Source: Social Security Engineering
In March this year, the double growth of pensions has been determined, because the government work report mentioned that the pensions of retirees and the basic pensions of urban and rural residents ushered in a rise at the same time, that is to say, the pension has achieved double growth. Now that the time has come to Qingming, according to the pension adjustment practice, it is time for the pension adjustment notice to be announced. Since last year's increase of 3.8% compared with 2022, a decrease of 0.2% compared with 2022, there are retirees who are concerned, will this year's pension increase further decline, to 3%-3.6%?
Let's first take a look at the release time of the pension increase notice in recent years, 2018 and 2019 were announced in March, 2020 and 2021 were all issued around the beginning of April, and 2022 and 2023 are relatively special, announced on May 16 and May 22 respectively. However, this year's economic and social development situation is better, is not expected to be postponed to May announcement, since there is no pension rise notice announced in March, then it is likely to be announced in April, then we can see the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued a pension adjustment notice, to determine this year's pension adjustment increase, direction, focus, proportion and so on.
As we all know, the increase in pensions began to decline in 2016, with an increase of 6.5% in 2016, 5.5% in 2017, 5% in 2018, 5% in 2019, 5% in 2020, 4.5% in 2021, 4% in 2022, and 3.8% in 2023.
It can be seen that according to such a downward trend, this year's pension increase is also likely to continue to decline, less than 3.8% of the probability is relatively large, on the basis of last year's 3.8%, down 0.2%, or down 0.3%, or down 0.8%, to 3%, there is such a possibility.
According to the provisions of the Social Security Law, the pension of retirees will rise in a timely manner according to the rise in prices and the increase in the per capita wages of in-service personnel, that is to say, the two most critical factors for the rise, one is the rise in prices, and the other is the increase in the per capita salary of in-service personnel.
Let's first look at a set of data, in 2023, GDP will grow by 5.2%, the per capita disposable income of residents will increase by 6.1% in real terms, and the per capita wage income of residents will increase by 7.1%, without a sharp increase. In terms of prices, the national CPI rose by 0.2% over last year, and there was no significant increase, and prices were generally stable.
However, considering that since 2022, the number of new retirees has surged, and the number of new elderly people who have reached the age of 60 has reached more than 15 million every year, coupled with the fact that the basic pension of urban and rural residents has risen by 20 yuan per person per month this year, for 170 million people, the pressure on the expenditure of the social security fund is very great. Therefore, there is no room for a sharp rise in pensions for retirees this year, that is to say, the overall increase in pensions this year is 3%-3.6%, which is very likely.
If the pension rises between 3% and 3.6% this year, how much can the pension rise? In fact, the amount of personal pension increase is not the pension multiplied by the increase in the range, but from the fixed amount adjustment, linked adjustment, inclined adjustment three steps. However, for local per capita perspectives, the overall adjustment level can be roughly calculated. For example, the local per capita pension is 3,500 yuan, an overall increase of 3.6%, then the local per capita pension increase is 126 yuan. And if it rises by 3%, then the local per capita pension will rise by 105 yuan. Therefore, the adjustment level is determined based on the local per capita pension level, that is to say, in areas with high pensions, the increase will be more.
Sum up
In April, the pension increase notice may be announced, but for this year's pension increase, we should have certain expectations in our hearts, that is, compared with the increase in 2023, this year will decline, reaching between 3% and 3.6%, which is indeed very likely. However, for retirees, the pension increase is not the pension multiplied by the increase ratio, but according to the fixed amount, linkage, tilt of the three-step adjustment method. However, it is certain that people with high pensions and long working years will have more advantages in raising their money.