There is corn in the northeast, which is a granary; There is wheat in North China, which is a granary; There are increased reserves in Northeast China and increased reserves in North China - this is the new pattern of the market this year.
For this new pattern, it is the normal acquisition of directly subordinate warehouses and local reserves on the one hand, and on the other hand, it is necessary to increase reserves, and this new pattern, Xiaobian has also expressed in previous articles, and it is not a point of view only today.
The purpose of increasing reserves is very simple and clear, it is expected that wheat is a year of increased production, and at the same time, traders have been gambling on the market at high prices for several years, resulting in the weakening of traders' enthusiasm for purchases, so at this time the increase in reserves must be "shining" debut.
In order to leverage the market, change expectations, and drive traders to enter the market to build inventory, if they can't pry, continue to increase the amount until traders enter the market. Can this idea be realized? Definitely can, believe in the ability and humanity of the big brother behind it.
Hello friends, today is June 4, 2024, Shandong and Hebei regions have begun to enter the harvesting stage, and the mainstream purchase price of grassroots grain points is about 1.14~1.17 yuan.
However, Hebei and Shandong are basically stuck in the water purchase, and those who shout for the purchase at a price of more than 1.2 yuan are either a conspiracy or a conspiracy. If you listen to it, you are very likely to fall into the pit.
The first major feature of the wheat market is that the first harvest is more expensive to buy, and the last harvest is cheaper
Henan, Hubei these two provinces are what moisture of wheat are purchased, and then stored in batches, at the same time, the early purchase price is basically around 1.17 ~ 1.18 yuan, the moisture is different, the region is different, the price is different, and the impurities are large.
However, due to the high-priced acquisition in the early stage, it is now also "annoyed" and painful, and I want to sell it for 1.1~1.2 yuan, but no one takes over at all - how can this situation be so similar to corn?
On the other hand, in the two provinces of Hebei and Shandong, although the purchase price is almost the same as that of Henan and Hubei, the moisture is low and the impurities are small, so the cost is low.
The second major feature of the wheat market: if there is a close range of enterprises to buy, wheat can flow smoothly, otherwise there is basically no way
For example, Henan and Hubei grain merchants purchased at about 1.2 yuan are close to feed and flour enterprises, and can be sold directly to enterprises after acquisition, saving freight, so the price is higher.
The grain points with long transportation distances and high prices are all in a state of "unsatisfactory prices" without exception.
Through the phenomenon of the north and the south, I believe that smart people can come to a conclusion: due to the price and geographical advantages of the north, there is a high probability that the circulation will be advanced and the pressure will be released in advance, while the selling pressure in the south will be delayed due to cost and other reasons - just like the corn market in the north and south in the first half of the year.
Farmers in Hubei and Henan who harvested and sold grain in advance did not sell at the historically high price, but for the wheat market in the 2024 season, it can be described as a high price - for local grain points and grain merchants, the price was once again "planted".
Although farmers in Hebei and Shandong are also actively selling grain, they are relatively selling at a low price, because the moisture is too low, so for local grain points and grain merchants, there may be another opportunity!
At present, some grain merchants in the northern market have been rushing to buy wheat, and it is higher than the mainstream price of the market, and some even exceed the purchase price of feed companies.
Xiaobian also expressed in the previous article: "The high price of rotating wheat in the early stage, especially in the early stage, is basically happy to bloom, and even if it participates in the auction in the later stage, there is a profit of about 100 yuan" - therefore, this part of the main body will definitely actively rush to buy.
But there are also some subjects who are still waiting, waiting for the price of wheat to continue to fall, and then make more profits - can they achieve it?
If there are food points that also "follow the trend" type of acquisition, they either have their own goals, or they are enthusiastic.
Because, for most grain merchants, if it is more than 1.2 yuan to purchase, it is relatively very cautious, when it will rise in the future, how much it can rise, everything is unknown now.
Recently, a relatively well-known flour company has made an announcement: I hope that traders will not over-grab grain, and wheat may fall. The main reason is that the flour companies have also changed their strategies:
1. The purchase of flour enterprises is divided into tickets and no tickets, and the difference on the surface is 10 yuan, but for the large grain merchants, there is a lot of difference;
2. Many noodle enterprises use invitations to procure, and do not make public acquisitions, just to reduce the cost of acquisition again;
3. In the early stage, the big brother behind him held a meeting with a certain company, and he was not allowed to drop the price again, but the company turned a deaf ear and was still overcapacity;
4. Because of the unsalable products caused by overcapacity, we are producing standard powder and feed flour on the other hand;
To sum up, this year's wheat has come out of the "identical" corn fate - good wheat has no good price, secondary wheat is more difficult to find, and if you want to appear after the rain, you have to wait for hundreds of years.
