The war between Russia and Ukraine has been burning for more than two years, and both sides are fighting on the battlefield in the dark, and no one can help the other. At this juncture, Putin, the head of the Kremlin, suddenly threw out new conditions for ceasefire negotiations, like a thunderclap on the ground, which shook the entire international community. What does this powerful "Tsar" want? In the face of a tough response from Ukraine and the Western camp, what will he do?
From de facto control to annexation: a major adjustment of Putin's negotiating conditions
Previously, Putin's "price" for peace talks was that Ukraine must recognize the status quo in Crimea and parts of the four eastern regions of Ukraine, and use this as a basis to freeze the war and start negotiations. But in the latest conditions, Russia's appetite is clearly whetted - they are no longer satisfied with the territory they currently actually control, but want to take the entire four regions of eastern Ukraine in one fell swoop.
Putting aside the diplomatic rhetoric, it is clear that Russia's strategic objectives are undergoing two key changes:
First, from trying to take Kyiv in one fell swoop, to focusing on the "meal on the plate" in the eastern part of Ukraine. The Russian side has realized that in the current balance of strength, if it wants to swallow the whole of Ukraine, it is a fool's dream, it is better to cut off the fattest piece of meat first. To put it bluntly, when the catastrophe is approaching, it is better to break the tail to survive than to lose the wife and break the army.
The second is to move from shouting and shouting "denazification and demilitarization" to straightforwardly demarcating spheres of influence. The guise of idealism is torn off, and what is exposed is naked realist ambition. In the vernacular, the four prefectures of Crimea and Udong have not intended to let go from beginning to end, and must be firmly held in their own hands.
Zelensky angrily denounced, this is clearly an "ultimatum"!
As soon as Putin's new conditions were thrown, they immediately caused an uproar in Ukraine and the Western camp.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said bluntly, where is this negotiation, it is clearly a naked "ultimatum"! Either obediently obey or die. And U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin and NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg have also stated that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has entered a "critical decisive stage", and the West will further increase its support for Ukraine.
From their reactions, it's not hard to sniff out what's going on behind them. In the eyes of Ukraine and the West, although Russia has attacked cities and seized land, it has not yet achieved "one ride on the dust" and has not achieved an overwhelming advantage on the battlefield. What's more, Zelensky's position has always been tough, what they want is the full withdrawal of Russian troops, compensation for war losses, severe punishment for war crimes, and will never accept Russia's harsh conditions.
It can be seen from this that the differences between the two sides are not a half-point, but rather divergent from each other, each holding its own word. It is difficult to resolve the contradictions and antagonisms on the battlefield with confrontation at the negotiating table, unless one side first lowers its head high.
Abandon the city to protect the land or the fish die and the net is broken? The game between the two sides has entered a critical moment
So the question is, Putin is not a god who does not eat the fireworks of the world, he knows that Ukraine cannot accept such harsh conditions, why does he still "know that there are tigers in the mountains, and prefer tigers in the mountains"? Is he really ready to be the enemy of the entire Western world?
In fact, a little analysis will show that the water in it is much deeper than we thought.
First of all, this is Putin's venting of his dissatisfaction with Western countries, especially the G7. Not long ago, this so-called "club of democratic leaders" just made a decision to use frozen Russian assets as an "ATM" for military aid to Ukraine, and to use this money to pay post-war reparations. Russia has finally saved up the family money, and if it says no, it will not be there, who can swallow this breath? Putin wants to use a tough posture to fight back against the West's "money grabbing" behavior.
Secondly, it is also a pre-emptive strike by the Russian side against the upcoming Ukrainian-led peace summit. Russia is well aware that once Ukraine and the West take the lead in speaking out and dominate the discourse of public opinion, it is likely that a consensus against Russia will be reached at the summit. Therefore, Putin simply struck first, smashed his own conditions on the negotiating table first, and tried to stop the opponent's wishful thinking. This trick "preemptively" can be said to be used just right.
Moreover, as the war progresses, Russia has realized a cruel reality: comparing with Ukraine on the battlefield is tantamount to drinking doves to quench thirst, and it will not solve the problem at all. In the long run, you will only drag yourself into a quagmire of becoming more and more passive. And where is the root of the problem? It is not yet NATO, especially the United States, that has continuously transfused blood to Ukraine and become a "perpetual motion machine" for this war.
As a result, we have seen that Russia has sacrificed two major killer features: first, it frequently holds tactical nuclear weapons exercises at its doorstep, demonstrates to NATO nakedly, and poses at the expense of breaking the net; Second, it dispatched a fleet headed by the "Kazan" to attack the Caribbean Sea, the "backyard" of the United States. There is only one purpose, that is, to force the West to retreat in the face of difficulties and stop military blood transfusions to Ukraine. It's a thrilling gamble, but for Putin, who has burned out his back roads, it may be a desperate gamble.
What's more interesting is that some people pointed out that Russia is doing things at the "doorstep" of the United States at this time, and there is another political consideration - that is, to help Trump in the election, and strive to return this "old friend" who advocates US-Russian friendship and opposes military aid to Ukraine to return to the White House. After all, Russia's strategic interests are more secure only if a confidant like Trump is in charge. This cannot but be said to be a clever move.
Where is the situation heading? We'll just have to wait and see
Looking at the overall situation, as the game intensifies, the Ukrainian battlefield is entering a most critical moment. Putin showed his last trump card, but it remains to be seen whether this deck will truly turn the tide of the war. After all, Ukraine's ability to withstand the pressure depends largely on the strength of Western aid. It can be said that the wrestling between the two sides has spread from the battlefield to a broader battlefield such as diplomacy, economy, and public opinion, and has become an all-round contest.
Let us look forward to the day when the smoke of gunfire will dissipate and peace will come with the simplest kindness. But at the same time, we must also keep a clear head and see the complexity of human nature reflected in this war, as well as the cold logic of the primacy of national interests. Only in this way can we grasp the basic context of historical progress behind the complicated appearances.
What are your insights on the current situation? You may wish to leave a comment to share. Let's follow the latest developments on the battlefield in Ukraine and discuss this uncertain world together. #头条创作挑战赛#