Yesterday something big happened;
According to a Reuters report on January 1, U.S. energy giant ExxonMobil has officially withdrawn from the West Gurna-1 oil field in southern Iraq, and PetroChina has begun to take over the field and become the de facto operator of this mega oil field.
This news quickly detonated the media circle, why the US energy giant pulled out of Iraq, and what are the unknown mysteries behind this. In the face of an extremely complex international landscape, what should the PLA do?
One: The United States withdrew?
The West Gulna-1 oil field is located in the southern region of Iraq, near Kuwait in the south, and the crude oil produced from the field is mainly supplied to Asia and Europe.
Crude oil supplied to Europe is transported by sea and loaded out of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz by ship, all the way east into Asia.
The West Gurna-1 oilfield is one of the world's largest oil fields, with a daily crude oil production capacity of about 550,000 tons and an estimated production reserve of more than 20 billion barrels.
Previously, the West Gurna-1 oilfield project was all contracted to the American energy giant ExxonMobil, which occupies more than 30% of the oilfield shares and is the largest shareholder of the oilfield project.
Iraqi oil companies also occupy a certain share, which is a classic of US-Iranian "energy cooperation", after the United States withdrew from the project, Chinese companies became major shareholders and became the actual operators of the project, of course, behind the sale of real money.
Such a fragrant bait, how the Americans say give up, they will give up.
2. Why U.S. energy giants are withdrawing from projects
If we look closely at the map, we will see that the Sigurna-1 oil field is actually not safe and could be controlled and militarily attacked by Middle Eastern countries and armed forces at any time.
Even in the face of such a big commercial temptation, the United States has to consider the security of assets, the Kurdish forces in northern Iraq are a major concern for the United States, threatening American overseas interests from time to time, and there have been a number of attacks on American companies and citizens, which is a headache for Americans.
Iran, as the most powerful land power in the Middle East, is a supporter behind Islamist forces such as Allah, and the situation in the Middle East is becoming increasingly tense, and Iran has actually clashed with the US military many times.
The Iranian army sent drones and other equipment to "escort" the US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier battle group out of the Strait of Hormuz, which made the Americans very unhappy.
Why is it that even the aircraft carrier battle group can not protect its own security now, not to mention the huge overseas energy projects, today's US army is no longer the US military of the Iraqi period, and the Iranian army is no longer the backward armed force.
The Iranian army's blockade of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz at any time, the death of the senior commander of the Iranian army by the Israeli army, and Iran's vow to take revenge have increased tensions in the Middle East, and direct armed conflict with the US and Israeli forces may occur at any time.
The Americans believe that Iran may intervene in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and if it continues to invest in oil projects in Iraq, it will become an excellent target for the Iranian army.
Now the oil output of the United States has reached its peak, with a daily output of about 13 million barrels, and the crude oil production capacity of the United States has reached the peak of output value.
Behind the withdrawal from the West Gurna-1 oilfield project is the global strategic contraction of the United States, the strength of the United States is no longer enough to support the global strategic expansion, there are a lot of domestic problems, even the world's number one power can not avoid the historical cycle of decline.
The U.S. has completed its withdrawal from Afghanistan and has reduced the size of its troops stationed in Iraq over the years, making U.S. overseas assets projects that are not protected by the U.S. military completely unsafe and becoming a "hostage" of the Iranian military.
The United States has set up too many enemies in the world, and regards East Asia, the South China Sea, and the Taiwan Strait as the core areas to contain China.
Three: What should we do
The Americans' approach has left us with enough experience and lessons, first of all, military strength must keep up with the pace of overseas construction, with the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, China has built a large number of overseas projects and infrastructure in the Indian Ocean, the Middle East and North Africa, and needs overseas military force more than anything.
The Chinese military urgently needs to improve its ability to protect overseas assets, but for now, the Chinese military's operational scope is still limited to China's periphery, and it lacks the ability to fight across continents far from its homeland.
In the Middle East, the Chinese military has only deployed a small number of marines in Djibouti, and is more responsible for overseas support bases, and is not competent for overseas missions.
Although the Chinese Navy has achieved the regular deployment of escort ships in the Gulf of Aden all year round, only three surface ships carry out escort missions.
Combat ships usually have only one destroyer and one frigate, and such a scale is not competent for the double test of protecting overseas state-owned assets and protecting the safety of people's lives and property.
Therefore, the Chinese military urgently needs to strengthen overseas military bases and military forces, and gradually increase overseas military deployments, so as to have more say in the matter.
In addition, China's armed forces also need to strengthen their overseas force projection and strike capabilities that are conducive to their homeland, especially their transcontinental strike projection capabilities of at least 5,000 kilometers, which requires a large number of air force fleets represented by the Y-20 and naval forces with ocean-going fleets as the core.
Today, at the historical turning point of great changes unseen in a century, we should all the more judge the hour and size up the situation and seize the opportunity to achieve the great goal of national rejuvenation.
When an opportunity is presented to you, and you make a strategic mistake and fail to seize the historical opportunity, our children and grandchildren will curse us.