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Tsingtao Beer In-depth Research Report: 100 years of green beer wind and rain, structural upgrading to ride the wind and waves 100 years of history of wind and rain, incentive to release kinetic energy 2 Industry analysis: The trend of high-end has been determined, the oligopoly pattern is becoming more and more stable 3 Brands, products, channels work together, troika to drive growth4 The cost control effect is remarkable, and the profitability is remarkable

author:Wealth is

(Report Producer/Author: Southwest Securities, Zhu Huizhen)

<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="2" >1 Hundred years of history, encouraging the landing to release kinetic energy</h1>

Founded in 1903, Tsingtao Beer has developed into a best-selling domestic beer leading enterprise at home and abroad after a century of ups and downs, with 60 breweries and production capacity throughout the country. The company has the national main brand "Qingdao", as well as the regional brands represented by "Laoshan". The company occupies an absolute advantage in Shandong region, has long been deeply cultivating north China along the Yellow River, and also has a high product reputation in coastal urban agglomerations. Tsingtao Beer is loved by consumers across the country for its recognized good taste, and currently ranks second in the industry in terms of market share.

Tsingtao Beer In-depth Research Report: 100 years of green beer wind and rain, structural upgrading to ride the wind and waves 100 years of history of wind and rain, incentive to release kinetic energy 2 Industry analysis: The trend of high-end has been determined, the oligopoly pattern is becoming more and more stable 3 Brands, products, channels work together, troika to drive growth4 The cost control effect is remarkable, and the profitability is remarkable

The state-owned assets holdings are solid, and Fosun is attracted to combat investment. The actual controller of Tsingtao Beer is the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Qingdao Municipality, with a cumulative shareholding ratio of 32.51%. Fosun Group paid HK$6.6 billion in 2017 to acquire a 17.99% stake in Green Beer from Japan's Asahi Beer, becoming the company's second largest shareholder and currently holding 8.15% of the company's equity. The marriage between Green Beer and Fosun can learn from Fosun's experience in improving the management incentive mechanism and strengthen the docking with Fosun resources in the marketing fields such as sports and entertainment. In February 2020, Fosun Global Partner Shi Kun was elected as a non-executive director of the company, and the strategic cooperation between the two sides will continue.

Equity incentives are landed, and the assessment goals are clear. The Company's Restricted Stock Incentive Plan, announced in March 2020, proposes to grant 13.5 million Restricted Incentive Shares to a total of 619 people, including the Chairman, Executive Directors, Company Executives, and other core management, middle management, and core key personnel. The equity incentive plan is unlocked in three phases, and the unlocking conditions are mainly achieved from three aspects: 1) the company's ROE is not less than 8.1%/8.3%/8.5% in 2020/2021/2022, respectively, and the net profit growth rate based on the average net profit of 2016-2018 in the next three years is not less than 50%/70%/100%; 2) the company's ROE cannot be lower than the industry average or the 75th centile value of the benchmark enterprise in the same industry; 3) The company's main business in 2021-2023 The proportion of service income must not be less than 90%. Considering that the company's active closure of the factory in 2018-2019 led to more related expenses, the company's profit target setting is relatively reasonable.

The high-end transformation is smooth, and the profit growth rate far exceeds the revenue growth rate. In 2013, the industry entered a downward inflection point, and the company's revenue reached its peak in 2014; during the three-year adjustment period from 2015 to 2017, the company unswervingly opened the road of high-end and product structure upgrading. Since 2017, the company's revenue growth rate has stopped falling and rebounded, achieving revenue of 28 billion yuan in 2019, an increase of 5% year-on-year; in 2020, it fell slightly by 1% to 27.8 billion yuan affected by the epidemic. In terms of profitability, the company started the sales fee reduction plan in 2017, and began to remove inefficient production capacity in 2018, and the company's net profit CAGR reached 19% in 2017-2020, and the net profit growth rate was significantly better than the revenue growth rate, and the profitability performance was outstanding. Among them, under the influence of the epidemic, the company's ability to control costs has been further improved, and the net profit attributable to the mother will be 2.2 billion yuan in 2020, a significant increase of 19% year-on-year, and the epidemic has become a whetstone for the company's overall operating capacity to improve.

Tsingtao Beer In-depth Research Report: 100 years of green beer wind and rain, structural upgrading to ride the wind and waves 100 years of history of wind and rain, incentive to release kinetic energy 2 Industry analysis: The trend of high-end has been determined, the oligopoly pattern is becoming more and more stable 3 Brands, products, channels work together, troika to drive growth4 The cost control effect is remarkable, and the profitability is remarkable

<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="9" >2 Industry analysis: The trend of high-end has been determined, and the oligopoly pattern is becoming more and more stable</h1>

2.1 Industry development cycle: The industry has entered a mature period, and the logic of volume increase is no longer there

2.1.1 Industry History: From Barbaric Growth to Transformation and Upgrading

The beer industry is now in its mature stage, with production declining year by year and sales growth being weak. Since the reform and opening up, the beer industry can be roughly divided into the following four stages of development:

1) 1978-1995 Period of rapid development: Benefiting from the improvement of residents' purchasing power after the reform and opening up, as well as the state's policy support for the beer industry, new breweries have sprung up across the country, and the supply and demand sides have grown together, and the number of Chinese beer manufacturers has increased from about 100 to 813 in 1978-1988. On the one hand, the rapid expansion of China's beer market has helped some local distilleries stand out in the process of nationalization; on the other hand, due to the influence of local protectionism since the 1980s, the government has deliberately restricted mergers and acquisitions and market competition in the industry, which has hindered the natural development of the industry to a certain extent.

2) 1996-2006 National expansion period: Regional giants with certain strength began their national expansion; at the same time, foreign giants took advantage of China's "WTO accession" spring breeze in 2001 to open a wave of mergers and acquisitions in their layout of domestic beer. By directly acquiring local distilleries, beer companies can not only quickly increase their own production capacity, but also effectively graft their products into the sales channels accumulated by local liquor companies for many years. Tsingtao Beer and China Resources Beer have completed the transformation from regional dragon head to national leader through the acquisition of local beer brands, of which Green Beer acquired 48 beer companies from 1996 to 2002; China Resources acquired 44 beer companies between 1996 and 2006, and came to the top in 2006, and the sales volume rose to the first place in the country, achieving a counterattack on green beer.

3) 2007-2013 Industry integration period: At this stage, the leading enterprises have accelerated the pace of expansion of production capacity, and after years of integration and mergers and acquisitions, five major groups have been formed in China Resources Beer, Tsingtao Beer, Budweiser Beer, Yanjing Beer and Carlsberg Beer, and the oligarchic pattern has gradually taken shape. At the same time, small and medium-sized beer enterprises have experienced large-scale losses, and the progress of industry integration has accelerated. During this period, the construction of beer production capacity of various enterprises showed a certain fluctuation trend, but the industry's output still maintained an increase, and reached a historical peak of 49.83 million hectolitres in 2013.

