Gap low in the morning after the rapid downward, in the lower gap position by the support of the rapid rebound, in one fell swoop to make up for the gap left in the morning, obviously the force of the bottom is very strong, Hong Kong stocks took the lead in rebounding, driving the strength of A shares, does it mean that the short-term strength, can you surprise everyone, what factors affect the market next?
Aside from the news of the bearish side during the festival, from the pre-holiday trend alone, I repeatedly remind you that the probability of a short-term downward decline after the holiday is larger, whether it can be pulled up, the key depends on the performance of foreign capital, if foreign capital does not give force, the probability of filling the gap downward is very large, the short-term trend is as weak as we expected, but the amount of foreign capital outflow has increased, and the index has risen rapidly, obviously the short-term is stronger than expected. After a sharp fall in the morning, it stabilized slightly, how to go in the short term,
1. Although the short-term bottoming out, the short-term trend is still not optimistic:
First, the last two trading days before the holiday market weakened, the main foreign capital returned after a slight decline, affecting the confidence of the market to do long, there are two major reasons for the outflow of foreign capital, one is the pre-holiday foreign capital rest two ago, and the market rose sharply in the two days of the foreign capital break, so after the return of foreign capital, it is impossible to take over at a high level, the probability of homeopathic selling is larger, so it is not surprising that foreign capital sells, the second is affected by the small long holiday factor, foreign capital is also out of the requirement of hedging, with these two factors, we do not have too much panic about the outflow of foreign capital。 However, on the last trading day before the holiday, the news of Yehua's visit to China came out, indicating signs of warming up in Sino-US relations.
Second, the short-term is facing an important time window
2. The market will usher in a super central bank week
First, this week's super central bank week, there are blockbuster economic data releases, especially in the United States, April 10 and 11 respectively released March CPI and PPI data, and in terms of financial reports, on April 12, JPMorgan Chase, Citibank, Wells Fargo and BlackRock will announce their results for the first quarter ending March 2024. This is related to the expectation of whether the Fed will cut interest rates next, if the data is significantly better than expected, the expectation of interest rate cuts will increase during the year, once the expectation of interest rate cuts heats up, it will bring confidence to the global capital market, and the probability of A shares rising is very high. If inflation is still high, the expectation of interest rate cuts this year will basically drop to zero, which will have a negative impact on the capital market, but A-shares are at a low level, and the domestic monetary policy is different from that of the United States, which will not have a big impact on A-shares.
Second, the CPI and PPI data for March will be released on April 11, and in addition, the M2 money supply, social financing scale, and new RMB loans for March may also be released this week. The CPI and PPI data showed a certain improvement in February, and if the improvement continues in March, it means that consumption has begun to recover, and the increase in the ex-factory price of industrial products means that demand has increased and business life has expanded. Earnings expectations for the future of companies are heating up. It will inject momentum into the market rebound.
Until the release of important data, the market will remain relatively stable, and there will be no major changes.
3. What factors drag down the short-term market:
First, the continuous outflow of foreign capital, with a net outflow two days before the holiday, is understandable, but it is somewhat incomprehensible that foreign capital continues to flow out after the holiday. Although the overall outflow of foreign capital is not large, it has a great impact on the capital of foreign capital, so the overall confidence of the market is insufficient.
Second, the reason why the morning bottom rebounded was mainly due to the sharp rise of two barrels of oil, as well as the sharp rise in high dividend yields such as banks, coal, and electricity, and the weight of the index rebounded, resulting in some distortion of the market index and the lack of money-making effect. There is not much point in pulling up without a money-making effect, it cannot attract funds to follow suit, and once the weight falls, it will cause secondary damage to the market.
Third, with negative news about securities and declining performance, it is difficult to find upward momentum in addition to restructuring expectations. Real estate is difficult to improve, and banks and real estate are obviously at odds with each other. Brewing insurance plummeted, the overall weight is a differentiated pattern, the weight can not form a joint force, the index can not attack, plus the main line is missing, there is no money-making effect, and investment confidence is insufficient.
4. There are signs of stabilization in the short term, and the gap below has not been filled.
First, it is difficult to stabilize in the short term, and it is difficult to stimulate investor confidence in the market without a money-making effect
Second, the middle line continues to rebound, strengthen the confidence of holding shares, and can only increase positions when the operation falls sharply, not chasing up. I hit the gap in the morning, and I decisively replenished the position, and now I have a small surplus.
Third, now non-ferrous metals, gold and other resource varieties have risen too high in the short term, and it is difficult for funds to participate in it, and the short-term can no longer chase high.
Fourth, the price of gold has soared, refreshing history, and the price of crude oil has also continued to rise, and will continue to spread to the resource sector, focusing on the resource varieties that have not risen sharply, rare metals, and chemical products.
In the morning in the context of the overall outflow of institutional funds, the market bottomed out, the rapid rise of Hong Kong stocks stimulated the formation of A-shares, the high dividend yield weight sector represented by two barrels of oil contributed the most to the index, the index in the process of pulling up and turning red, the average stock price of the market did not change much, the market money-making effect was missing, the fall limit was more, the weight of the disk did not bring about the improvement of the market's confidence in long, the northbound continued outflow, and the probability of maintaining shocks in the afternoon was very high. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Board are obviously weaker, which is a drag on the Shanghai Composite Index, and there is still momentum to fill the gap downward in the short term.