The reduction of deposit interest rates has warmed the bond market, and the fund has risen significantly, and the market is expected to get out of the New Year's Eve market

Every reporter: Ren Fei Every editor: Ye Feng

Last week, the listed interest rates of fixed deposits of major state-owned banks were generally lowered, which further triggered interest rate cuts, and the interest rates on the long-end of bonds rose first and then fell, and short-term bonds faced certain pressure. Bond funds have also risen significantly, and the head products of medium and long-term pure bond funds have risen by more than 1%, and some analysts have pointed out that the market is expected to get out of the New Year's Eve market, and appropriate layout of interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds can be considered to lay a good foundation for investment in the coming year.

The bond market is blowing a warm wind, and the fund has risen significantly

Last Friday (12.22), the listed interest rates of fixed deposits of large state-owned banks were generally lowered. Among them, the listed interest rates of 3-month, 6-month and 1-year time deposits were lowered by 10BP, and the listed interest rates of 2-year, 3-year and 5-year time deposits were reduced by 20BP, 25BP and 25BP.

Specifically, Wind statistics show that as of December 22, the yields of 10-year treasury bonds and 10-year CDB bonds closed at 2.5877% and 2.7221% respectively, down 3.50BP and 0.64BP from the previous weekend. Credit bonds fluctuated weakly, and the yields of credit bonds of various maturities mostly rose slightly.

With the heating up of the bond market, the fund has risen significantly, especially among the medium and long-term pure bond funds, the head products generally rose by more than 0.5% in the week, Tianhong Zhaoxiang rose 1.5293% in three months, and China Merchants Zhaowang pure bond C rose 1.0511%. Although the increase in short-term bond funds was limited, this is related to the pressure on short-term bond yields after the adjustment of deposit rates.

Judging from the impact of the deposit rate cut, some institutions believe that it will open up space for the LPR reduction in early 2024, and the research report analysis of Guohai Securities pointed out that from a macroeconomic point of view, the recent marginal weakening of some macroeconomic data has indeed increased the necessity of LPR interest rate cuts.

Note: The performance of the top products of various types of bond bases last week and the year as of 12.24 Source: Wind statistics

The strength of the bond market may be brought forward to the end of the year

Towards the end of the year, with the readjustment of financial policy, the market's expectation of further easing of liquidity is also increasing, which provides logical support for the bond market to continue to strengthen at the end of the year. Some analysts pointed out that the strength of the bond market may be brought forward to the end of the year.

Guosheng Securities believes that due to the gradual release of accumulated financial deposits, the funding gap has improved and liquidity has been replenished. With the rise of long sentiment in the bond market, institutions began to rush to match, and the market may trend stronger in advance. In fact, from the perspective of the allocation of institutional funds, the bond base has been the product with the largest incremental contribution this year, and in the context of monetary policy to maintain easing, the willingness of institutions to issue related bond bases is still high.

Of course, there was a period of decline in the bond market before, but the short-term disturbance did not change the long-term "line-drawing" trend of the bond market, and finally smoothed out the fluctuation of net value and realized the long-term rise of the index. Wind statistics show that the index yield of the short-term pure bond fund index has reached 3.06% this year, which is a significant increase from about 2% in the whole of last year.

The analysis of Nuoan Fund pointed out that for the bond market, the current fundamentals continue to be weak, the policy tone remains stable, interest rate cuts next year may still be expected, and the medium and long-term trend of the risk-free interest rate pivot is relatively certain. At present, on the premise that the cross-year liquidity is safe, we can consider the appropriate allocation of interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds to lay a good foundation for investment in the coming year.

It should be pointed out that banks will also face a liquidity index assessment next week, which may trigger volatility in the bond market. Ping An Securities analysis pointed out that interest rate cuts are good for both the long and short ends, and the short-end market last week has also been fully interpreted; and the end of next week is approaching, banks are facing the assessment pressure of liquidity indicators, and the first interest rate cut by large banks may bring about structural adjustments to deposits, and there may be certain seasonal disturbances in funds across the year. The uncertainty of the capital side is expected to ease after the New Year's Eve, and the relative value of short-duration varieties can be paid attention to depending on the fund price.

National Business Daily