4) 2014-present Transformation and upgrading period: China's beer production capacity has declined year by year after the inflection point in 2013, and the incremental space of the domestic beer market is almost nothing. Since 2014, the growth rate of total assets in the beer industry has declined sharply, and companies have slowed down the pace of blindly expanding production capacity. In addition, years of price tug-of-war and expansion and mergers have led to the overall profit margin and inefficiency of the industry, and all enterprises are facing the dilemma of "big but not strong." Since 2015, the revenue growth of the beer industry has stagnated, and the revenue side of the industry has continued to decline in 2016-2019. During the transformation period from seeking volume increase to pursuing profits, the giants have completed transformation and upgrading by taking the high-end, adjusting the product structure, and cleaning up inefficient production capacity. Since 2018, the profit side of the beer industry has reversed its downward trend, maintaining positive growth for two consecutive years. In 2019, the industry achieved a profit of 44 billion yuan, an increase of 10% year-on-year, and hit a record high.

2.1.2 Industry status: the impact of population structure and consumption habits, the industry has entered the stage of stock game

The aging trend of the population is aggravating, and it is difficult for beer to have room for increase. Beer has always been loved by young and middle-aged consumers for its refreshing taste and low alcohol content. However, since 2014, the number of young and middle-aged people (15-64 years old) as the main consumer group of beer has been showing a downward trend, and the main consumer group of beer is facing a shrinking dilemma. Compared with other economies in the world, the average consumption of Chinese has exceeded the global average, but there is still a certain gap compared with countries such as Japan and South Korea, which have similar cultural levels.

Tsingtao Beer In-depth Research Report: 100 years of green beer wind and rain, structural upgrading to ride the wind and waves 100 years of history of wind and rain, incentive to release kinetic energy 2 Industry analysis: The trend of high-end has been determined, the oligopoly pattern is becoming more and more stable 3 Brands, products, channels work together, troika to drive growth4 The cost control effect is remarkable, and the profitability is remarkable

Affected by the awakening of residents' health consciousness and other beverages and wines, the domestic per capita beer consumption has stopped falling and stabilized. China's per capita beer consumption from 2013 to 2018 showed a slow downward trend, since 2019 has rebounded, it is expected that the future per capita consumption will be stable at about 30L. After decades of development of beer in China, the penetration rate and per capita consumption have reached a certain degree of bottleneck, and the future changes in beer consumption will be mainly affected by changes in demographic structure and consumption habits. On the one hand, the concept of healthy drinking has become a new trend among consumers, and consumption habits have gradually changed to "drink less and drink good wine"; on the other hand, beer, as a traditional alcoholic beverage, its living space is facing the erosion of other alcoholic beverages such as wine, pre-mixed cocktails, and alcoholic sparkling water.

2.2 Demand and supply two-wheel drive, high-end transformation is imperative

2.2.1 Demand side: consumption upgrade + fresh drinks to promote, imported beer to broaden demand

With the rapid development of China's economy, the national consumption capacity has been significantly improved. In 2020, the per capita distribution income of urban residents nationwide will reach 42,000 yuan, and the average growth rate of per capita disposable income in the past decade will reach 9.5%; in 2020, the per capita expenditure of urban residents on food, tobacco and alcohol will be 7733 yuan, and the compound growth rate of per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents on food, tobacco and alcohol in the past decade will be 5.6%. The growing standard of living not only enhances the purchasing power of consumers when choosing beer, but also gives rise to the demand for high-quality beer, and the trend of consumption upgrading is obvious.

Tsingtao Beer In-depth Research Report: 100 years of green beer wind and rain, structural upgrading to ride the wind and waves 100 years of history of wind and rain, incentive to release kinetic energy 2 Industry analysis: The trend of high-end has been determined, the oligopoly pattern is becoming more and more stable 3 Brands, products, channels work together, troika to drive growth4 The cost control effect is remarkable, and the profitability is remarkable

The proportion of spot drinking channels is stable, which promotes the transformation of high-end beer. The proportion of fresh drinking channels in China's beer industry has long been maintained at about 50%. In 2020, the proportion of ready-to-drink channels affected by the epidemic has declined, but with the widespread vaccination of vaccines and the continuous improvement of the domestic epidemic situation, it is expected that the proportion of ready-to-drink channels will stabilize at 50% for a long time in the future. From the perspective of profit margin, the night channel is mainly based on the sale of ultra-high-end beer, with a mark-up rate of up to 100%-200%; the catering channel is mainly based on the sale of high-end beer, and the mark-up rate remains at 40%-100%; in contrast, the non-ready-to-drink channel mainly sells low-end beer, and the mark-up rate is lower than 30%. At present, various domestic liquor companies have made efforts to open up high-end ready-to-drink channels, such as Pearl River Beer around the PaJiu Beer Cultural and Creative Park to carry out various in-depth cooperation, and has established 5 craft beer experience halls; Tsingtao Beer has officially operated more than 200 green beer 1903 bars nationwide; Budweiser has opened 8 craft beer halls in China.

From the perspective of consumption mode, domestic consumers are not only less sensitive to price in the spot drink scene, but also value brand value. At present, the consumption mode of alcohol products in China is still based on passive or meal-based social sharing, that is, in the scene of spot drink consumption, wine is given a certain degree of social significance. Therefore, consumers can accept high price increases in channels such as high-end catering or night shows, and have higher requirements for the brand value of beer. In recent years, the proportion of traditional Western active personal enjoyment consumption in China has also gradually increased, but there has not yet been explosive growth, and consumers have a higher viscosity of beer categories under the consumption scenario of self-discretion.

New products represented by craft beer have spawned differentiated consumer demands. Craft beer, with its longer fermentation time and diverse taste, stands in stark contrast to the traditional industrial lager that domestic consumers have long consumed. Craft beer has landed in China since the beginning of the 21st century, and after more than ten years of development and promotion, it has cultivated a considerable degree of consumer awareness and demand. The number of craft beer-related enterprises is less than ten in 2009 to close to 2,000 in 2019, and craft beer has entered a period of rapid development in the past decade. Domestic craft beer consumption has maintained a year-on-year upward trend since 2012, and its consumption has also steadily increased its proportion of overall beer consumption. At present, major beer giants have made relevant layouts for the craft brewing trend, such as Budweiser's acquisition of the domestic craft brewing brand Boxing Cat in 2017, and Carlsberg's stake in Beijing A in 2019.

Tsingtao Beer In-depth Research Report: 100 years of green beer wind and rain, structural upgrading to ride the wind and waves 100 years of history of wind and rain, incentive to release kinetic energy 2 Industry analysis: The trend of high-end has been determined, the oligopoly pattern is becoming more and more stable 3 Brands, products, channels work together, troika to drive growth4 The cost control effect is remarkable, and the profitability is remarkable

The volume of imported beer has increased year after year, forcing structural changes in the market. Under the background of the downward trend of domestic beer production, imported beer has maintained a fairly high growth rate in recent years, highlighting the fragmented and segmented consumer demand of consumers. 2012-2016 is an explosive growth period for imported beer, with a five-year CAGR of 69%. On the one hand, beer as a modern industrial import, imported beer in the minds of consumers enjoy the innate "high-end" cognition; on the other hand, the domestic beer market has long existed a single taste and monotonous structure, unable to compete with the rich product level of imported beer. Stimulated by the catfish effect of imported beer, domestic beer companies have caught up in recent years in terms of product matrix and high-end layout. At present, the overall industry transformation and upgrading is smooth, and the quantity and amount of imported beer have shown a downward trend for the first time since 2019.

