BYD, which has the most complaints in 2023, can it afford to be smart in the whole vehicle?

Image source@Visual China

Text: Silver Arrow Financial View

BYD opened a press conference without "black technology".

On January 16, BYD announced the strategic direction of the next stage of vehicle intelligence in a high-profile manner at the "2024 BYD Dream Day" press conference. Whether it is the huge investment of 100 billion yuan or the overall plan vaguely benchmarking Huawei's intelligent driving system, it has excited all walks of life.

It's just that compared with the smart car conferences that are all kinds of "black technology" at every turn in recent years, BYD is somewhat simple. In addition, BYD's voice in the field of intelligent driving is slightly weak, and the consumer level did not make too many waves after the press conference.

Especially in the past 2023, BYD once again topped the list of auto complaints, and its popular new energy models have become the "hardest hit area" for complaints. The good momentum of high sales and high growth seems to be magnifying BYD's new energy defects year-on-year.

Just like at this dream day, Wang Chuanfu said: "Making smart cars is like building a house, it is not something that can be done by knocking on code, it must be based on the electrification of automobiles, and if the foundation is not done well, it is building a dangerous house." ”

Is BYD's electric vehicle really the foundation for carrying the intelligence of the whole vehicle?

Combined with the current situation of the new energy vehicle market and the process of automotive intelligence, we have the following understandings:

1. After BYD's success in the first half of the sales competition, it is gratifying to finally fill the shortcomings of intelligence in the second half of the intelligent competition that is about to fall behind. However, the time is short and the task is heavy, and BYD also has the potential risk of "quick success".

2. How to define the future development direction of smart cars has not yet been determined in the industry. Whether it is Huawei or BYD, all the current debates in the field of intelligent driving are essentially competing for the right to speak and the right to define.

The vehicle intelligence under the huge number of complaints, less than 200,000 yuan is "not worthy" to enjoy?

"There are many car popularity" can be said to be the truest portrayal of BYD in recent years.

After entering the era of new energy vehicles, BYD's sales and reputation have become popular all the way, and it has already stood at the high point of the industry in 2023.

According to incomplete statistics, from 2021 to 2023, BYD's annual sales will be 740,000, 1.86 million, and 3.02 million respectively. While fulfilling the annual sales target of 3 million vehicles, BYD has also become the "domestic light" of today's new energy vehicles step by step from the "key man" who broke the monopoly of joint ventures.

It's just that there are gains and losses, and the rapid development of the hot in exchange for a very high number of holdings, BYD's complaint probability has also increased significantly.

According to the statistics of Autodoor.com, in 2023, when sales increased by 62.3% year-on-year, BYD's complaint index reached 37,526.3, ranking first in the industry. FAW Toyota, which ranks second on the complaint list, has a complaint index of only 19969.45, which can be said to have been "overtaken" by BYD for nearly a lap.

At the same time, it is difficult to ignore that BYD's complaint index in 2022 is only 8180.15, an increase of 358.75% in the past year, an increase of nearly 3.5 times. Specific to BYD's various models, the most concentrated complaints are Song PLUS new energy, with an index of 10066.45, followed by Han with a complaint index of 7732.15, and Seal with 5675.5.

The increase in the complaint rate due to the higher sales base does not seem to be enough to explain the concentration of complaints about these models.

Looking back on the whole year of 2023, Song PLUS has sold a total of 427,000 units, Han 228,000 units, and 62,000 Seal units. In 2023, the "sales champion" of BYD's models, Qin, which has annual sales of more than 482,000 units, and Yuan, which has sales of more than 428,000 units, will only have a complaint index of 2465.1 and 1564.1.

In addition to the complaints caused by the dissatisfaction of the owners due to the manufacturer's price reduction within one month after the car was picked up, more complaints were caused by abnormal engine starting, rusty body, car machine jamming, configuration inconsistent with the official announcement, etc.

Although the truth of the complaints from various channels still needs to be verified, and it does not represent the overall quality of BYD's new energy vehicles, Song PLUS New Energy, which has the most concentrated "fire", has indeed been frequently exposed to problems such as battery life shrinkage, charging failures, and hybrid mode switching failures since the second half of 2023.

This is not only the problem of Song PLUS new energy, if BYD's 150,000-200,000 yuan new energy vehicles have adopted a similar supporting design, then Song PLUS new energy battery, power and other key problems are likely to extend to more models.

Unfortunately, at the press conference, Wang Chuanfu revealed: "In the future, BYD's high-end intelligent driving system will be available as an option for more than 200,000 models, and it will be fully standard for more than 300,000 models." ”

From the perspective of consumers, it is difficult not to think about such a possibility - BYD's new energy models below 200,000 yuan seem to not only have to bear a relatively poor quality experience, but also "unworthy" to enjoy a high-end intelligent driving system in the future.

Putting aside the probability that this may become a fact, in the view of Silver Arrow Finance, the electrical foundation problems of new energy models exposed by Song PLUS new energy have made BYD's 100 billion yuan "vehicle intelligence" plan to be put to a slightly embarrassing height.

