Supercomputer predicts the probability of winning the Copa America: Argentina has a large lead over Brazil

The Great Sage flirted with the ball

2024-06-19 12:16Published in Beijing

Argentina are the defending champions of the Copa America and the World Cup, and still have a strong squad that includes a number of well-known stars such as Lionel Messi, Di Maria, Sergio Romero, De Paul, Enzo and Lautaro. The Oddspedia supercomputer predicts a 43.8% probability that they will defend the Copa America. 

Since the 2022 World Cup, Argentina have maintained a very good record, losing just one of their 11 matches so far last year, a 2-0 defeat to Uruguay in the World Qualifiers last November.

Therefore, it is not surprising that Argentina is widely fancied. But it was still a shock that they had a big lead over their old rivals Brazil, who finished second. Brazil has only a 15.4 per cent chance of winning the title, nearly 30 percentage points behind Argentina (28.4 per cent).

The Samban have the likes of Vinicius, Rodrygo and Endrick and the likes of Raphinha, Martinelli and Guimaraes, but they are not their strongest squad.

Brazil's underrating stems from a poor run in 2023, when they lost four games, including a three-game losing streak at the end of the year, which was previously very rare. However, under the leadership of new coach Júnior, they have regained their form since the beginning of the year, remaining unbeaten in four games (two wins, two draws).

If there is any team that can prevent Argentina from successfully defending their title, it can only be Brazil. The other two South American powerhouses, Uruguay and Colombia, have a 7.6% and 3.2% chance of winning the title, respectively, in fourth and seventh place. The most surprising was that Mexico was in 3rd place with 10.4% and the host United States team was in 5th place with 4.7%.

The remaining teams in the top 10 are Ecuador (3.7%), Chile (2.6%), Peru (1.9%) and Canada (1.7%).

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