I haven't written about real estate for a long time, and during this time, I often wonder if there is a chance for the mainland property market to usher in another upward cycle? Will house prices rise back to 2018 levels?
Recently, the policy on real estate has been relaxed, and compared with the property market policy two years ago, we will find that there has been a 180-degree reversal. Now the mortgage interest rate and down payment ratio are decreasing, and the loan amount of the provident fund is constantly rising.
In the past two days, some media reports said that at present, "some banks in Shanghai apply for housing loans below 10 million, and there is no need for running water, and the bank approves it in seconds!" "This is not alarmist, but there are already banks in operation, as long as you dare to act, some banks dare to lend you money, 10 million directly approved in seconds.
The whole process is like being afraid that you will regret not taking out a loan halfway, can it be said that the bank's loan performance is already poor and cannot be seen? After all, who would borrow so much money these days, more just put a little deposit in the bank to prepare for uncertainty in the future.
What is the current property market doing with the blessing of many favorable policies? Is it as some people say that it is starting to be hot, and some real estate projects are starting to be coaxed by buyers?
In fact, now that we think about it, when we follow the trend, it is really easy to lose independent thinking. In the current situation, the reason why a real estate is coaxed by everyone is that in addition to making a huge interest rate difference from it, I believe that few real demand will rush forward.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to May 2024, the sales area of newly built commercial housing will be 370 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.3%, and the sales area of commercial housing in May will be 73.9 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.7% (the monthly growth rate is calculated after adjusting the base, the same below), and the decline is 2.1 percentage points narrower than that in April.
Among them, the sales area of new residential buildings was 310 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.6%, and the decline rate was 0.2 percentage points narrower than that from January to April.
From January to May 2024, the sales of newly built commercial housing were 3.6 trillion yuan, down 27.9% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points narrower than that from January to April, and the monthly sales of commercial housing in May were 759.8 billion yuan, down 26.4% year-on-year, and the decline was 4.1 percentage points narrower than that in April. Among them, the sales of new residential buildings were 3.1 trillion yuan, down 30.5% year-on-year, and the decline was 0.6 percentage points narrower than that in April.
Sure enough, it did not disappoint everyone, after the blessing of many favorable policies, the property market still did not improve much, whether it was sales or sales area is still declining.
In this round of the property market "price reduction tide", the author has seen a lot of cases of house price reduction, on the whole, there are 3 types of houses that have fallen the most, and it is also recommended that you plan well when buying a house.
The first type is the rigid demand community with high plot ratio, poor property and poor community quality.
Because of the high floor area ratio, this kind of community has a very large number of residents, a higher frequency of use of various public resources, and a shorter period of damage. Add to that an inferior property, not in place to maintain and manage, and then the dilapidation of the entire community will be accelerated.
Then, as time goes on, people continue to sell or rent out their houses, and the people who move in start to be uneven, and the management becomes more and more chaotic, and it becomes more and more difficult to collect property fees, and eventually it becomes a dirty and messy new "slum", and housing prices will fall rapidly.
The second category is houses that are far away from the central or core development areas of the city
This point is very appropriate to use Xingyang, Zhengzhou as an example, around 2017, the house in Xingyang Donglinhu can be sold for about 10,000 yuan, or even higher. Although it belongs to Xingyang and is outside the Fifth Ring Road, it has a good environment and is under construction Metro Line 6 (which has now been opened).
Therefore, when the property market is generally good, many people are still willing to spend 8000-10,000 yuan to buy here.
However, now the house here is generally listed at a price of about 5,000, or even lower, and many rigid needs are directly discounted, which is really uncomfortable.
The third type is the staircase house that is more than 15 years old, which is what everyone calls the old and the old.
The biggest problem of this kind of house is that there is no elevator, and it is really tiring to go up and down the stairs, and young people may be better, but it is really unfriendly to the elderly at home. Secondly, such communities are usually very dilapidated, everything is old, and the sense of happiness in life is really not high.
Especially after you have observed those communities that have just been handed over, you will find that living in the old communities is quite uncomfortable.
Of course, all of this may be based on the old and dilapidated (big) bought at a high price, if you buy this kind of house in the last two years, the price has fallen a lot, and the cost performance has begun to appear. After all, the surrounding facilities are really complete and mature, and there is no shortage of hospitals, supermarkets, subways, parks, etc.
Again, the possibility of a comprehensive rise in the property market in the future is basically gone, only a small number of high-quality houses will continue to increase in price, and most inferior properties will become a stepping stone for a small number of high-quality properties. There are two main reasons, one is that there are too many houses just needed, and the other is that affordable housing is entering the market in large quantities.