The county is the smallest management unit in the mainland, and it can be said that it is the most essential part of the local governance that the mainland has explored for thousands of years, and has always assumed the role of supporting the big city
Entering the modern society, the county has ushered in a new breakthrough, in addition to supplying its own young and middle-aged people, agricultural products, but also to become a dumping ground for commodities in big cities
The county, like a cow, eats grass, and even if it only drinks water, it can always squeeze out a few drops of milk
But in this downward cycle, the county seems to be unable to do more than accept its own children who have returned to their hometowns after being unemployed
1
Does the county still have purchasing power?
Now the mainland is pushing the new three, new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, in addition to photovoltaic in some rural areas vigorously laid
It is really difficult for new energy vehicles to go to the countryside
It's not that new energy vehicles are not cheap enough, but that the supporting facilities in the county are insufficient
Especially in the northern region, the winter is low, and the new energy power deficit is serious. When I went out on a snowy day, I had to find a charging pile after driving a hundred kilometers, and at this time I found that Fangyuan was dozens of miles of mountains, and I was afraid that I would be sweating at this time
On the other hand, the strength of the common people in the county has been further weakened
Back in 2008, the movement of household appliances to the countryside was in full swing, and the official speed was very fast, and the people also had money in their hands at that time
Cars and home appliances go to the countryside, and the response speed of the county is very high
Continuing this strategy today may have limited effect
Because the county really doesn't have much money
The first is the shantytown reform in 2015, when the rural areas overdrew six wallets into the county, and the cash flow was also tied to the mortgage
Secondly, urbanization has come to 66.16%, and our urbanization is only for young and middle-aged people, and the elderly are the main ones left behind in the countryside, which causes the urbanization on paper to be far lower than the actual situation
With more than 70% of urbanization, most of the county's consumption capacity has been supplied, and there is little left
Then there is the war of attrition in the past three years, which has made people with unstable incomes unable to afford large-scale consumption after three years of old capital
2
Consumption in the county is too high
When I say consumption here, I mean the sinking of excess capacity in large cities
Various FMCG brands, milk tea, coffee, online shopping, and online shopping continue to penetrate downward
There are also high-speed railways, high-speeds, and municipal buildings based on iron public foundations
County residents have the most ordinary income, but they have to bear the consumption of first-tier cities
Funds from the county are further concentrated in large cities
After the real estate crisis, the county's finances were tight, and the most stable incomes such as civil servants, teachers, and doctors also felt the crisis
Consumer demand has been further reduced, and the county's funds are slowly drying up
On the one hand, the county capital is sucked away by these big cities, and the money from the big cities is getting less and less
Fewer people are returning to their hometowns, and more and more people are buying houses in provincial capitals
A steady stream of college students who continue to enter the city will basically not return to their hometowns after graduation
3
At this time, a national campaign to reduce the burden is needed
Residents' incomes are generally declining, debts are high, and assets in their hands are still depreciating, so how dare everyone spend
In the past, path dependence included the release of production capacity to the vast rural areas, but now it seems that the county has completely lost its vitality and does not have the ability to support the big cities, so new ideas are needed
A nationwide campaign to reduce the burden is imminent, similar to Japan's efforts to solve the crisis and transfer its debts in the last century
Or the Western model of throwing money
The current price increase behavior is more like a threat to everyone
In fact, whether people dare to consume or not, one looks at the confidence, and the other looks at the expectations
You have to have money in your hands, and secondly, you have to be hopeful about the future
Otherwise, even if we continue to release water and increase prices in various ways, we will only continue to reduce our desire to consume
The birth rate will also continue to decline