2.2.2 Cost side: The price of packaging materials continues to rise, and structural upgrading is calmly responded to

Raw materials account for a large proportion of beer production costs, and the traditional low-cost and high-yield model is difficult to sustain. Beer companies have their own asset-heavy, high-turnover attributes, low-end beer also has the characteristics of small profit margins, so beer companies are accustomed to using the scale effect to increase sales to maintain profits and dilute the cost of fixed assets. Decomposing the overall cost of beer production, the cost of raw materials accounts for about 32% of the total cost. Packaging accounts for about 50% of production costs, malt and rice account for about 23%, and the total direct cost accounts for about 73%, so the beer terminal sales price is more sensitive to changes in raw material prices.

Tsingtao Beer In-depth Research Report: 100 years of green beer wind and rain, structural upgrading to ride the wind and waves 100 years of history of wind and rain, incentive to release kinetic energy 2 Industry analysis: The trend of high-end has been determined, the oligopoly pattern is becoming more and more stable 3 Brands, products, channels work together, troika to drive growth4 The cost control effect is remarkable, and the profitability is remarkable

The contribution of passive price increase profits is meager, and structural upgrading calmly copes with fluctuations. Judging from the history of the last two industry price increases, all beer companies have passively raised prices due to the price increase of raw materials. From 2016 to 2017, affected by government environmental protection law enforcement and supply-side reforms, many small and medium-sized packaging material suppliers were forced to shut down, and the shortage of supply led to soaring prices of key raw materials such as corrugated paper and packaging glass, and beer companies were forced to raise prices generally due to cost pressures; in 2018, affected by the global barley production cut, the average price of imported barley was raised by more than 20%, and the industrial price increase appeared again. The unit price and profit margin of traditional low-end beer sales are low, and the price sensitivity of the target consumer group is high, and it is difficult for beer companies to directly pass on upstream costs at the terminal price increase. Through the transformation and upgrading of product structure and the continuous investment of high-end products, liquor companies have been able to thicken the profit margin of beer products and calmly cope with upstream price fluctuations.

2.2.3 Supply side: technological innovation capacity optimization, policy tilt refers to the high-end

Technology updates and R&D investment escort the transformation of high-end. High-quality products are an indispensable part of the high-end transformation of the beer industry, beer production can be divided into malt manufacturing, brewing process and beer canning three steps, the selection of higher quality raw materials, the use of more advanced fermentation technology, can significantly improve the taste and quality of beer. At present, various beer companies have increased their research and development efforts, strengthened beer technology and product reserves, and escorted the transformation of high-end.

Taking pure draft beer as an example, at present, the pure raw products of various beer companies have gained a firm foothold in the high-end price band of 8-10 yuan, and have become the backbone of the high-end product lines. Different from the high temperature sterilization of ordinary beer, the pure raw process adopts sterile membrane to filter the bacteria, which avoids the damage of heat damage to the beer aroma and maintains the original umami taste on the basis of maintaining a long shelf life. Pure draft beer was first produced in China by Pearl River Beer, and at present, Pearl River pure raw sales account for about 40% of its overall revenue, and Qingdao pure raw sales account for about 12% of the overall sales. Pure draft beer has established a high degree of consumer awareness in China.

When the layout of high-end production capacity is carried out, the new capacity matches the demand for high-end. Since the industry's production capacity reached an inflection point in 2013, enterprises have been eliminating backward and inefficient production capacity while continuously laying out high-end production capacity to meet the increasing demand for high-end beer. Due to the consideration of flavor consistency, that is, there are differences in the taste of the same beer produced in different regions, and the development of high-end beer is often limited by production capacity. Taking Tsingtao Beer as an example, As a national single product, only 1/5 of the factories have production capacity; other ultra-high-end products such as Agut and Hongyun Dangtou can only be produced locally in Qingdao. Although the industry as a whole is under the trend of de-capacity, beer companies are still accelerating the expansion of high-end production capacity.

At present, the focus of beer enterprises has shifted to high-end orientation, and supports high-end transformation in many aspects such as product structure, cost delivery, and assessment indicators. In terms of product structure, manufacturers gradually reduce or cancel low-end product lines to expand space for product structure upgrades. For example, after Carlsberg invested in heavy beer, it took the initiative to reduce the share of the traditional low-end mountain city brand and replaced it with the mid-to-high-end Chongqing and Lebao brands. Each head beer company also takes the initiative to tilt towards high-end in terms of cost delivery, for example, Tsingtao Beer will put sales costs on its high-end products, and the low-end beer promotion costs will be greatly reduced. In addition, when setting up dealer assessment indicators, each liquor company has strengthened additional incentives and rebates for the sale of high-end products, and no longer only determines the incentive based on the total sales volume.

2.3 The oligopolistic effect is becoming more and more stable, and the high-end de-capacity is not contradictory

2.3.1 The concentration of the industry has increased significantly, and CR5 has reached 90%

The concentration of the industry is constantly increasing, but there is still a certain gap with overseas mature markets. Since the end of the 1990s, Tsingtao Beer has taken the lead in opening up nationwide mergers and acquisitions expansion, and major beer leaders have divided the market in a race, and since 2010, China's beer industry has gradually established a competitive pattern led by five major groups: China Resources, Qingdao, Budweiser, Yanjing and Carlsberg. Between 2012 and 2020, the beer industry CR5 increased from 67% to 90%, and the oligopolistic effect stabilized. At the same time, as beer production capacity entered a stable period, the overall transformation into a stock game, the competition in the industry returned to rationality.

The concentration of the overseas beer market industry is at a high level, and CR3 is generally above 80%. Due to the asset-heavy nature of the beer industry, the head enterprises rely on the scale effect to occupy a great competitive advantage, but also feed back to accelerate the process of integration of the industry. In developed markets, the UNITED STATES, Japan, Canada and other countries all have CR3s exceeding 80%,; in emerging markets, Argentina, Mexico and Colombia are more pronounced, with CR3s approaching 99%. At present, the CR3 of the domestic beer industry remains at about 60%, and it is not ruled out that there are still giants who integrate the industry in a big way in the future.

Tsingtao Beer In-depth Research Report: 100 years of green beer wind and rain, structural upgrading to ride the wind and waves 100 years of history of wind and rain, incentive to release kinetic energy 2 Industry analysis: The trend of high-end has been determined, the oligopoly pattern is becoming more and more stable 3 Brands, products, channels work together, troika to drive growth4 The cost control effect is remarkable, and the profitability is remarkable

2.3.2 Sitting on the monopoly advantage of the market, the five major groups are divided into one side

The race has come to an end, and various beer companies have established advantageous areas. In the past mergers and acquisitions, various beer companies have established advantageous markets throughout the country by acquiring strong local brands, forming a situation of division between the masses. In addition to the traditional base markets of various enterprises, China Resources Beer has pocketed the Sichuan market through the acquisition of Sichuan Lanjian Beer; Tsingtao Beer has won the Shaanxi market with the acquisition of Shaanxi Hansi Beer; Budweiser has acquired Fujian Xuejin Beer with huge funds to help it establish its advantages in South China; Carlsberg has acquired Xinjiang, Wusu, and Chongqing Beer, establishing a relatively strong influence in the western region; and Yanjing Beer has occupied an absolute market dominant position in Guangxi after acquiring Guangxi Liquan Beer.

2.3.3 High-end into the main theme, ton price upward space is large

The high-end process of the industry is rapid, and the proportion of high-end products continues to increase. With the production capacity of the beer industry peaking and gradually declining, it has become a consensus in the industry to increase profit margins through product structure upgrades. In terms of sales structure, the current domestic high-end/mid-end/low-end beer sales account for about 20%/33%/47%. The proportion of domestic low-end beer sales has dropped from 59% in 2012 to 32% in 2020, while the proportion of combined sales of mid-end and high-end has increased from 41% to 68%, and the overall product structure transformation of the industry is steadily progressing.

