force are even more obvious.

In addition, the main thing is that China was not a scattered sand at that time, but whether urban or rural, the concept and habit of collectivization had long been cultivated and banned, resulting in production benefits far exceeding those of other countries. So China has made a lot of profits in the transfer of production capacity after Japan, and it is an absolute winner.

Of course, there is another winner, and that is South Korea. Originally, I didn't deal with Japan, and after seeing that I was bullied by the boss, the United States, I had to take the opportunity to get oil. So South Korea lobbied the United States, lowered export tariffs on semiconductors, and stole most of Japan's share, and the Japanese could only watch as they did nothing.

However, South Korea and Southeast Asian countries suffered losses in 1997, feeding dogs with wolves and basically letting the United States lose the money earned from Japan. Of course, there are Western European chaebols, Britain, France, Germany, etc. are all in one series.

Who is the real winner of the consequences of the Plaza Agreement (including later agreements such as the Louvre)? The United States can be said to have neither lost nor won, although it has not achieved the return of manufacturing, but it has made money from the Asian financial storm, and let other younger brothers see their own prestige.

Japan is not a complete loser, because if they do not appreciate, it may mean how fiercely it will be hit by the United States, perhaps worse. The subsequent housing market crash is actually another story, which will be told later.

Among the other three countries of the Plaza Agreement, Britain and France followed the platform to coax, which was considered a little cheap. Germany was not the main target, and it did not deal with the United States, so the impact was not large, and later it took advantage of the reunification of the two Germanys, so it was considered a winner.

Southeast Asian countries won first and then lost, and have not fully recovered to this day. South Korea also won first and then lost, but then recovered, so it also wins.

Of course, the most won can be said to be China, this is based on the national fortune, the second is the tenacity of the Chinese, and the third is the leadership has made several correct decisions, the result of the comprehensive ...

The era of buying a house at will can make a fortune has passed, only by choosing the right house and avoiding the pit can you enjoy the asset appreciation dividend!