21st Century Business Herald reporter Peng Shuo reported from Beijing
A few days ago, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing, which comprehensively summarized the economic work in 2023, deeply analyzed the current economic situation, and systematically deployed the economic work in 2024.
Among them, "continuing to further promote the construction of ecological civilization and green and low-carbon development" is listed as one of the nine important tasks. The meeting proposed to "actively and steadily promote carbon peak and carbon neutrality, accelerate the construction of a green and low-carbon supply chain", "accelerate the construction of a new energy system", "improve the ability to ensure the security of energy resources" and other goals. The above-mentioned top-level design is also one of the key directions of the layout of the domestic industrial field.
This article is the green economy chapter of "Exploring the Growth of A-shares". The green economy focuses on the direction of green power energy, including wind power, photovoltaics, new power system energy storage, and hydrogen energy. In the field of green and low-carbon, the mainland has formed the world's largest industrial chain, and has given birth to a group of listed companies in line with the concept of low-carbon and sustainable development.
At present, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has 274 listed companies in the field of green economy, and has a number of leading enterprises with a market value of more than 30 billion yuan.
In 2023, these companies have seized the opportunities of green economic development, accelerated the R&D of cutting-edge technologies and the layout of production capacity, deeply cultivated the domestic and foreign markets, and made outstanding contributions to China's green industry leading the world.
At the end of the year, under the background of the gradual implementation of national macroeconomic policies, the above-mentioned Shenzhen-listed companies are also actively deploying around the industry situation next year. Through the actions of these companies, new trends in China's green economy are looming in front of us.
High performance
At present, China is unique in the world in the green economy, and it is also the world's largest market for new energy installations.
In 2023, in the field of photovoltaic and wind power, mainland China will once again become one of the largest and fastest-growing markets in the global market.
According to data from the National Energy Administration, from January to November 2023, 163.88GW of new photovoltaic capacity was added, an increase of 149.40% year-on-year. In November, 21.32GW of new PV capacity was added in a single month, an increase of 185.41% year-on-year and 56.53% month-on-month.
In the field of wind power, from January to November, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power was 41.39GW, an increase of 83.79% year-on-year, and the cumulative utilization hours were 2,029 hours, an increase of 21 hours year-on-year. Among them, 4.08GW of new installed capacity was added in November, an increase of 195.65% year-on-year. Industry insiders expect the annual installed capacity to exceed 60GW, and the hoisting scale is close to or exceed 70GW.
After decades of development, the mainland has also incubated a large number of globally competitive listed wind power and photovoltaic companies, which have generally maintained stable growth.
For example, in the photovoltaic field, there are 43 listed photovoltaic companies on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. As of the close of trading on December 22, there is one company with a market value of 100 billion yuan: Sungrow. There are 4 companies with a market value of 50 billion to 100 billion yuan, namely: JA Technology, TCL Zhonghuan, Dongfang Shenghong, and Jingsheng Electromechanical.
The above-mentioned enterprises are involved in the production and manufacturing of the main links of photovoltaic production. Among them, Sunshine Energy is mainly engaged in the inverter link, JA Solar Technology is an integrated giant, TCL Zhonghuan is a silicon wafer giant, and this year it is also developing in the direction of integration, and Jingsheng Electromechanical is the largest photovoltaic silicon wafer equipment enterprise in China.
Thanks to the release of production capacity and the blowout of downstream demand, these companies have generally maintained rapid development since the beginning of this year.
Wind data shows that in the first three quarters of this year, these 43 listed companies achieved revenue of 473.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.33%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 44.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.3%.
In addition to the traditional photovoltaic and wind power tracks, the energy storage industry also began to rise at the beginning of this year and began to become another major growth pillar in the field of green economy.
"As of the end of the third quarter of this year, China's cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage reached 25.3 GW/53.4 GWh, a year-on-year increase of more than 260%, and the newly installed capacity was 12.3 GW/25.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of more than 920%. It is expected that 49.6 GWh of new capacity will be installed by the end of this year, about three times that of last year. Shi Yubo, chairman of the China Energy Research Society, said.
On the industrial side, a large number of A-share energy storage industry chain enterprises are ushering in rapid development.
There are 34 energy storage-related companies on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, including giant enterprises led by CATL and BYD. In the first three quarters of this year, the above 34 energy storage companies achieved a total revenue of 996.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.1%, and a net profit of 78.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.1%.
"Cost reduction" has become a common theme
In the field of green economy, "reducing costs and increasing efficiency" is the eternal theme. As the energy revolution sweeps the world, who can make more people use low-cost clean energy will be more competitive in the market.
Since the beginning of this year, Chinese companies have seen significant cost reductions in the three major tracks of photovoltaic, wind power and energy storage.
In the PV track, with the continuous release of upstream polysilicon production capacity, downstream module prices have ushered in a downward trend.
Flush data shows that since December last year, the price of polysilicon (dense material) has increased from around 240 yuan/kg. By December 20 this year, the price had reached 65 yuan/kg, a drop of 72.9%, and in the downstream module field, the average winning bid price of PV modules fell from around 1.84 yuan/W to around 1 yuan/W, a decrease of 45.7%.