Ton prices maintain an upward trend, and there is still room for a sharp rise in foreign countries. The compound growth rate of the tonnage price of major domestic beer merchants in the past six years has remained between 2% and 5%, and has reached the price range of 2800-4300 yuan, and the current average tonnage price of the industry is about 3500 yuan. Among them, Chongqing Beer has upgraded its efficient product structure, and the ton price is relatively high; China Resources Beer is dragging down the high-end transformation due to its huge low-end beer sales, and the ton price is relatively the lowest. In the Asia-Pacific region, the tonnage price of foreign beer giants has been in the range of 4500-8000 yuan, with the advancement of the overall industry high-end process, it is expected that the domestic beer tonnage price still has huge growth potential.

Tsingtao Beer In-depth Research Report: 100 years of green beer wind and rain, structural upgrading to ride the wind and waves 100 years of history of wind and rain, incentive to release kinetic energy 2 Industry analysis: The trend of high-end has been determined, the oligopoly pattern is becoming more and more stable 3 Brands, products, channels work together, troika to drive growth4 The cost control effect is remarkable, and the profitability is remarkable

With the trend of consumption upgrading and the initiative of various liquor companies to promote product structure upgrading, it is expected that the ton price center of beer in all grades has moved upward. Among them, the volume and price of high-end beer are rising together, and it is expected that the average annual sales volume will increase by about 7% in the next three years, the tonnage price will increase by about 2.3%, and the compound growth rate of revenue will be about 9.5%; the mid-end beer will continue to expand, and the average annual sales volume is expected to increase by 4.8% in the next three years, the ton price increase by about 2%, and the compound growth rate of revenue by about 6.8%; the volume of low-end beer is expected to decline steadily, and the average annual sales volume is expected to decline by 3.9% in the next three years, the ton price increase by about 0.7%, and the compound growth rate of revenue by about -3.2%. Product structure upgrading has become a major trend in the industry, and there is still more than 30% room for growth in high-end beer revenue in the next three years.

The brand strategy is streamlined and concentrated, and the product matrix is innovative. As high-end has become the consensus of the industry, major brewers have changed in brand strategy and product matrix. In terms of brand strategy, due to the large-scale acquisition of local brands in the past nationwide expansion process, the bloated brand system of enterprises, the dispersion of marketing priorities and other issues, the adjustment of brand strategies of various enterprises has shown the characteristics of simplification and centralization. In terms of product matrix, under the general trend of consumption upgrading, consumer demand for personalized high-end beer continues to emerge, and it is difficult to reproduce the grand situation of a single large single product selling well in the country in the past, so major brewers continue to update their high-end product lines to meet the differentiated needs of consumers, such as China Resources launched high-end beers such as Facebook Series and Mars Green, and purchased Heineken China in 2018 to further enrich its high-end product matrix.

The domestic canning rate has maintained rapid growth, and there is still a big gap with the foreign level. The canning rate of the domestic beer industry increased from 15% in 2004 to 28% in 2019, maintaining an average annual growth rate of more than double digits in the past five years. The main benefits of the increase in canning rate are: 1) the rapid development of non-spot drink channels such as online e-commerce and offline convenience stores in recent years; 2) the high gross profit margin of canning, and major liquor companies have taken the initiative to continue to increase canning capacity; 3) traditional circulation channels have been seriously affected by the epidemic, and the proportion of circulation channels represented by online e-commerce in 2020 has increased significantly, and the demand for canned beer has increased significantly. From the perspective of the foreign mainstream beer market, the canning rate in the United Kingdom and the United States is close to 70%, the canning rate in Japan is close to 90%, and the global average canning rate is about 50%; at present, with the domestic canning rate of less than 30%, there is still a lot of room for improvement.

Tsingtao Beer In-depth Research Report: 100 years of green beer wind and rain, structural upgrading to ride the wind and waves 100 years of history of wind and rain, incentive to release kinetic energy 2 Industry analysis: The trend of high-end has been determined, the oligopoly pattern is becoming more and more stable 3 Brands, products, channels work together, troika to drive growth4 The cost control effect is remarkable, and the profitability is remarkable

<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="54">3 Brands, products, and channels are working together, and the troika is driving growth</h1>

3.1 Brand end: a century of accumulation of beer faucet, brand building in four in one

3.1.1 The brand has been passed down for more than 100 years and has a good reputation at home and abroad

The company's brand has a history of 118 years, and the brand advantage is unique. The predecessor of the company was german beer Qingdao Joint Stock Company, which was jointly established in Qingdao in 1903 by German and British businessmen, and then Japan won the Battle of Qingdao to take over Tsingtao Beer until the founding of New China in 1949 and nationalized. Since its inception, Tsingtao Beer has selected high-quality Laoshan mineral water and adhered to the strict German brewing process, won many awards at home and abroad in a hundred years, and gradually developed from a well-known national brand to an overseas national business card, behind its excellent beer quality and heavy brand heritage are indispensable. At a time when the beer industry is gradually transforming from channel-driven to brand-oriented, the strong brand power accumulated by Tsingtao Beer over the past century occupies a unique competitive advantage.

High-quality craftsmanship and excellent taste cast the hard strength of Qingdao brand. On the basis of inheriting the traditional German brewing process, Tsingtao Beer uses the brewing process of the modern one-tank method to reduce the loss of carbon dioxide while increasing the delicacy of the wine foam; using a unique low temperature long-term storage technology, compared with the fermentation time of 2-3 weeks of traditional industrial beer, Tsingtao Beer's post-ripening of about six weeks, although the cost is higher, it also brings higher fermentation degree, more mature and stable flavor, and its hop and malt aroma is also more prominent. The well-known Brand of Qingdao complements the Company's consistently high standards for beer brewing.

3.1.2 Consumer-centric, brand promotion is effective

With the profound domestic product heritage as the guideline, the innovative young marketing as the purpose, the century-old national tide is just in time. As a drink loved by young people, whether beer can be favored by young consumer groups will be the top priority of brand promotion. The company unswervingly opens the road of young and fashionable brand marketing, perfectly integrates the brand's historical heritage with the innovative young trend, and returns to the old age of the century-old national brand. In 2019, the company launched the classic 1903 retro national tide packaging, which not only reproduced the classic trademark of the Tsingtao Beer hot newspaper at the beginning of the last century on the product packaging, but also added modern fashion elements to the bottle design, highlighting the brand image of Tsingtao Beer that has been bravely standing at the head of the "tide" for a hundred years, and stimulating consumer nostalgia and national feelings. In 2018, the company and Tmall jointly launched the Night Owl series of beer, through the release of the elaborate "Night Owl Song" and MV, cooperation with well-known rapper ICE and other marketing methods, combined with the image of the night owl that stimulates the emotional resonance of young people, becoming a classic case of the company's youthful marketing.

Tsingtao Beer In-depth Research Report: 100 years of green beer wind and rain, structural upgrading to ride the wind and waves 100 years of history of wind and rain, incentive to release kinetic energy 2 Industry analysis: The trend of high-end has been determined, the oligopoly pattern is becoming more and more stable 3 Brands, products, channels work together, troika to drive growth4 The cost control effect is remarkable, and the profitability is remarkable

Streamline the brand system, marketing is targeted. In the process of nationwide expansion and mergers and acquisitions in the past ten years, the company has incorporated strong local brands from major regions into its own brand system, making great contributions to the company's sales increase. However, in the current situation that the logic of increasing the volume of the beer industry has failed and the profit margin of low-end beer is meager, it has become the consensus of the industry to concentrate marketing resources to develop high-end products. The company continues to slim down the brand system, and gradually withdraws regional brands (Hans, Shanshui, etc.) from the core brand strategy, providing brand-side support for the company to achieve product structure optimization and upgrading in the future.

