1. Impressions of the week
Since the opening of the market after the holiday, the new and old hot spots in the Chinese herbal medicine market have continued. The price of hot varieties is sensitive and changeable, the market changes quickly and the amplitude is large, and the market has shown signs of "overheating" this week, and businesses are generally blindly following the trend.
This week, the market rose more than it fell, and the overall performance was a situation of more gains and less losses. Compared with the rapid price rise in the first half of 2023, most of the retail investors are pharmaceutical companies in the industry, which are relatively rational and the price increase is also supported by logical concepts, while the current price rise is more due to the follow-up of non-industry funds, which is very blind, mostly fast-in and fast-out, and short-term speculation. Therefore, many varieties of price increases this year are non-theme and illogical rises. The hot market came to an abrupt end in July last year, will it repeat the same mistakes this year?
The biggest theme of this week should be "rebound": the varieties whose prices have fallen too sharply in the early stage will rebound strongly, and the prices that are not high or relatively low, and the merchants actively buy the bottom to lead to a rebound. However, while paying attention to the price rise of varieties, merchants should also pay attention to the data changes in trading volume, and do not be blinded by surface price fluctuations. After all, in the current market, production has kept up with or even exceeded demand, inventories have accumulated, and the risk of bubbles has increased.
Second, the keyword of the week
1. Capital participation rebounds strongly and buys the bottom at low prices.
2. Short-term speculation, following the trend of speculation, rising more and falling less.
Other keywords include insufficient actual demand, rich second-generation participation, market polarization, etc.
3. This week's market rise and fall list
3.1 Analysis of rising symbols
Table 1: Hot varieties of market price increases this week (unit: yuan/kg)
This week's 10 varieties rose, with an increase of more than 10% of the varieties of 5, accounting for 50%, with a maximum increase of 40%, except for gardenia and He Shou Wu as old hot spots, the remaining 8 are new hot spots.
New hot spots have emerged one after another, and the market has not diminished, driving speculation to rise step by step.
Shayuanzi: In 2023, it will reach a historically high price, which will stimulate large-scale planting, rise high, fall hard, and fall to a low level after autumn. At that time, the overall market downturn did not rebound, but only a small shock. However, after the holiday, the market turned overheated, with a historical high of 400 yuan as a reference, and the price of 60-70 yuan was already a low price. Therefore, the funds are concerned and the market is rising rapidly, but the price has fallen slightly, the inventory is large, and the time for price increase is not ripe, and it is still in the category of rebound.
Xiangfu: This round of price increases, which is a low-price bottom-up. In the context of this round of market rises, Xiangfu has not performed prominently, and most merchants believe that there is little room for this price to fall. Therefore, the investment risk is not large, and the business actively follows up, resulting in a significant rise in the market, but the price is difficult to rise for many years, indicating that there are constraints on their own production, supply and demand, and the current artificial rise, and the market outlook needs to be observed.
Licorice: It also belongs to the price plummeting variety, but the production cycle of this product is long, and the production is difficult to recover. With the heat of the market and the boost of funds, this week has also achieved a strong rebound, and the recoverable amount this year is not large, and the market outlook still needs to be continued to pay attention to.
Psyllium has just experienced a historical high price of 120 yuan for reference, the current price of 20 yuan is not high, the investment risk is not large, the capital follow-up, the market rebound, but the inventory is in quantity, the new output is still not small, and it is difficult to reverse the trend in the short term; winter sunflower wild varieties, once the supply and demand relationship is reversed, the market is also relatively strong; wheat winter rebounds strongly, the market is back to a high level, and the short-term attention is paid to the actual sales of goods; the price of safflower falls, the merchant buys the bottom, the inventory is in quantity, and it is still a rebound market; gardenia is difficult to stabilize due to capital turmoil; the supply of He Shou Wu is becoming more and more concentrated, and the price is also rising again and again, and the price rise is concerned about the stimulating effect of the price on the wild。 Skullcap is reported that the amount of mining this year is still not large, the mentality of the holders is stable, the price is firm, and the market outlook is concerned about the impact of the year.
3.2 Analysis of falling symbols
Table 2: Hot varieties of market price decline this week (unit: yuan/kg)
There are 10 varieties that have fallen in price this week, and there are 4 varieties that have fallen by about 10%, accounting for 40%. Compared with last week, the decline is narrowing and slowing down, which is closely related to the market environment.
From the point of view of the theme of falling price varieties: the epidemic and the theme of inverted spring and cold have weakened, and merchants are actively selling, such as dogwood, forsythia, and peach kernels; production has been greatly expanded, and there is great pressure to produce new products in autumn, such as Banxia and Banlangen, and there is great inventory pressure, such as melon; new or new varieties, such as Cnidium monnieri and raspberry.
Semi-summer: spring planting and autumn harvest, annual production, production recovery fast, and since May, Hunan and Hubei have produced new first, Gansu in August and September, and Hebei, Shanxi and other real estate in October, with a long production time and difficult to control funds. This year's high prices have stimulated the expansion of production in various places, and the pressure on new production in autumn is great, and the holders are more active in sales, the market is declining steadily, and the price is falling and the purchase is less, so pay attention to whether the new market in autumn is in the end.
Banlangen: low production investment, simple production, strong adaptability, can be planted in many places, and there are many production areas. Affected by the decline in grain prices, this year's planting enthusiasm is high, merchants are more active in sales, the market is weak and downward, and the market outlook is focused on the new production situation.
Dogwood, forsythia, peach kernels: without the theme of spring cold, the holders are anxious, and they are more active in sales, resulting in the market is also falling again and again. Pickers are the bottom support of the market, and there is no weather theme, and the market will pay attention to the opening price of new production.
Pig tooth soap is a small variety, with large resource reserves, high prices stimulate production, and it is normal for prices to fall; cumin production resumes downward prices; melons have a large amount and prices have slipped, and the market has gradually bottomed out; the demand for Cnidium monnieri is insufficient, facing new production, and the market is weak and the price is shrinking; raspberry is new, and there is no theme to pull, and the purchase and sale prices of franchisees are cautious.
Fourth, the market trend next week
1. Hot spots continue, funds are disrupted, and the tide of price increases is spreading The market is still difficult to stabilize next week, and it is necessary to focus on the disturbance of capital to the variety market, and not blindly follow the trend.
2. Insufficient actual demand Some varieties that are less concerned about are not sold well, and merchants are actively selling, and the phenomenon of market polarization continues.
3. Focus on the production of new varieties The market fluctuates and fluctuates, and it is expected to become the focus of short-term capital operation.
4. The theme of weather still needs attention, especially the theme of hail and low temperature.
5. Pay attention to the planting situation After the planting is over, focus on tracking the emergence and growth of seedlings.
6. The increase in the activity of small varieties is particularly easy to be disturbed by speculative traders and even control the market, but it is easy to fall into a price and no market.
(Unless otherwise noted in the article, the data are from Zhongkang Yunling)