原文标题：Lessons From History: A Retrospective on Bitcoin Halvings and Industry Dynamics
原文作者：binance
原文来源：binance
编译:Kate, 火星财经
Key takeaways:
• Bitcoin Halving, which aims to regulate the supply of new BTC tokens, has historically influenced token supply dynamics, market sentiment, and adoption.
• Halving tends to increase Bitcoin's visibility, which leads to an increase in price and adoption. They have also sparked discussions related to blockchain technology, the dynamics of the Bitcoin network, and crypto as a unique asset class.
• Although historical patterns show that in the months following the halving event, BTC prices have risen and expanded adoption, it is important to note that the upcoming halving in April 2024 has proven unprecedented in several important ways.
The Bitcoin halving is an event at the heart of the original cryptocurrency value proposition, and it's more than just a footnote in the history of digital finance; In this article, we take a closer look at the multifaceted impact of the Bitcoin halving on the digital asset industry, revealing its impact beyond short-term price movements. The next halving event is expected to occur in the third week of April and is now nearing its end, and it's instructive to look at historical data. However, the pattern observed this time does not in any way guarantee a similar result: the current cycle unfolds in a unique context and has already proven to differ from historical precedent in some important respects.
It's ancient history
Halving is a fundamental mechanism in the Bitcoin protocol that aims to regulate the issuance of new tokens by regularly reducing mining rewards. This deliberate reduction, designed to curb the rate at which new bitcoins are created, plays a key role in shaping Bitcoin's tokenomics and supply dynamics, reinforcing Bitcoin's deflationary nature and underpinning Bitcoin's value proposition. To encapsulate the basic facts of the Bitcoin halving, check out our video explaining:
Original video
Historically, Bitcoin halving has had a powerful impact on the crypto industry and the broader financial ecosystem. Through the lens of history, tracing the halving events of 2012, 2016, and 2020, we can observe how halving affected certain recurring patterns in the crypto world. These events served as an inflection point, catalyzing volatility in market sentiment and investor behavior, and interrupting Bitcoin's evolution as the locomotive of the crypto ecosystem.
After 150 days
When dissecting the consequences of the halving event, one cannot ignore their impact on the price and market capitalization of Bitcoin. At the heart of the halving mechanism is the principle of scarcity, which attracts investors seeking to issue limited assets, thereby driving up the value of assets. As time goes on, supply decreases and demand increases, and at least in theory, a phase of price increases is ready, which is usually achieved gradually over the next few months, rather than immediately.
Historically, Bitcoin has experienced significant price increases within 5-6 months of each halving event. For example, in the 150 days following the first three halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, the price of Bitcoin increased by 999%, 15%, and 24%, respectively.
In every four-year period between previous halving events, Bitcoin has reached new all-time highs. In the 2020-2024 cycle, this all-time high was achieved in October 2022, when Bitcoin broke through the $66,000 mark. The upcoming 2024 halving is unique in that for the first time in its history, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high ahead of the halving in early March 2024. It remains to be seen whether this will be a warm-up before hitting new highs after the halving, or if it will reach a coveted high too soon.
The mechanism by which the halving has an impact on prices may be by shaping market sentiment and investor perceptions. In addition to building expectations within the crypto community, the halving event has fueled narratives about the advantages of algorithmic monetary policy and the deflationary nature of digital assets, sparking interest from outside the crypto space and pushing new players into the space.
Go beyond the price
In addition to price-related impacts and increased attention (in part through those effects), the halving is also associated with a deep, long-term increase in the adoption of indicators. Bitcoin's increased popularity before and after the halving has spurred more newcomers to explore and potentially buy the digital currency, helping to expand its user base.
In addition, Bitcoin's halving has prompted miners to reassess the cryptocurrency's underlying technology and network dynamics as miners undergo a transformation. There is a growing discussion around cybersecurity, transaction fees, and scalability solutions. Enhancements in these areas enhance the robustness of the Bitcoin network and boost the confidence of users and businesses, thereby creating a favorable environment for Bitcoin adoption. Halving also tends to reduce miners' profit margins, creating additional Bitcoin selling pressure from miners and accelerating the integration of mining operations and mining pools.
With each halving event, the need for efficiency and innovation becomes more apparent, which drives technological advancements that not only improve the performance of the Bitcoin network, but also increase its appeal to a wider audience.
Let's take a look at a simple adoption indicator – the number of active Bitcoin addresses – using the same 150-day window as the price dynamics. In the first 150 days of each previous halving, the number of new Bitcoin addresses grew: 83% in 2012, 101% in 2016, and 11% in 2020.
The number of addresses holding assets of $100 and above (which is a rough representation of the number of retail investors) increased by 12% in 2012 and 6% in 2020, and remained largely unchanged in the 150 days following the 2020 halving. While these are imperfect indicators that employ dynamics and sentiment (e.g., one person can create multiple wallets), they indicate the direction and magnitude of the trend following the past halving.
Similarly, institutional interest in Bitcoin tends to spike around the time of the halving event, driven by Bitcoin's ability to serve as a store of value and a potential hedge against inflation. The high-profile support from corporate bonds and high-profile investors confirmed Bitcoin's legitimacy as an investable asset class, further boosting its adoption. With the inflow of institutional capital into the cryptocurrency market, infrastructure and products have emerged, paving the way for widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies by traditional financial institutions and retail investors.
For example, the number of wallets holding more than $1 million, which can be considered an indicator of professional or institutional investment activity, grew by thousands of percentage points in 2012, 10% in 2016, and 43% in 2020.
What's next?
The next Bitcoin halving will take place in April, against the backdrop of strong inflows from the Bitcoin industry and centralized exchanges like Binance, as well as a boom in institutional participation fostered by the US-approved spot Bitcoin ETF.
Coupled with the surge in Layer 2 solutions and DeFi activity that enhance the actual utility of the network, this setup is starting to be very beneficial for the Bitcoin ecosystem and the broader crypto space.
However, it is important to remember that while the context surrounding the 2024 halving is auspicious, there is no guarantee that its dynamics and impact will reflect previous halving events. Each halving represents a unique node in Bitcoin's development, influenced by changing market conditions, technological advancements, and regulatory developments. So, while there is optimism about the transformative potential of the 2024 halving, caution requires acknowledging the inherent unpredictability of market dynamics and the need for vigilance when navigating the changing landscape of digital assets.
Each Bitcoin halving represents a fundamental shift in the crypto industry, with far-reaching implications for adoption and market evolution. In addition to the direct impact on price and investor sentiment, the Bitcoin halving has fostered interest and awareness, institutional involvement, and technological innovation in Bitcoin, laying the foundation for continued growth and maturity in digital finance. As we navigate the ever-evolving crypto space, the importance of the Bitcoin halving is a testament to the enduring strength and resilience of our industry.