The four-in-one increase the thickness of marketing, and the three dimensions make efforts to broaden the breadth of publicity. The company's four-in-one brand promotion model means to be consumer-centric, and enhance the company's close connection with consumers in brand promotion through the "four-in-one" marketing method of brand communication, product sales, consumer interaction and fan interaction. While changing the inefficient situation of traditional marketing with only unilateral output from the company, it also gives consumers an immersive consumer experience. To this end, the company vigorously promotes the construction of various consumer interaction platforms, online level companies in the vibrato, Weibo and other mainstream platforms have more than 400,000 fans; offline level companies continue to hold various activities, such as the annual Qingdao International Beer Festival has been held for 30 sessions, Qingdao Beer Museum has an average annual reception of more than 1.2 million people, Qingdao 1903 bars currently have more than 200 in the country, the company's medium-term goal is 500-800, the long-term goal is to operate more than 1,000 1903 bars nationwide. In terms of traditional marketing, the company has made efforts to build its brand from the three dimensions of "sports events, music marketing, and IP co-branding", and invested resources from multiple angles to achieve a stable output of brand value.

Under the background of fee reduction, the cost of advertising and publicity has not decreased, and the brand value is increasing day by day. Since 2017, the company has begun to reduce fees and improve efficiency, and sales expenses have dropped from 6 billion yuan in 2016 to 5.1 billion yuan in 2019, with a three-year compound decline rate of 5.4%. However, the optimization of sales expenses does not affect the company's advertising expenses, and the publicity expenditure increased from 740 million yuan in 2016 to 960 million yuan in 2019, of which 2018 and 2019 increased by 19% and 11% respectively year-on-year, and the publicity expenditure affected by the epidemic in 2020 fell by 5% year-on-year. The proportion of publicity fees increased from 12% in 2016 to 18% in 2020, and continuous publicity expenses helped the company achieve a steady increase in brand value. Tsingtao Beer's brand value in 2020 is as high as 179.3 billion yuan, and since 2003, the company's brand value has always ranked first in China's beer industry.

Tsingtao Beer In-depth Research Report: 100 years of green beer wind and rain, structural upgrading to ride the wind and waves 100 years of history of wind and rain, incentive to release kinetic energy 2 Industry analysis: The trend of high-end has been determined, the oligopoly pattern is becoming more and more stable 3 Brands, products, channels work together, troika to drive growth4 The cost control effect is remarkable, and the profitability is remarkable

3.2 Product side: The product matrix has significant advantages, and structural upgrading drives growth

3.2.1 The brand portfolio is clearly positioned and the product reserve is complete and rich

The main brand Qingdao + the second brand Laoshan, the brand portfolio positioning is clear. Since 2016, Tsingtao Beer has streamlined its brand portfolio and focused on the "1+1" brand strategy, that is, Tsingtao Beer as a national main brand, mainly covering mid-end and high-end products; Laoshan Beer as the second national brand, mainly covering the low-end beer series for the public; at the same time, the company has proposed a "1+1+N" product strategy for the main brand of Qingdao, that is, taking the pure raw + classic two fist series as the main products, driving the common development of other new high-end products such as August, Pearson, and whole wheat white beer. For the Laoshan brand, the company has made efforts to cultivate large products. The company's product matrix is complete and rich, and there are strong product layouts for different price bands.

3.2.2 High-end beer performed well, and the overall tonnage price increased steadily

The proportion of high-end products continues to expand, the growth rate of high-end is better than the growth rate of the main brand, and the transformation of high-end has achieved initial results. Since the implementation of the high-end transformation in 2012, the company has continuously accelerated the upgrading process to high-value-added products represented by listening and craft beer. Affected by the epidemic, in the first half of 2020, high-end products still performed well in the first half of 2020, when the shortage of high-end catering and night shows and other spot-to-drink channels was serious. High-end beer sales increased from 1.66 million tons to 1.79 million tons between 2014 and 2020, and the CAGR of high-end sales in the past three years was 3.3%, and its proportion of overall sales also rose from 18% to 23%, of which ultra-high-end products (more than 12 yuan) accounted for about 5% of total sales in 2020. Since 2013, the growth rate of the company's high-end products has always been higher than the growth rate of the main brand; the proportion of high-end beer in the sales volume of the main brand beer has also increased rapidly from 28% in 2010 to 46% in 2020, and the company's high-end transformation is steadily progressing.

The proportion of mid-end products has declined slightly, the proportion of low-end products has remained stable, and there is still room for product structure upgrading. From the perspective of sales structure, the proportion of mid-range products (5-8 yuan) has gradually declined, from 31% in 2014 to 27% in 2020. The proportion of low-end products (2-5 yuan) remained stable, from 51% in 2014 to 50% in 2020. From the perspective of the target consumer group, the consumers in the 5-8 yuan price band targeted by the mid-range products have higher requirements for beer quality, and their purchasing power is better than that of the low-end price band consumers who are very price sensitive. In the process of promoting high-end beer, a large number of potential high-end beer consumers are upgraded and transformed from the original mid-range beer target group, and the proportion of mid-end products affected by high-end beer has declined. On the other hand, for low-end beer, which accounts for more than half of the total, the company adopts passive price increase methods such as changing packaging and replacing bottles with listening, and actively promotes the upgrading of low-end product structure.

Tsingtao Beer In-depth Research Report: 100 years of green beer wind and rain, structural upgrading to ride the wind and waves 100 years of history of wind and rain, incentive to release kinetic energy 2 Industry analysis: The trend of high-end has been determined, the oligopoly pattern is becoming more and more stable 3 Brands, products, channels work together, troika to drive growth4 The cost control effect is remarkable, and the profitability is remarkable

The proportion of mid-to-high-end revenue continued to rise, and the revenue contribution has exceeded 60%. The company's main brands include products positioned in the mid-range and above, while other brands include local brands such as Laoshan that are positioned at the low end. In 2020, the main brand achieved revenue of 17.25 billion yuan, down 1% year-on-year, with a three-year compound growth rate of 3%; other brands achieved revenue of 10.09 billion yuan in the same period, down 1% year-on-year. From the perspective of the overall revenue structure, the main brand is almost the same as other brands in terms of sales, and the contribution of the main brand to revenue in 2020 is 70% higher than that of other brands, showing that the profitability of the main brand based on the middle and high end is significantly stronger than that of other brands mainly at the low end, and the optimization of the product structure has achieved results.

The overall tonnage price is stable and rising, and the main brand ton price and gross profit margin are dominant. Since the establishment of the "1+1" dual-brand focus strategy in 2017, the company has continuously optimized its product structure and gradually replaced other low-end brands with high-end Qingdao brands. The company's overall tonnage price increased from 3259 yuan in 2015 to 3550 yuan in 2020, with a five-year compound growth rate of 2.5%; the main brand ton price reached 4447 yuan in 2020, far exceeding the industry's average tonnage price level and similar to Budweiser Asia Pacific ton price. In terms of gross margin, the gross profit margin of the main brand in 2020 was 48%, which was 21% higher than the gross profit margin of other brands. In the future, with the company promoting the upgrading of product structure, it is expected that the overall gross profit rate will remain upward as the proportion of the main brand increases.

