Players on the test | Data revealed: How far is Doncic from becoming James' successor
The All-Star Weekend came to an end, and James ended his record-breaking 20th All-Star Tour, perhaps because James' performance was too lacklustre, and everyone suddenly realized that one of the greatest stars in NBA history may be leaving the game soon, and during the All-Star break, reporters all asked the same question: "Who will be the successor to the throne of James?" ”
James gave his own answer: " When I first came into the league, I didn't see myself as a representative of anything, I didn't see myself as the next Michael Jordan or Jordan's successor, and the first thing that came to mind when I came into the league was that now we have to start over, and I don't think everybody can say, okay, this player is who is next, and you have to make it go according to the rules, and then we'll see, but we have some very, very good players in the league who can take on any of the heavy lifting if they put their mind to it and are willing to accept it. ”
In addition to James, other interviewed players and league executives have given their own answers, Doncic, Alexander, Edwards and other young players are frequently on the list, this matter has caused heated discussions in basketball circles around the world, the American media launched a vote "who will be the face of the NBA in the next five years", the result is Doncic was elected first with a high vote, Doncic does have many very similarities with James, today's players on the test I will briefly analyze, Doncic at this stage has James's success.
James's career is divided into several stages, each stage has different technical characteristics, tactical play, and James and Doncic both entered the league at the age of 19, this season is Doncic's sixth season in the NBA, I will take the sixth season of James' career as a benchmark, and use the data of the two to make a horizontal comparison, of course, because the two are in different environments, teammates are different, and opponents are different, this comparison conclusion is not objective, but only serves as a reference.
The sixth year of James' career was the 2008-09 season, which was a landmark season for James, this season he won the regular season MVP honor for the first time in his career, received 109 first picks out of 121 votes, and finally beat Kobe Bryant (698 points) and Wade (680 points) with a high score of 1172 without suspense, and he was selected to the All-NBA team, the best defensive team, and ranked second only to Howard in the Best Defensive Player selection, Selected to the best team for four consecutive years, the best result in the regular season MVP selection is fourth, although this season has not been played, but in the regular season MVP predictions of major media, Jokic and Alexander are far ahead, not counting Embiid who quit the competition with an injury, so Doncic's best MVP ranking may be third, and Doncic is even more redundant on the list of best defensive teams and best defensive players, and his defensive problems have been criticized.
In terms of leading the team's record, James won the first record in the league with 66-16 in the 08-09 season, and the Mavericks have a decent record this season, currently ranked seventh in the West with 32 wins and 23 losses, and it is possible to surpass James, Doncic's best record in his career is 52-30 in the 21-22 season, ranking fourth in the West, and in terms of playoff results, James led the team to the Eastern Conference Finals in the 08-09 season, and finally lost 4-2 to the Orlando Magic led by Howard, but two years ago, James led the team to the Finals in the fourth year of his career, although he lost to the San Antonio Spurs, he still established a huge reputation, and Doncic's current playoff results are two rounds and one Western Conference Finals, we make a simple comparison with regular season honors, regular season records, and playoff records, at this time, James has become a superstar in the NBA league with one offense and defense, and the league's first reputation is officially established, and Doncic at this stage can only be regarded as an excellent All-Star, and there is a regular season MVP from James, A finals and two peaks are waiting to be surpassed, and these two peaks are also the Everest that many stars have been seeking for in their careers.
Then let's go deeper into the detailed data, through the data to face the difference in the level of the two, first of all, the most important data score, James averaged 37.7 minutes per game in the 08-09 season and scored 28.4 points, ranked second in the scoring list that season, the scoring champion is Wade 30.2 points per game, as of February 19 this season, Doncic averaged 37.4 minutes per game and scored 34.2 points, currently ranked first in the league, and Alexander, who ranked second, averaged 31.1 points per game, as long as Doncic continues to maintain this level, he will have a good chance of winning the scoring title, last season he averaged 32 per game.4 points ranked second in the league, narrowly lost to Embiid with an average of 33.1 points per game, James' career regular season high was 31.4 points in the 05-06 season, ranked third in that season, behind Kobe (35.4) Iverson (33), it can be said that James and Dong are both the league's top scorers, and it needs to be emphasized that their scores are cut in the face of the strongest defensive force in the league, both of them enjoy one of the league's best targeted defenses at this stage of their careers, the strongest defenders of each team, and various targeted defensive deployments, Doncic averaged 19 per game last yearRanked first in the league in the number of 2 packs.
In terms of refinement, James's scoring methods in the 08-09 season are still very different from the current Doncic, at this time James still relies on physical breakthroughs, impact the inside frame, and get foul free throws, because the NBA's breakthrough technical statistics are as early as 2013, so I didn't find James's breakthrough data that season, but I can analyze it through other data, James averaged only 4.7 three-point shots per game that season, hitting 1.6 shots per game, and scoring 4 points on three-pointers accounted for 14% of the total score , and the two-point court average of 15.2 shots, 8.1 shots to score 16 points, accounting for 60 percent of the total score, plus an average of 9.4 free throws per game (ranked third in the league that season) hit 7.3 balls to form the overall scoring distribution, the NBA league at that time was still the era of interior king, and James happened to meet the top rim player Howard in the Eastern Conference Finals that year, and the scoring method was limited, and the result was finally hated the Eastern Conference Finals.
