European Cup column: summary of the first round of group stage + prediction of the final qualifying result! Recommended collection!

Yingxian said

2024-06-19 06:24Published in Zhejiang

The reason why I am writing this content is because every time I come across a big competition, there are many friends who want to "predict" the game. I'm not a god who can't predict the game, but I can talk about my judgment of the teams in the first round of the group stage.

In my opinion, the team that has made its debut is the most authentic and the most savorable. A lot of things can be inferred and confirmed through the details of the first game, and you can roughly judge the trend of this team in this tournament - but the ugly words are ahead, and football can never be said to be impossible, so in case some teams are ashamed and brave, it is best not to dig up the grave and just laugh it off (◐‿◑)

This article is roughly divided into two parts, one is to talk about some of the new trends that impressed me from the perspective of the performance of the first round of the group stage, and the second part is to predict the outcome of the current group situation.

1. Description of the new style –

After the frequent first round of group games, I found the following things interesting -

a. Many teams have a very rich tactical design;

b. After a long club season, many teams are still able to play with a pressing quality of play;

c. Matchup between three and four backs;

d. The different fates of several elderly passers.

One by one—

Regarding A, I think the tactical arrangements of the giants who won in the first round were all impressive - from Germany's back-end Kroos and 334's offensive system in the opening game, to Italy's first-half deficit to the brave 145 position in the overtaking process, to the Netherlands' traditional project from 433 to 343, and then to Portugal's fine change from 352 to 3331 at the end.

Among them, I think the most worth studying are Italy and Portugal. As for Italy's true prowess, I think the answer will be found right away through their showdown with Spain (which is exciting ^_^ to think about); And this complicated arrangement of Portugal coach Martinez, I guess, is largely to make Ronaldo "appear in front of the goal as much as possible".

It's really hard for brothers. After stepping over the strongest opponents in the group, the Czech Republic, it feels that Portugal's strong strength can support them to continue playing like this.

Regarding B, I think there are a lot of big teams in certain stages of the game where the big teams can give some proof, like the first half of Italy, the first half of Spain, the first half of England (although it's more like Belin's pressing feeling alone), and so on. But the strong teams definitely have to stay, so we can only see half the time in this kind of "breathless" game, which is good.

It's hard to say about teams that aren't that strong – Romania, Slovakia, Switzerland and Turkey, for example, I feel like it's crazy with the rhythm of the whole game, and they all won with their strength and stamina. As for the "hand-to-hand combat" like Denmark vs. Slovenia, I can't define whether the two sides have been fighting or have been pretending to be fighting (◐‿◑).

From the point of view of the European Championship itself, this kind of high-intensity game, which is very similar to the pace of the Premier League, is at least visually beautiful.

C is one of the interesting key points of the tournament that I feel – it seems that a back three is becoming common. This includes Italy, Switzerland, Hungary, Denmark and the Czech Republic, which are accustomed to playing a back three, as well as Germany, England, the Netherlands, Croatia and so on, which will change to a back three at certain times during the game. The one that was most interesting to me was Portugal – I felt that in the first game against the Czech Republic, they would probably be going to be playing according to the formation of the opponents, with a back four going on and three centre-backs mirroring the three.

According to the law of tactical changes in recent years, 4231 seems to be no longer the only choice for the major giants - I am afraid that the "giant" team that clings to 4231 is only Belgium, which has lost humiliously and humorously. In addition, top teams such as France, Spain, England, and Germany with an initial formation of 4231 have far more than one set of formation change plans, and they can switch freely during the game.

What I can predict is that this change in positioning and tactics will become more frequent and more proficient as this tournament progresses. This will also be more demanding on the players' bodies and brains.

How can it be neat up with such involution? Why don't we collectively make up for our brains?

As a far-reaching source of European football, especially Central European football, the three central defenders seem to be going around and rejuvenating again - everyone finds that teams that use the back three formation can often create "excess" pressure on the opponent through the continuous switching and forward insertion of players in the anxious moment of the game, and finally achieve goals.

If you are not used to this kind of scene, then you will gradually become familiar with ^_^ it later.

D is my personal summary of many core players in the first round of the group stage - such as Kroos, Eriksen, Modric, De Bruyne and other passers with real organizational ability, are moving to two levels due to the different tactical design and personnel allocation of the team.