The gross profit margin level remained basically stable, and the profitability of the product was stable. From 2014 to 2015, affected by the industry's production cuts, the gross profit margin showed a downward trend; the reason for the obvious increase in gross profit margin in 2016 was the company's acquisition of Shanghai Investment Company, and the transaction model changed from an outsourcing model to an internal transaction, which led to a sharp decline in operating costs; in 2018, due to the general increase in the price of upstream raw materials, the company's gross profit margin declined slightly. The company began to raise prices on a large scale in 2018, and gross margin rose to 39% in 2019. In 2020, affected by the epidemic, while the marketing expenses related to circulation channels were reduced, the company's high-end beer still maintained a high growth rate, driving the gross interest rate to 40.4% in 2020.

Tsingtao Beer In-depth Research Report: 100 years of green beer wind and rain, structural upgrading to ride the wind and waves 100 years of history of wind and rain, incentive to release kinetic energy 2 Industry analysis: The trend of high-end has been determined, the oligopoly pattern is becoming more and more stable 3 Brands, products, channels work together, troika to drive growth4 The cost control effect is remarkable, and the profitability is remarkable

3.2.3 The product structure upgrade path is clear, and the increase in the canning rate drives the high profit increase

The product structure upgrade will become the main driving force for the company's future performance growth. At present, the industry has entered the era of stock, and under the current situation that the overall sales volume is difficult to have a large incremental space, the future growth of the profit side will depend on the upgrading of the stock product. In the future, the company will promote the upgrading of the overall product structure from three aspects: high-end expansion, low-end upgrading and canning rate improvement:

The expansion of high-end beer is steady and steady

Product, cost, production capacity at the three ends of the force, the future of high-end volume can be expected: 1) product side: the company continues to launch new products to improve the high-end product matrix, to meet the increasingly differentiated and personalized needs of consumers, in 2020 a total of 22 new products, reserve products 33 models; 2) cost side: strengthen the cost tilt of high-end products, it is expected that about 90% of marketing, incentives and other related expenses will be put into high-end beer; channels to strengthen the assessment of dealers' high-end sales, with targeted rebates to encourage dealers to sell high-end products. 3) Capacity end: continue to increase high-end production capacity to match the increasing demand for high-end beer from consumers, and the company's new production capacity in the later period is mainly based on high-end production capacity. It is expected that in 2021, the company's high-end product sales growth rate will exceed 10%, and the sales growth rate of main products will reach 8%.

Tsingtao Beer In-depth Research Report: 100 years of green beer wind and rain, structural upgrading to ride the wind and waves 100 years of history of wind and rain, incentive to release kinetic energy 2 Industry analysis: The trend of high-end has been determined, the oligopoly pattern is becoming more and more stable 3 Brands, products, channels work together, troika to drive growth4 The cost control effect is remarkable, and the profitability is remarkable

The proportion of high-end continues to increase to boost the overall tonnage price. At present, the company's high-end beer tonnage price represented by August and Classic 1903 has risen to about 7000-8000 yuan, which is almost the same as the ton price of international beer giants such as Budweiser and Carlsberg in overseas mature markets, but the company is dragged down by huge low-end beer sales, and the overall tonnage price is only about 3500 yuan. At present, the company's tonnage price level is in the third position of the domestic beer industry, compared with the international beer giant Asia-Pacific region, there is still about 30% room for improvement in ton price. According to the sensitivity analysis of tonnage prices to attributable net profit, under other conditions remaining unchanged, if the overall tonnage price increases by 4% and sales volume increases by 2%, the company's net profit attributable to the mother increases by 25% to about 2.8 billion yuan; if the overall tonnage price rises to the level of 4500 yuan for international giants, the company's net profit attributable to the mother is expected to double to about 5 billion yuan.

The increase in the canning rate has driven a high profit increase

The gross profit margin of the listening product is significantly better than that of the bottle, and the canning rate has become a key factor in the profit improvement of beer enterprises. From the cost side, the cost of a single can is about 0.5 yuan, and the cost of a single glass bottle is about 1 yuan, but after 7-8 times of recycling, there is no difference in the cost of glass bottles and cans. However, on the sales side: 1) canned pricing is higher: the price of the first-level distributor listening to the beer is about 20% higher than the bottle, and the price difference between the two is higher in the convenience store and other terminals, about 30%; and the canned products in the circulation channel can be taken apart and sold by listening, which is nearly 15% higher than the price of bottled beer sold by box; 2) the bottled income is relatively lower: the bottled beer needs to deduct the price of the glass bottle itself in the price given to the distributor; 3) the canned transportation cost is lower: the weight of the listening beer is lighter. Shipping is less expensive and easy to store; 4,000 cases of glass bottle beer weigh the same as 7,000 cases. Combining various factors, the gross profit margin of listening beer is about 15%-20% higher than that of bottled beer, and the gross profit margin of glass bottle beer in the industry is currently about 35%, while the gross profit margin of canned beer is close to 50%.

Tsingtao Beer In-depth Research Report: 100 years of green beer wind and rain, structural upgrading to ride the wind and waves 100 years of history of wind and rain, incentive to release kinetic energy 2 Industry analysis: The trend of high-end has been determined, the oligopoly pattern is becoming more and more stable 3 Brands, products, channels work together, troika to drive growth4 The cost control effect is remarkable, and the profitability is remarkable

The company's canning layout time is early, and the first-mover advantage is obvious. The company's listening wine layout began as early as 2014, the main planning can be divided into three directions: 1) listening and packaging expansion: the traditional listening wine capacity is 330ml, compared with the traditional bottled wine 500ml capacity is slightly smaller, the company's canning center of gravity shifts to 500ml large bottles of listening beer, the profit contribution is higher; 2) the full product line coverage: the company's current full product line has realized the listing of similar products such as listening wine and bottled wine; 3) increased canning capacity: the company's later newly built 1 million tons of production capacity, canning accounted for more than 70%. The company's canning layout time is significantly earlier than the main competitors, in recent years the company has seized the opportunity of the rapid development of convenience stores and night stores, and has seized a large number of market shares in KA and circulation channels.

The output of listening products has risen steadily, and the profit release brought by canning can be expected. Under the premise of a 3.7% decline in the company's overall sales in 2020, the output of listening beer was about 2 million tons, an increase of 5.7% year-on-year, and the company's current canning rate is about 25%, which is at the industry average. With the continuous replenishment of the company's canning capacity, the company proposed in 2019 to increase the canning rate by about 5% per year in the future and increase to about 50% within 5 years, providing impetus for the continuous release of the company's profits.

3.3 Channel side: the channel strategy is coarse and detailed, and the market focuses on "one vertical and one horizontal"

3.3.1 Channel strategy: "large customer + micro operation", according to local conditions to layout the whole country

The company's spot drinking channels account for about 60%, which is easy to upgrade the product structure. In the spot drink channel, the catering channel is about 50%, the night market channel such as bars is about 10%, and the non-spot drink channel, THE KA and the convenience terminal account for about 20% each. Compared with the industry, the proportion of the company's spot drink channels is higher than that of China Resources Beer 50% and the industry average of 55%. The higher mark-up rate of beer products in the spot drinking channel and the lower price sensitivity of consumers are more conducive to the implementation of the company's product structure optimization.

