First-tier cities refer to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other cities with developed economies, dense populations and great social influence. These cities have attracted countless talents, capital, information and innovation, and have become the economic engine and cultural center of the country.
However, with the acceleration of urbanization and social changes, first-tier cities are also facing many challenges and problems, such as high housing prices, congestion, pollution, aging population, and resource constraints. These problems not only affect the sustainable development of first-tier cities, but also affect people's quality of life and happiness.
Therefore, some people predict that in less than 10 years, first-tier cities will no longer be "popular", but will be replaced by new first-tier cities and characteristic second-tier cities. So, is there any basis for this prediction?
Excessive competitive pressure in first-tier cities has led to brain drain and reduced innovation capabilities
Although first-tier cities have superior resources and opportunities, they also mean fiercer competition and higher thresholds. In first-tier cities, we must not only face the competition of outstanding talents from all over the country, but also face the competition from the international market.
For residents of first-tier cities, this undoubtedly increases the pressure of work and life, and also reduces their satisfaction and loyalty. According to the "2020 China Urban Living Stress Index Report" jointly released by 58.com and Anjuke, the living stress index of first-tier cities is higher than the national average, among which Beijing has the highest living stress index of 2.46, far exceeding the national average of 1.87.
The living stress index is calculated comprehensively based on six dimensions, including housing prices, income, employment, education, medical care, and transportation, reflecting the degree of living stress of urban residents. The higher the living stress index, the greater the living pressure of urban residents. Excessive pressure in life will lead to the loss of talent in first-tier cities, especially mid-to-high-end talents and young talents.
According to the "2020 Chinese Talent Mobility Trend Report" released by Zhaopin, the net outflow rate of talents in first-tier cities is negative, with Beijing having the highest net outflow rate of -9.4%, which means that for every 100 talents, 9.4 talents have left Beijing.
The main reason for the outflow of talent is that the high housing prices, high consumption, high pressure, and high competition in first-tier cities make talents feel unbearable and difficult to integrate. Brain drain will affect the innovation ability and competitiveness of first-tier cities, as well as the demographic structure and social stability of first-tier cities.
The development potential and attractiveness of new first-tier cities and characteristic second-tier cities are constantly increasing, forming a challenge and alternative to first-tier cities
The new first-tier cities refer to 15 cities, including Chengdu, Chongqing, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Xi'an, Suzhou, Tianjin, Nanjing, Changsha, Zhengzhou, Dongguan, Qingdao, Shenyang, Ningbo and Kunming, which have performance comparable to those of first-tier cities in terms of economic scale, population scale, urban vitality, commercial resources and lifestyle.
Characteristic second-tier cities refer to cities with unique natural scenery, cultural heritage, industrial characteristics and development advantages, such as Xiamen, Nanning, Hefei, Jinan, Harbin, Taiyuan, Lanzhou, Guiyang, etc. These cities can not only provide talents with space for career development, but also provide a high quality of life and happiness.
According to the "2020 China Urban Living Stress Index Report" jointly released by 58.com and Anjuke, the living stress index of new first-tier cities and characteristic second-tier cities is lower than the national average, among which Xiamen has the lowest living stress index of only 1.32, far lower than the national average of 1.87.
The lower the living stress index, the less stressed the living pressure of urban residents. Life is less stressful, which will attract more talent inflow, especially mid-to-high-end talents and young talents. According to the "2020 Chinese Talent Mobility Trend Report" released by Zhaopin, the net inflow rate of talents in new first-tier cities and characteristic second-tier cities is positive, among which Chengdu has the highest net inflow rate of 7.1%, which means that 7.1 out of every 100 talents have flowed into Chengdu.
The main reason for the inflow of talent is that the housing prices, consumption, pressure, and competition in the new first-tier cities and characteristic second-tier cities are more reasonable and comfortable than those in the first-tier cities, making talents feel more affordable and integrated. The inflow of talent will promote the innovation ability and competitiveness of new first-tier cities and characteristic second-tier cities, and will also increase the population size and social vitality of new first-tier cities and characteristic second-tier cities.
The policy guidance and support of the national and local governments are conducive to the development and growth of new first-tier cities and characteristic second-tier cities, forming a supplement and balance to first-tier cities.
The national and local governments, in order to achieve coordinated regional development and improve the quality of urbanization, have formulated a series of policies and measures to encourage and support the development of new first-tier cities and characteristic second-tier cities. For example, the state has issued documents such as "Several Opinions on Supporting the Deepening of Reform and Opening-up in the Western Region", "Several Opinions on Supporting the Rise of the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River", and "Several Opinions on Supporting the Revitalization of Old Industrial Bases in the Northeast Region", which have provided policy dividends and resource support for the development of new first-tier cities and characteristic second-tier cities such as the western region, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and the northeast region. Local governments have also formulated a series of policies and measures to attract and retain talents, promote industrial transformation and upgrading, and improve the quality and image of cities according to their own advantages and characteristics.
These reasons are very realistic and convincing. Of course, this does not mean that first-tier cities have no future, nor does it mean that new first-tier cities and characteristic second-tier cities will not have problems. First-tier cities still have irreplaceable advantages and status, and there is still room and opportunities for reform and innovation. New first-tier cities and characteristic second-tier cities are also facing the problem of unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable development, and they also need to continuously improve their functions and quality.