Kroos, for example, I feel that with the tactical freedom and weight that the German team has given him so far, as long as there are no major surprises, he has a good chance of leading the team all the way to the final (if Germany makes it to the last four, it will be considered a victory, right?). ）。 And if the myth of the championship is really created, then the first "retired Golden Ball" in history doesn't seem so impossible, right? (◐‿◑)

Eriksen still took on the role of a unique playmaker in the Danish team, and with his magical performance of returning to score in 1,100 days, the Danish fairy tale was continued. Personally, I don't think the Danish team had a good ceiling, but Eriksen did inject a different style into the rough guys.

As for the Magic Flute and Tintin, I'm afraid they are the worst "core" players right now, right? Each of them has their own problems – but not with the 'passer' role itself, but more with the team's system and their own running ability. That's why I always say that people are afraid of comparison — can you see the benefits of Nagorsmann when you compare them?

In addition to this pure passer, there are actually a few less typical core players who deserve praise – such as Lobotka, Barella, Xhaka, Zielinski, Sabitzer, Stanciu, Calhanoglu, Vitinha, Soucek and many more.

You see, this is another topic of "feng shui turns". If you have an organizational core, then you better rely on it – this European Championship is likely to create a new atmosphere where people will become dependent on the organizational core again.

2. Group Situation Prediction –

Group A should be the most evenly split – Germany and Switzerland battle it out for the top spot, while Scotland and Hungary are expected to be knocked out of the round of 16 in terms of performance and strength in the first round. I even had the feeling that Switzerland would overtake Germany to top the group – it all depends on how many goals each side will have in the second round. The final rankings are predicted to be Switzerland, Germany, Hungary and Scotland.

The situation in Group B needs to take into account the direct PK of Croatia and Italy in the final round of the group, but this premise is that Croatia must beat Albania by a big margin. As things stand, even if they can't win against Spain in the second round, Italy won't have much pressure to keep a second place in the group. So the final ranking given is: Spain, Italy, Croatia, Albania. And Croatia, which has a terrible goal difference, even if they finish third in the group, there is a high possibility of being eliminated directly.

The situation in Group C is not easy to say, and I think the direct confrontation between Slovenia and Serbia in the second round will determine the general trend of this group. Judging from the performance in the first round, I feel that Slovenia is the more eye-catching one, but everyone also understands that it is difficult to say how stable and convincing the performance of this kind of game and this level of team will be (◐‿◑) so I am still more optimistic that Serbia will overpower Slovenia. In short, this group of rankings should be England, Serbia, Denmark and Slovenia.

Group D seems to be another "group of death", with France and the Netherlands coming up in direct talks and France likely to win (but the length of Mbappe's injury is a real question). Austria, on the other hand, is expected to step on Poland and ultimately decide who is second in the group in direct dialogue with the Netherlands. So my prediction for this group is: France, Austria, Netherlands and Poland.

Group E was the most chaotic group due to Belgium's poor performance. For now, Slovakia have a clear head start, with their opponents behind them, Romania and Ukraine, not stronger than them – and a move on Belgium will make them more confident and aiming for – and if they don't lose to Ukraine in the second round, qualification is secure. As for Belgium, if they can't eat Romania...... Maybe it's better for them to go home early? The ranking of this group is very difficult to guess, but I would expect it to be Slovakia, Romania, Belgium and Ukraine.

In Group F, I think Portugal are far superior to the other three teams, and Turkey will be battling the Czechs for second place in the group – and I'm still more likely to like the Czechs (the quality of the two teams doesn't seem to be on the same level). As for Georgia, they have already fulfilled their dream of scoring their first European Championship goal in their history, and the trip to Germany is no surprise. The rankings of this group are very easy to guess: Portugal, Czech Republic, Turkey and Georgia.

Also, I estimate that the four teams that finish third in the group are probably Hungary, Denmark (Serbia), the Netherlands and Turkey.

In terms of the group stage analysis, I didn't focus on England and France because I felt that they each had a lot of room to rise. The general trend of the "Great Power Battle" is still the mainstream in this competition, and I have written an article early on predicting the champions of England, France and Germany, and the dark horse Switzerland and Austria (●'◡'●).

Finally, if you think my analysis is meaningful and reasonable, please like and share it more (◐‿◑) I plan to update another wave after the group stage is over, and then it will be the ultimate prediction of this competition.

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