Now Doncic is different, he grew up in the small-ball era, is the benchmark player of the magic ball theory, this season three-point shooting average 10.3 times per game (second only to Curry in the regular season) hit 3.9 shots, shooting rate of 37.5%, nearly 12 points accounted for 35% of the total scoring ratio, of course, three points can only be regarded as Doncic's main scoring means, he is definitely a super all-round scorer, currently the league's No. 1 singles king, averaging 81% of singles 7 rounds per game The most special point is that Doncic has the ability to play singles in the low post, and he is currently ranked 26th in the league with 97 low-post singles, and he is the only guard player in the top 50 players in the number of low-post singles.
His breakthrough is even more ghost-like, not fast, but he uses his rhythm and physical confrontation to easily establish an advantage, and currently ranks third in the league with 881 breakthroughs (behind Alexander and Brunson), and has 398 attempts to hit 245 balls with a shooting rate of 61.6%, which ranks second among all players in the league who have broken through more than 300 times (62.9% of the first letter brother) ), The shooting rate is quite high, and Brother Alphabet's kind of breakthrough dunk is different, his breakthrough layup is the perfect combination of solid technology and silky feel, as well as a three-inch throw that breaks through to the hinterland to hit the snake, bullying all kinds of stump centers can not be used, if Brother Alphabet is a domineering man, then Doncic is a talented gentleman, in addition, Doncic averaged 9.3 free throws per game and ranked second in the league (only 10.9 times lower than Brother Alphabet), let's just say that Doncic's arsenal has all the scoring weapons, and they are all proficient, as long as he wants to score, no one can stop him.
From the point of view of scoring ability, Doncic is currently more comprehensive than James at the same time, which is the biggest reason why everyone is optimistic about his promising future, but this also has a significant relationship with the general environment, the current NBA league actively encourages offense for game viewing and ratings, James first reached the Finals when David Stern woke up with a dream, he thought that the league's new Jordan was about to be born, but then the Spurs strangled his championship dream with iron-blooded defense, and the ratings of the Finals that year hit the second lowest in history at that time, and the following year Stern signaled the referee to be more strict and blow No Handcheck fouls, vigorously encourage offense, the latest statistic is that the Golden State Warriors, who won 73 in the 15-16 season, can only rank 21st in offensive efficiency this season, through this exaggerated data development, everyone can clearly realize how much the league encourages offense, so there is still a certain quality difference between Doncic and James's scoring data, but no matter what era, if a player wants to achieve achievements, scoring ability is a hard indicator, and Doncic's inexplicable scoring ability gives him the confidence to attack any target。
After talking about scoring, let's talk about leadership ability, this is the most similar place between Doncic and James, the two are described as "ball-handling core" in a new era word, Doncic's ball possession rate of 35.9% this season ranks second in the league, second only to Embiid, and James's ball possession usage rate of 33.8% in the 08-09 season It is also the second in the league, only lower than Wade, because of the inexplicable offensive ability makes a team have one-third of the ball controlled by the two, and the other two have very good ability to respond to assists, Doncic ranks third in the league in 9.5 assists per game this season (lower than Haliburton and Trae Young), and ranks fourth in the league in the league in 43.4% of the assist rate, while James ranks 10th in the league in the league in averaging 7.2 assists per game in the 08-09 season, with an assist rate of 38% Ranked 9th in the league, Doncic's ability to respond to assists is stronger than James' from the data alone, which has something to do with the position played by the two, Doncic's main point guard is specialized in this errand, and James is the No. 3 position, he uses his personal threat to attract the center of gravity after the assist pass, this data is most directly related to the ability of his teammates, the main players around James at that time were Ilgoskas, Ben Wallace, Deron West, Mo Williams, Vallejo, Szebiak, and now Doncic is surrounded by Irving, Jones, Lively, Josh Green, Hardaway and the departed Williams, in terms of popularity and star ability, the Cavaliers are stronger than the current Mavericks, even so, Doncic is still ahead in assist statistics, so I think Doncic is stronger than James in assists.
Doncic ranked 7th in the league with 131 key points last season, 7th in the newly established Mr. Key of the Year awards, 28th in the league with 56 points this season because of the team's poor record, and James ranked 8th in the league with 129 points in the 08-09 season, and it is worth mentioning that he was 55% that year The key scoring percentage ranks second among the top 30 players in the league in key scoring, just below Carmelo Anthony's 56%, while Doncic's key shooting percentage was only 44% last season.
Defensively, I won't give specific examples, just like the aforementioned James won the second place in the best defensive player in the 08-09 season, any player is stunned when he sees him, and Doncic's defensive efficiency is not high, this season's 2.3 defensive victory contribution value is the lowest in 6 years of his career, Doncic may be difficult to become a super core of offense and defense.
According to the NBA's historical experience, because of James's offensive and defensive attributes, he will immediately become a strong contender for the championship even if he is combined with a super scorer, and Doncic's offensive and defensive characteristics require a core partner of offense and defense, the most recent example is that he and Brunson can get a good record, but if you change to Irving, who is also strong and weak in offense and defense, the combat power will immediately decline, Doncic's situation is somewhat similar to Curry, but Doncic does not have those near-All-Star partners of the Warriors around him, which means that it is difficult for Doncic to make a breakthrough in the playoffs。
On the whole, Doncic has reached or even surpassed James in terms of scoring means and organizational strategy compared to James at the same time, but there is still a big gap compared to James in terms of defense and the upper limit of the team's performance.