According to publicly available data from the industry, the IRR (internal rate of return) will increase by one percentage point for every dicent drop in module costs under the condition that the electricity price remains unchanged. This means that by the end of this year, the internal rate of return on investment in power plants will increase by 8% compared with the beginning of the year.
Although cost reduction is conducive to the development of the global energy range, in the short term, for upstream manufacturing enterprises, cost reduction also means increased competitive pressure, which puts forward higher requirements for enterprise management, operation, capacity delivery, and technology research and development.
For example, on November 24, investors asked how the company would survive under the price war, and JA Solar said on the interactive platform that the current competition in the photovoltaic market is fierce, and module prices continue to fall, and the company has achieved cost reduction and efficiency improvement by strengthening supply chain management, continuous R&D investment, and process improvement. At present, the company's capacity utilization rate remains at a high level.
In response to the trend of cost reduction, more and more photovoltaic companies have begun to move towards integration, in order to reduce costs by controlling all links.
For example, TCL Zhonghuan, which originally adhered to a professional layout in the field of silicon wafers, has entered the production and manufacturing of the entire industrial chain from silicon wafer track to silicon materials, silicon wafers to cells and modules this year. For another example, JA Solar's integration rate has been maintained at about 80% since 2016, and the integration rate has increased to more than 90% this year.
In the field of wind power and energy storage, since the beginning of this year, the trend of "cost reduction" has become more obvious.
For example, in the lithium battery energy storage cell, the lowest bid price is still above 0.9 yuan/Wh, after the outbreak of installed capacity this year, the lowest bid price of lithium battery energy storage cell in November is only about 0.4 yuan/Wh, a decline of more than 55%.
In order to cope with the trend of rapid cost reduction, large-scale cost reduction through the construction of larger production capacity, as well as industrialization extension to other links have become necessary means.
EVE (300014. SZ) is the third largest energy storage cell manufacturer in China, and InfoLink data shows that from January to June 2023, the company's energy storage battery shipments were 8.98GWh, a year-on-year increase of 102.3%, ranking third in the world in terms of energy storage cell shipments. This year, EVE announced its entry into the field of system integration. In 2025, the production capacity target of lithium battery energy storage is set at 100GWh.
The financial report shows that under the price war, EVE still maintains a good growth momentum. In the first three quarters of this year, EVE achieved operating income of 35.529 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.31%, and a net profit of 3.424 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.47%. During the same period, EVE's gross profit margin was 18.34%, an increase of 0.76% over 2022, and its net profit margin was 10.75%, an increase of 2.32% over 2022.
The emergence of new technologies is accelerating
For the fast-rising green industry, the ability to develop and implement new technologies is the key to the long-term survival of enterprises.
In 2023, many emerging technologies will also emerge in photovoltaic, wind power, and industrial tracks, some of which are expected to become the key directions of the future industry.
In the field of photovoltaics, perovskite technology is one example. After more than ten years of development, the dawn of commercialization can already be seen in China.
Including GCL Optoelectronics, Jidian Solar, and Sodium Fiber Optoelectronics, many domestic companies have announced that they have square meter perovskite mineral production lines, and the efficiency of square meter modules in the industry has exceeded 18%. In addition to the above-mentioned companies, industry giants represented by JA Solar also announced that they have been deeply engaged in this field.
In addition to the PV industry, the replacement of P-type modules by N-type modules is another major direction of industry evolution as traditional P-type PERC modules are approaching the theoretical conversion efficiency limit.
N-type module technology includes three major technical routes: TOPcon, BC, and HJT, and each of the three major technical routes is currently focused on by enterprises. Among them, the TOPcon link has the largest planned production capacity, and the market share is more leading than the latter two.
In the process of transformation from P-type to N-type, the N-type TOPcon products of Junda Co., Ltd. (002865.SZ) took the lead in mass production and took the lead in enjoying the N-type technology dividend.
Due to the higher conversion efficiency, the premium of N-type modules in the current domestic bidding market is about RMB 0.06-0.10/W, while the premium in the domestic bidding market is above RMB 0.10/W.
According to InfoLink data, in the first half of the year, Junda's N-type TOPCon cells shipped 6.56GW, ranking first in the industry. With the expected commissioning of the Huai'an Phase II 13GWN TOPCon project, Junda's TOPCon production capacity will exceed 44GW by the end of this year.
On October 31, Junda shares (002865. SZ) disclosed that in the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved operating income of 14.380 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 93.59%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.638 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 299.21%.
In the new energy storage track, the iteration of new technologies is endless.
In 2020, CATL first launched 280Ah large cells, and at present, cells above 300Ah have become the mainstream. In addition to the lithium battery energy storage route, other energy storage technology routes, such as solar thermal power generation, molten salt energy storage and liquid flow routes, are also gradually emerging.
Among them, the liquid flow route has ushered in an explosion of bidding volume this year. According to the reporter's statistics, from this year to early November alone, the large-scale bidding volume of flow batteries (including public bidding and private contracting) has exceeded 5GWh, more than twice the sum of last year. At present, among the listed companies in Shenzhen, Xizi Energy Conservation (002534. SZ) and other enterprises are in related enterprises, and they are laying out routes such as liquid flow routes and molten salt energy storage.
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