Therefore, the current wheat market is fully replicating the market before and after the Spring Festival in Northeast China.
(1) Heilongjiang + Jilin + Liaoning, there is no price difference, it cannot be circulated - now the wheat market is like this, where to sell has become a problem;
(2) Deep processing enterprises frequently drop prices, do not sell, and sell even more - the same is true of the wheat market now;
(3) The purchase price of grain points around deep processing is higher than that in remote areas - it is higher than that around flour and feed enterprises, and there is no profit in the distance, or it is eaten to death by freight.
(4) Northeast corn internal circulation, can not go out of Shanhaiguan - the wheat market is stationary, only the transaction between the grain point and the traders, even if you come and go, only 1~2 points of profit;
(5) Farmers don't sell when it's cheap, and they don't dare to collect it at a high price - the wheat market game is too low and doesn't want to sell, and too high and doesn't want to collect.
In this case, the only way to alleviate or solve the current phenomenon is to force the big brother behind him to make a move, and this shot is to increase reserves.
It is not known whether the effect of increasing reserves will be out of the Northeast market after the continuous increase in weight, or whether it will be immediately visible at a certain point in time.
The wheat market is not yet fully harvested, so everything is mixed and not yet concrete, but it is also creating opportunities for the year's lows.
The next is the opportunity for traders to enter the market at any time, and the first thing to pay attention to is the trend of feed companies, because the price of feed is the bottom of wheat, not the policy, which is worthy of everyone's attention!
When the main body of feed enters the market more and more actively, it can basically indicate that the lower range appears, and the rest is the layout and price of increasing reserves, and the other is to exchange time for space.
At the same time, try to use your own funds, don't use three parties, don't use three parties - it's better to miss out than to make mistakes.
Therefore, this year is a new market structure, but also the trend of the future, talking about the so-called return, what is not a market, or superficial.
The above is only a personal opinion, does not represent correctness, and is not used as an investment basis.
The latest wheat purchase price of flour enterprises in China on June 4, 2024
Shandong developed flour Wucheng: class A 1.245 yuan, class B 1.24 yuan. Drop 5 percent.
Shandong developed flour Liaocheng: class A 1.245 yuan, class B 1.24 yuan. Drop 5 percent.
Shandong Dongming Wudeli: Pumai 1.24 yuan (with tickets), 1.235 yuan (no tickets). Drop 5 percent.
Shandong developed flour west area: class A 1.245 yuan, class B 1.24 yuan, down 5 percent. Xinmai 1.23 yuan.
Shandong Heze Tianbang grain and oil: Xinmai 1.24 yuan, 1.25 yuan (with tickets), Chen Mai Yuqian wheat 1.285 yuan, 1.295 yuan (with tickets).
Henan Yanjin Keming flour: 1.245 yuan. Drop 5 percent.
Henan Shangqiu Wudeli: 1.24 yuan (with tickets). Drop 5 percent.
COFCO flour industry in Anyang, Henan: 1.24 yuan for large cars, 1.23 yuan for small cars, and the same price for new and Chen. Drop 1 point.
Hebei Handan Wudeli: Pumai 1.23 yuan. Drop 5 percent.
Hebei Daimyo Wudeli: 1.235 yuan (with tickets). Drop 5 percent.
Hebei Longyao Jinmailang: 1.235 yuan for the cart and 1.215 yuan for the car. Drop 5 percent.
Hebei Xiong'an good noodles: white wheat 1.255 yuan, red wheat 1.245 yuan. Drop 5 percent.
Hebei Baixiang good noodles: Pumai 1.235 yuan, 1.24 yuan (with tickets). Drop 1 point.
Hebei Handan light noodle industry: Pumai 1.23 yuan, 800 bulk weight, 11.5 water, 30 gluten, Xinmai 26/02-1, 1.35 yuan, Zhongmai 578/5766/2018 and other second-class Youmai 1.3 yuan. Drop 5 percent.
Jiangsu Suqian Wudeli: 1.24 yuan. Drop 5 percent.