Tsingtao Beer In-depth Research Report: 100 years of green beer wind and rain, structural upgrading to ride the wind and waves 100 years of history of wind and rain, incentive to release kinetic energy 2 Industry analysis: The trend of high-end has been determined, the oligopoly pattern is becoming more and more stable 3 Brands, products, channels work together, troika to drive growth4 The cost control effect is remarkable, and the profitability is remarkable

s According to different market shares, according to the situation to guide the development of channel strategies. According to its own brand share and distributor capabilities in different markets, the company's channel model can be divided into three types: "intensive", "hybrid" and "exclusive" according to the market maturity from high to low. In mature markets with a market share of more than 60%, the ability of a single large customer is not enough to cover the entire market demand, and the company mostly adopts the in-depth distribution model to cooperate with many distributors, including large customers, that is, the "intensive" channel model. In a medium-competitive market with a market share of 30%-60%, the company adopts a "hybrid" channel model, and the company interferes less with distributors than in mature markets, for example, the number of distribution terminals in a single second batch will be more than 50%. For the initial market with a market share of less than 30%, the company adopts an "exclusive" channel model to increase the market share of products with the help of its own marketing resources and regional advantages.

"Large customer + micro operation" is coarse and detailed, and the fee reduction and control of the terminal are improved at the same time. The large customer model refers to the company's active selection and cultivation of customers in the process of marketing to grow into large customers in a specific area, with the help of large customers in the capital, manpower and social relations and other local resource advantages, reduce the company's sales staff and sales expenses. Micro operation is the company through the office to the front-line sales sales staff to carry out target action guidance and performance traceability, such as the regional office requires the precinct industry representative to visit the sales terminal regularly and complete the feedback assessment, effectively strengthen the company's control of the channel. Since 2008, the company officially established the "large customer + micro operation" model and has been used so far, organically combining the traditional large commercial system with the fine operation at the micro level, helping the company to reduce channel costs in channel operation while enhancing channel control and forming a competitive advantage.

Attach importance to channel innovation and build three-dimensional channels. While focusing on traditional channels, the company has long attached importance to various emerging channels emerging in the development of the Internet and actively laid out them. As early as 2014, the company took the lead in opening official flagship stores on third-party platforms such as Taobao Jingdong, and in the same year, the "Tsingtao Beer Official Mall" was launched on the WeChat mall, becoming the first Chinese beer company to lay out the mobile shopping field. In 2015, the company launched the mobile terminal "Qingdao Quick Purchase" APP, established the first O2O platform in the beer industry, and currently the Green Beer Quick Purchase APP has covered more than 40 cities across the country. The company has taken the lead in the industry to build an e-commerce channel system of "online supermarket + official flagship store + authorized distribution franchise store + WeChat mall", and built a three-dimensional sales platform of "e-commerce + store + factory direct sales".

Tsingtao Beer In-depth Research Report: 100 years of green beer wind and rain, structural upgrading to ride the wind and waves 100 years of history of wind and rain, incentive to release kinetic energy 2 Industry analysis: The trend of high-end has been determined, the oligopoly pattern is becoming more and more stable 3 Brands, products, channels work together, troika to drive growth4 The cost control effect is remarkable, and the profitability is remarkable

Dealer assessment is refined, and channel costs are accurately delivered. Since 2017, the company has begun to reform the assessment mechanism for high-end upgrades, which is mainly reflected in 1) sales assessment segmentation: from the previous assessment of total sales to the assessment of low-end, mid-end, high-end and ultra-high-end four grades; 2) the cost of accurate delivery: gradually cancel the cost support for low-end products, and strengthen the cost tilt of high-end products, such as increasing the rebate for high-end products above pure life. On the other hand, the company has gradually streamlined the number of dealers, and the number of dealers in 2020 fell by 7% year-on-year. In 2020, the sales volume of individual dealers increased by 5% year-on-year, and the operational efficiency of distributors was further optimized.

3.3.2 Market strategy: the base market escort, one vertical and one horizontal emerges sharply

Focus on market strategies and focus on advantageous areas. With the competitive landscape of the beer industry tending to be stable, the past staking + multi-point flowering national expansion strategy is no longer suitable for the current situation, and the industry pursues to turn from sales to profit. Since 2015, the company has implemented a strategy of focusing on regional markets and focusing on the development of traditional advantageous areas. Through the construction of the coastal strategic belt along the Yellow River, we will build a strategic market layout of "one vertical and one horizontal". The yellow strategic belt mainly includes the traditional strong northern market of Gansu, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Hebei, while the coastal strategic belt includes the coastal market of the long-term layout of the company in East China, South China and Southeast China. In 2018, the company proposed to vigorously develop the urban base market circle, relying on the core Shandong base market, and driving the growth of the surrounding market around Shandong with point and surface radiation. Under the situation that there is little incremental space left in the industry, the company adjusts the market center of gravity in a timely manner, concentrates resources on deep ploughing channels and traditional advantageous areas with superior market share, and takes the lead in the current beer market competition that enters the stock game.

Do the deep Shandong base market circle

As the company's core base market, Shandong region contributes more than half of its revenue and sales. Shandong is the largest beer producing province in China, with beer production of 4.84 million tons in 2019, accounting for 13% of the country's beer production. In 2020, the company achieved beer sales of 5.14 million tons in Shandong, with revenue of 18.3 billion yuan, accounting for 56% and 66% of the company's overall sales and revenue, respectively. The company has been deeply cultivating shandong for many years, and its market share has exceeded 70%, occupying an absolute dominant position in the province.

Tsingtao Beer In-depth Research Report: 100 years of green beer wind and rain, structural upgrading to ride the wind and waves 100 years of history of wind and rain, incentive to release kinetic energy 2 Industry analysis: The trend of high-end has been determined, the oligopoly pattern is becoming more and more stable 3 Brands, products, channels work together, troika to drive growth4 The cost control effect is remarkable, and the profitability is remarkable

Outstanding profitability, high-end process leading. In 2020, the ton price in Shandong was 3505 yuan / ton, up 1% year-on-year, and all higher than the ton price of other regions; the gross profit margin was 35.2%, slightly higher than the company's gross profit level in other regions. In terms of profitability, Shandong achieved a net profit of 1.3 billion yuan in 2020, contributing 59.6% of the net profit, and its profitability far exceeded that of other regions. In terms of product structure, high-end beer in Shandong accounts for about 5%, and high-end products account for about 33% of the overall sales. With the company strengthening the optimization and upgrading of the product structure in the future, it is expected that the profitability of Shandong will continue to rise.

As a high-quality moat for green beer, Shandong base market has the following core competitive advantages: 1) cost end: low transportation costs and obvious cost advantages. Beer sales radius is small, localized factories can effectively reduce high transportation costs; 2) brand end: local consumers have high loyalty to Qingdao brands, foreign brands are difficult to compete with; 3) channel end: green beer deep ploughing base The market has been in the market for decades, which can effectively control the placement of distributors and sales expenses. The sales expense ratio in Shandong has continued to decline since 2017, but the revenue has continued to grow; 4) Revenue side: The Shandong base, as a profit pool market, not only contributes more profits, but also is easy to raise prices. Price increases are generally implemented in the base market first, and then gradually radiate to surrounding provinces and cities. Since 2018 years, the price of green beer has been raised twice in Shandong, and the price of low-end products has increased by nearly 20%. As the company continues to implement the strategy of deepening the market circle of Shandong base, it is expected that the Shandong market will provide greater support for the company's high-end transformation and product structure upgrading in the future.

