Pensions increased by 3%, what about the future?

Imakei

2024-06-18 21:18Published in Guangdong Finance and Economics Creator

Let the young and middle-aged take a breather, they can't support so many people with high pensions.

Author: Li Yiyi

A 3% increase in pensions is a great thing for retirees, but what about the future?

Let's talk about this from two levels: first, the impact of demographic changes on pensions. Second, the difference in pensions.

China's pension system is pay-as-you-go, that is, some of these pension-receiving elderly people did pay pensions that year, but the pensions they paid that year have been used by the previous generation of old people. Why do I say that only some of the elderly have paid pensions? Because some people did not pay pensions that year, when they were reformed, they were regarded as paying and they could still have better retirement treatment after retirement. Personally, I don't have much opinion on such a policy, after all, a stable transition is needed.

Therefore, it is an objective fact that the pension received by the retired elderly is actually the social security paid by middle-aged and young people who are now working. This game model, as long as the population is growing gradually and the young people are increasing, that's fine.

However, the problem now is that the total population has been growing negatively for two consecutive years, and the aging population and declining birthrate are serious. Starting in 2022, the population born as baby boomers on the mainland enters retirement age. From now on, the average number of new people entering the elderly cohort will exceed 22 million per year, and the average annual net increase in the elderly population will be close to 11 million, which means that China's aging will accelerate in the next 30 years from 2022 to 2051.

In 2023, the mainland's population has been negative for two consecutive years, and the total fertility rate is about 1.0, ranking second to last among the world's major economies. This is actually a very simple elementary school math problem, there are more and more retired old people, and there are fewer and fewer young people, even if all young people have jobs and pay social security, this model will be approaching a critical point.

What's more, some young people are now unemployed, so this tipping point will come sooner.

What to do? Delaying retirement is certainly one option, but there are two other options: open sources and reduce expenditures.

Open source is to do everything possible to create jobs, I think this is the living water, is the real open source, than the sale of state-owned assets, state-owned listed companies shares to supplement the pension is more sustainable. Employment depends on private enterprises, so we must listen to the real voice of private enterprises, why revenue is under pressure, and what needs to be done to expand the market and relieve pressure.

Also, why don't ordinary people dare to consume? Be sure to ask the real reason. Young people have the opportunity and are willing to pay social security, which is the living water of the pension pool.

The second point is to throttle, the pension pool is so big, some people have a monthly pension of tens of thousands, and some people have a pension of 200 yuan, is it really reasonable? Is it really all "pay more" and "pay more for a long time"?

Also, is it really necessary to pay that much for certain jobs? Is it possible to turn it down? When you are working, you have a high income, and of course you pay more for your pension, the key is whether this high income matches your contribution to society?

So, I once called for the monthly pension above 6,000 yuan not to rise again, yes, some people will feel unfair, but this is a very small number of people, in order to maintain the stability of the whole pool, everyone has to make some concessions.

Is it really good that the subway is full of old people and young people who are hanging their heads every morning?

Once again, we call on people with high pensions not to increase their pensions, and people with low pensions can continue to rise, especially farmers, who should give them a rapid increase and double the increase.

Let the young and middle-aged take a breather, they can't support so many people with high pensions.

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