Match 1: Scotland vs Switzerland
Match analysis: Scotland are trying to regain their pride in Cologne's Euro 2024 Group A tie against Switzerland after suffering their biggest defeat in the opening round of the European Championship in Germany.
After Steve Clarke's side were humiliated by hosts Germany with a score of 1-5, Switzerland managed to avoid the same fate by beating Hungary 3-1.
The Scottish game was a hot topic before Scotland had the honour of kicking off the first game of this year's European Championships, but the celebrations of their enthusiastic fans were quickly curtailed as an attacking Germans tore Clark's side to shreds in Munich.
Wirtz, Musiala, Kai Havertz, Phil Krueger and Emre Can all set up Germany against Scotland, with Musiala breaking down the right after successive breakaways, Kimmich's cross sent chaos in the box, and Porteus's flying tackle on Gundogan's rebound resulted in a red dot set. Kai Havertz converted the penalty home as Germany won 3-0 with Scotland and Scotland with just 10 men remaining.
Antonio Rudiger's own goal did spark some excitement in the Scottish side, but Emre Can's long-range strike quickly restored Germany's four-goal lead and ensured Scotland fell victim to the biggest ever opening win at the European Championships.
After Friday's punishing defeat, Scotland are already fourth in Group A standings, and regardless of the score of the match between Germany and Hungary, Scotland will be excluded from the race for the top two if they lose, and will suffer the same fate more or less because of a draw, but Clark's side still have 180 minutes to save their European Championships.
Of course, a third-place finish would be enough for Scotland to progress to the round of 16, but recent levels of performance could put that idea to waste; Clark's side have claimed just one win in their last 10 matches in all competitions and are still waiting for their first European Cup win since the turn of the millennium.
And manager Clarke was able to find a solution to the biggest question mark hanging over Scotland's head is just one example of the excellent work he has done since taking over from Alex McLesh in 2019. The former West Brom manager, who is a student of Chelsea's Jose Mourinho, once praised his 'football mind', is pragmatic and insists his team is well organised. And, for the most part, during his tenure, the players also liked him, which shows that he is a great communicator.
Clarke will be hoping to learn from the heavy defeat to Germany last time out as Scotland have been handed a very difficult group. They will next have to take on experienced Switzerland and a revived Hungary.
Clarke felt four points would be enough to advance to the knockout stages. Is this really an insurmountable task for the Scottish team? Probably not, especially if they have experienced coaches at their disposal.
Why Scotland won
Scotland excelled against more modest teams and passed the ball farther. If they follow that plan in this game, and Scotland should do the same, then Switzerland could be in trouble. Switzerland trailed Romania in second place in qualifying, thanks to Romania's strategy of passing the ball far and crossing into the box. Romania scored two such goals to beat Switzerland in a crucial match. Scotland's strategy against substitute Spain in qualifying was to play 2-3-5 and play plenty of balls into the box. Switzerland would do well to hope they can correct their problems from qualifying, because if they don't, Scotland will take advantage of that.
While Scotland had a mediocre performance at the Allianz Arena, Switzerland deservedly scored twice against Hungary, with two first-time goalscorers Dua and Abischer ensuring their quick start would be duly rewarded.
However, Murat Yakin's side made a mistake in the second half that allowed Volgao to make it 2-1 with a pass from Szobosloy, but the Swiss restored a two-goal lead in stoppage time through a brilliant strike from Embolo.
The Monaco player's goal undoubtedly delighted Swiss fans and neutral crowds alike, as it was his first appearance since the 2022 World Cup due to an anterior cruciate ligament injury and muscle problems, having played just five Ligue 1 games in 2023-24.
Thanks to the efforts of the likes of Embolo, second-placed Switzerland will secure a top-two finish in Wednesday's victory before taking on Germany in their final group stage game, with Jakin's side grateful to take their feet off the pedal if possible.
Losing just one of their last 15 matches and winning three of their last four matches has given the Swiss a solid foundation against Scotland, who have not dealt with Scotland since their 3-1 friendly victory in 2006, when Kenny Miller's attack was useless.
—— Why Switzerland Wins ——
Scotland won't be a perfect tactical duel for Switzerland, but their elite goalkeepers should be enough to put them ahead of Scotland in this one. Sommer or Cordale should be able to thwart any Scottish attack on them, and their attack will take advantage of Scotland's shortcomings. Switzerland have plenty of experience in attack, with Xhaka from Bayer Leverkusen set to break down the Scottish defence. Switzerland averaged 2.55 expected goals in qualifying, which gives them the chance to score more goals in Scotland.
When playing against teams that aren't the best in the world, Scotland have a completely different style. Switzerland is a good team, but it can be assumed that Switzerland will fall into the category of "not one of the best" for them. Scotland have stubborn pressure against these teams and Switzerland can capitalise on that. However, we'll see how Scotland scored two goals in their two games against Spain in qualifying, but the other games were a lot of goals. Scotland will play the ball over wide areas and try to overload it with plenty of crosses. Switzerland struggled to defend the cross, but it wasn't enough for Switzerland to lose the game.
If we follow the playbook of the Scottish qualifiers, this one has a good chance of scoring more than 3 goals. In this game, Scotland should be able to score one goal against this Swiss defence, but the Swiss team should be able to score two or three goals themselves. Switzerland averaged 2.55 expected goals in qualifying.
Against Germany, the Scottish attackers barely saw the ball, thanks in part to the excellent performance of the German team, partly because the Scottish team was always rough with the ball and a resilient Swiss team did not concede too much possession.
While it was true that Jakin's men fell short asleep against Hungary, their three points were deserved and can only be assumed that Switzerland would lock up their top-two spots while inflicting the familiar European Championship pain on Scotland.
Recommend:
Look for Switzerland to win 0-2 0-3 1-3