Strengthen the "along the yellow" strategic belt

The company has traditional advantages in North China and its market share is leading overall. The "Along the Yellow River" market belt mainly includes Gansu, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Hebei and other cities in the Yellow River Basin, the company has been laid out in North China for many years, and has a deep foundation in terms of production capacity construction and channel control. In 2019, beer production in North China reached 3.8 million tons, down 3% year-on-year, and its proportion of national beer production has been stable at about 10%. The company ranks first in the market share of major cities in North China, with a market share of about 80% and 55% in Shaanxi and Shanxi respectively.

Tsingtao Beer In-depth Research Report: 100 years of green beer wind and rain, structural upgrading to ride the wind and waves 100 years of history of wind and rain, incentive to release kinetic energy 2 Industry analysis: The trend of high-end has been determined, the oligopoly pattern is becoming more and more stable 3 Brands, products, channels work together, troika to drive growth4 The cost control effect is remarkable, and the profitability is remarkable

Revenue and sales ranked second, and there is still broad room for optimization of product structure. North China achieved revenue of 6.5 billion yuan in 2020, accounting for 24% of the company's total revenue, an increase of 4pp year-on-year, with a compound growth rate of 11% from 2016 to 2020; achieved a net profit of 740 million yuan, contributing a net profit increase of 5pp to 34% year-on-year. With the company's market strategy focusing on the Huangcheng urban agglomeration, North China is expected to transform from a dominant market to a profit pool market in the future. From the perspective of sales structure, North China achieved sales of 1.89 million tons in 2020, accounting for 20% of total sales, with a compound growth rate of about 10% in 2016-2020; the rapid increase in sales in North China was mainly supported by low-end beer, and low-end brands accounted for about 80%. If the company successfully replicates the experience of transformation and upgrading of low-end products in the Shandong market along the Yellow Strategy, then under the high sales base of the company along the Yellow Area, it is expected that the smooth upgrading of the product structure in the North China market will release a lot of profit elasticity for the company.

Strengthen the penetration of the northeast market, take the initiative to attack instead of defending. In recent years, China Resources Beer has strengthened the penetration and erosion of the Shandong market, and the share of China Resources Beer in Shandong has increased from 10% to about 20%. As the core hinterland of China Resources Beer, the northeast market share of China Resources Beer exceeds 50% in the three provinces of Heijiliao. In the face of the attack of China Resources, the company accelerated its efforts in the northeast market, the growth rate in the northeast region in the past two years is about 15%-20%, and in 2020, the company's sales volume in the three northeastern provinces will be about 700,000-800,000 tons, accounting for about 10% of the overall sales.

Expand the "coastal" strategic belt

The consumption of beer in coastal urban agglomerations is large, and major brands are competing for the lead. The company's coastal strategic belt includes Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Suwan, with Shanghai as the core, and Fujian and Guangdong along the coast. The five coastal provinces produced a total of 10.3 million tons of beer in 2019, accounting for 27% of the national output. The high per capita income of consumers in coastal cities is very conducive to the promotion of high-end processes by leading enterprises, so the competition between major liquor companies in East China is fierce. In terms of market structure, the company has an absolute advantage in Shanghai with a market share of 71%, and its market share in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is also in the forefront, but the gap with other brands is small. China Resources Beer accounts for more than 50% of the market in Anhui and Jiangsu, while Fujian is the core hinterland of Budweiser Beer, with a market share of about 58%.

Tsingtao Beer In-depth Research Report: 100 years of green beer wind and rain, structural upgrading to ride the wind and waves 100 years of history of wind and rain, incentive to release kinetic energy 2 Industry analysis: The trend of high-end has been determined, the oligopoly pattern is becoming more and more stable 3 Brands, products, channels work together, troika to drive growth4 The cost control effect is remarkable, and the profitability is remarkable

The product structure upgrade is smooth, and the cost reduction and profitability go hand in hand. The company is mainly based on high-end products in the coastal market, and low-end beer has gradually withdrawn from the coastal market belt. Since the implementation of fee reductions in 2018, the sales expense ratio of South China/East China/Southeast Region has dropped from 28%/24%/22% in 2017 to 16%/18%17% in 2020, and the overall fee reduction of the three coastal regions in two years is about 35%, but there is still about 5% of the decline compared with the average sales expense rate of about 12% in North China. From the perspective of profitability, south China region has turned a loss into a profit since 2018 and achieved a net profit of 110 million yuan in 2020; East China and Southeast China region in 2020, although still in loss, but the amount has narrowed significantly, and the net loss has decreased significantly by 91% and 95% respectively compared with last year. As the company focuses on the coastal market belt strategy, coupled with the good product structure in the coastal areas that are mainly medium and high-end, it is expected that the company's profit level in the coastal market will have a significant upside in the future.

<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="114" >4 The cost control effect is remarkable, and the profitability is remarkable</h1>

The sales expense reduction is obvious, and the management expense ratio remains low. The company's sales expense ratio was 18% in 2020, down about 4% since the start of the fee reduction in 2017, and the company's control over selling expenses has been effective. In terms of industry comparison, the company's sales expense ratio in 2020 is lower than that of China Resources and Budweiser, which are also national beer leaders, but it is much higher than the level of regional giants heavy beer 11% and swallow beer 13%, and the company's sales expenses still have room for improvement. In terms of management expenses, major liquor companies, including companies, are at a relatively low level, while China Resources Beer has high management expenses due to the aggressive closure strategy in recent years. The company has steadily cracked down on the cost reduction of the factory, and the management expense ratio has basically remained stable at about 6%.

In the horizontal comparison of the industry, the company's ROE maintains a leading position. RoE reflects the efficiency with which a company operates its own funds, as well as its ability to manage assets, financial controls, and make profits. Selecting four enterprises in the industry: China Beer, Budweiser Asia Pacific, Yanjing Beer, and Pearl River Beer as a comparison, the company's return on net assets has increased year by year since 2016, and has long been in the second position in the industry, second only to Chongqing Beer after the completion of the closure of the factory and the reduction of fees. In 2020, the company's ROE continued to rise under the impact of the epidemic, and its profitability was very stable.

Tsingtao Beer In-depth Research Report: 100 years of green beer wind and rain, structural upgrading to ride the wind and waves 100 years of history of wind and rain, incentive to release kinetic energy 2 Industry analysis: The trend of high-end has been determined, the oligopoly pattern is becoming more and more stable 3 Brands, products, channels work together, troika to drive growth4 The cost control effect is remarkable, and the profitability is remarkable

A steady increase in net selling margin led to ROE growth. From the perspective of split ROE, the company's ROE improvement is mainly driven by the increase in net profit margin from sales, the slow decline in total asset turnover, and the stable increase in equity multipliers. The increase in net profit margin of sales mainly benefits from: 1) the company's high-end product structure has been upgraded smoothly, and the net profit contribution of the main brand beer is significantly better than that of low-end beer; 2) the company's cost control has highlighted the effectiveness, controlling sales expenses since 2017, and at the same time, since 2018, the company has gradually shut down inefficient production capacity, and various expenses have decreased significantly, and the operating efficiency has continued to improve.

(This article is for informational purposes only and does not represent any of our investment advice.) For usage information, see the original report. )

Source of the featured report: [Future Think Tank official website].

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