If BYD's electrification foundation is not yet stable, how long will it take for BYD's high-end intelligent driving system to "eat" the dividends of BYD's high-sales models?

You must know that Huawei's Hongmeng intelligent driving system blessed models, a new generation of smart cars led by the M7, are seizing BYD's market share from the mid-to-high-end market. Unless BYD can make up for the shortcomings of intelligence in a short period of time, even if the high-end intelligent driving system comes out, its empowerment effect will be greatly reduced.

Through Tianyancha, it can be seen that BYD has rarely applied for patents related to intelligent driving in the near future. It is too late to pay attention to intelligent driving, and it is difficult to say whether it will become BYD's weakness for a long time.

What I am most afraid of now is whether BYD will have the illusion of "becoming fat in one bite", and take too big a step on the road of high-end intelligence.

It must be known that in this unpretentious press conference, BYD launched the "Xuanji" AI large model in order to comply with the wave of large models on the car. In addition, there is the new DiLink cockpit platform and DiPilot intelligent driving platform.

In addition, the L2 intelligent driving assistance system will be named DiPilot 10 and 30 platforms, and the "Eye of Heaven" high-end intelligent driving assistance system will be named DiPilot 100, 300 and 600. In the research and development of high-end intelligent driving, BYD obviously has a heroic mentality of "children only do multiple-choice questions, I want them all".

Such a determination and mentality is certainly impressive, but if you carefully consider the details, it is not difficult to find that whether it is an AI model, a cockpit system, an intelligent driving platform, a high-end assistance, etc., it is recognized as a "big money eater" in the industry.

Take a look at the AI model of the "life and death" of the technology track next door, and then see how Huawei, Baidu and other companies do not hesitate to cost high-end intelligent driving. BYD, which has been late for so long in the field of intelligent driving, will have to pay what kind of time and money to catch up with the steps of the pioneers?

If BYD really wants to take advantage of this "intelligent driving of the whole vehicle" and become the "fat man" in the first echelon of the track, perhaps the unlucky day is not far away.

Intelligent driving is still a short board in the industry, and Xuanji is not the best solution for BYD?

In fact, strictly speaking, intelligent driving is not only the shortcoming of BYD, but also the shortcomings of the entire intelligent automotive industry.

The development of the intelligent automotive industry has entered a new stage, and in the first half, the competition for hardware performance has become dominant. But as time goes by, the intelligent driving experience has gradually become the key to winning or losing.

At present, the L2+ intelligent driving technology in the domestic market has become mature, and the technical strength of many car companies has reached the L3 level. However, according to a large number of user feedback and the evaluation of industry experts, although the intelligent driving performance of domestic smart cars is worthy of affirmation, due to the lack of technical level, it still brings many challenges to the development of the entire industry.

In order to change this dilemma, a great deal of attention and support has been given at the national level. As Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at a press conference on January 19, in the next step, relevant departments will strengthen macro guidance, strengthen industry management, and promote the high-quality development of the automotive industry.

For BYD, this is an opportunity at the same time, but also means more challenges.

According to the information revealed at the press conference, BYD's intelligent development is not limited to the intelligent upgrade of existing models, but is based on the construction of new models and new architectures. Although starting from scratch is conducive to creativity, but the lack of support from mature models, the future vehicle intelligence will still face the test of market competition after it is officially put into the market.

Therefore, Silver Arrow Financial View believes that before seeking a breakthrough in high-level intelligent driving, BYD should pay more attention to other shortcomings that it has been exposed.

First of all, in terms of product positioning and market strategy, although BYD's development in the field of new energy vehicles started earlier, its market strategy and product positioning have always been controversial. In the context of increasingly fierce market competition, BYD urgently needs to make precise adjustments to its market positioning and strategic direction in order to win the favor of more consumers.

Secondly, in terms of quality, although BYD has strong technical strength and quality management system, its potential safety hazards and quality problems in charging along the way of new energy vehicles cannot be ignored. It is necessary for BYD to strengthen quality control and improve the safety and stability of vehicles.

Third, in terms of production capacity, with the increase in BYD's sales, its production capacity is facing certain bottlenecks. In order to achieve sustainable development, BYD needs to further increase its production capacity to meet the growing market demand.

Finally, in terms of marketing, although BYD has invested a lot of resources in brand promotion, its marketing methods and channels still need to be further improved and innovated. In order to increase its market share, BYD needs to increase investment in brand promotion and marketing promotion.

And for the AI large model on the car, although the self-developed large model products are more flexible and adaptable, but the long-term research and development, huge investment, and the possibility of not seeing profitability in the short term, we do not think this is a particularly suitable field for car companies.

Unless there is a larger blueprint planning that can carry the application value of the Xuanji large model, for BYD, perhaps a voice assistant and a third-party large model software are the best solution for efficiency and affordability.

Of course, BYD's ambitions should not be limited to this. After high-end intelligent driving, we are also very happy to see that BYD will label itself as a technology company and seek more dimensional business breakthroughs.

In the short term, I still hope that BYD can make steady progress and make the intelligent driving of the whole vehicle more smooth.