In the first half of 2024, domestic e-commerce did not improve in the slightest, and after entering June, despite the hot weather, e-commerce bosses felt a chill.
This year's 618 shopping festival was particularly deserted, everyone thought that last year was already difficult, but they didn't expect it to be even more difficult this year. The economic downturn, weak exports, overcapacity, all walks of life are involuting, and e-commerce is not immune.
I have noticed the latest data on the country's economy released by the state media, the inflation rate is almost zero, and the export data is negative. These two big data mean that our foreign trade has shrunk and domestic demand is sluggish.
Many people think that e-commerce is destroying our economy, just as people have always thought that real estate is destroying the economy of the mainland.
In fact, it is not, mainly caused by the underlying logic of the market economy. Under the market economic system, when economic development reaches a certain stage, there will be an economic crisis, and this situation has happened countless times in Western society, and there has been no good solution.
Our country has gone through 40 years of reform and opening up, and its economy has developed at an astonishing speed, and it is already a miracle that it has been able to maintain 40 consecutive years without thunderstorms. You must know that the economy of Western society is going to explode every ten years.
After three years of the epidemic, a large number of physical enterprises have closed down, and only live broadcast e-commerce has flourished, especially a large number of Internet celebrity anchors have seized the opportunity and made a lot of money. Internet celebrities like Simba and Brother Xiao Yang, who make jokes, may be difficult to earn one million a year if they are not in this special era, but due to the rise of live broadcast e-commerce, they have become god-like existences, and they can net hundreds of millions of dollars a year, which is incredible.
I still remember an interview with Dong Yuhui, a month before he became famous, he had already borrowed all the online loans he could borrow, and he was about to leave his job. To this day, Dong Yuhui himself can't understand how an ordinary New Oriental teacher became a top anchor with goods.
If the small anchor relies on hard work, then the big anchor completely relies on luck, and relying on luck is the most unconvincing. Therefore, the whole society is envious, jealous and hateful to Internet celebrity anchors, and then people hate live broadcast e-commerce.
In fact, in the three years of the epidemic, the development of live broadcast e-commerce is deformed and abnormal. Many good goods are being sold on the live broadcast platform at prices far lower than normal, because these supply chain bosses are facing a break in the capital chain due to the lockdown of the epidemic, and they have to lose money to recover their cash flow, and they are forced to lose money and cooperate with these big anchors.
It is precisely because of these goods, which are far lower than the normal price, that these big anchors have won a reputation among fans, making them seem to have become heroes who rob the rich and help the poor and seek benefits for their families. As everyone knows, they are just taking advantage of the fire to rob.
Factories and supply chains can't always do business at a loss, but consumers and anchors who have tasted the sweetness are unwilling to give up the benefits they have received. Therefore, the anchor continues to put pressure on the factory and supply chain, and in order to make money, the factory and the supply chain can only desperately reduce the cost, shoddy, and enter the death spiral, and the live broadcast platform has become stinky.
To put it bluntly, it is a sentence that takes advantage of the situation and turns greed for granted.
Let's talk about the case of a member of my fan community, Hangwan Club.
That boss is a food processor. Supply snack chicken feet to live broadcast supply chain companies. It started out as a small bag with a whole chicken claw, then changed to a small piece of chicken feet, and finally simply a chicken bone.
Even the boss couldn't cry or laugh, saying that he wouldn't eat a bite of this kind of garbage, and consumers were just talking about the taste of additives and condiments.
I asked him, then why are you making this junk food. He said that the money given by downstream e-commerce companies is only enough to make this kind of garbage. And the price demanded by the live broadcast company according to the anchor is only enough to purchase this garbage.
You get what you pay for, in the past, it was the factory owner who was forced to bleed because of the epidemic, and the anchor and the consumer picked up the cheap. Now that the factory is out of business, it refuses to admit compensation. Consumers are also raised, and they refuse to spend a penny more, but the anchor is still so greedy that he doesn't do anything less to earn a penny. As a result, the live broadcast room was flooded with a large amount of low-cost garbage.
If this continues, the live broadcast platform will be stinky, the anchor's reputation will be collapsed, consumers will feel cheated, sales will decline, orders will decrease, and factories will be yellowed. The entire business chain has collectively cooled down after an abnormal consumption overdraft during the epidemic.
Therefore, it is not to blame anyone for the economic downturn, and live broadcast e-commerce should take the blame, but it has also been punished. Needless to say, the supply chain bosses are collectively cool, and the life of the anchor this year is not easy. The income of the small anchor is halved, and the big anchor is frightened, and if he doesn't do well, he will overturn and be investigated.
Many of the big anchors of this 618 can't wait to stop broadcasting, and they can be low-key. At this time, the big anchors who are still desperately making money are extremely risky. Because they have moved too many people's cheese, it can be said that the heavens are angry and resentful, and they may be pulled out of the Fa-rectification at any time.
Some people say that e-commerce is not dead, and there is no way out for China's economy, but I disagree. In the past, everyone said that real estate is not dead, and there is no way out for China's economy, but now that real estate is dead, where is the way out?
So the economic downturn is a whole problem, multifaceted. For example, the Sino-US trade war, an aging population, and a declining birth rate are all causes. It is by no means possible to save the economy by shutting down e-commerce.
If you follow Keynes's theory, then the best thing to do is to send money. Not in proportion, but in human hair. One person pays 100,000 yuan, the rich people don't increase much, and the poor solve the big problem, and the high prices will be endured.
Ahem, I'm talking nonsense, let's not mix up national events, let's go back and talk about some practicality, what should these e-commerce supply chain bosses do?
Try not to sell on a single online platform, now the price war on live broadcast platforms is getting more and more serious, unless there is an industrial belt with a very high supply chain advantage, it is difficult for small and medium-sized businesses to make a profit. Another big problem is that the traffic of the platform is too expensive, and it is difficult to cover the cost of traffic with a one-time purchase and sale.
Increasing repurchase and diluting traffic costs are things that every merchant must do.
It's not easy, and the only way I can think of at the moment is to operate a private domain, and private domain operation is not suitable for all categories.
The main purpose of private domain operation is to solve the trust problem between buyers and sellers, increase customer stickiness through the interaction between the two parties, and realize repurchase and order promotion. If you want to operate on a large scale, then from drainage, to conversion, and finally delivery, you need to refine the operation, and the time cost is very high. Therefore, products destined to be suitable for the private domain must be non-standard, high repurchase, and the gross profit margin must be relatively high.
My private business school has opened a group, and more than 100 students have entered today, I am very happy, I tell you, I am not a teacher, I am also a student, and we learn and progress together. Strive to understand the private domain, because this is not only the outlet, but also can solve our dilemma.
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Gao Hongye: Investor in live broadcast e-commerce, has conducted due diligence on hundreds of e-commerce and supply chain companies, and participated in dozens of project investments. Founder of the Entrepreneur Club Hangwan Club Circle of Friends, join the Hangwan Club Circle of Friends, make more friends and step on the pit less.
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