At present, the Shanghai Composite Index has fluctuated below 3100 points for 12 days, and in the 12-day trend, the Shanghai Composite Index has maintained a rebound and continued to fall, and has also been sideways for a week at 3000 points, which has cooled investors' enthusiasm for participating in the stock market.
Failure to find support at 3,000 may magnify the short-term risk of the stock market. Fortunately, Hong Kong stocks have started a big rally, and the Hang Seng Index has broken away from the previous decline and is showing signs of returning to the upward trend under the rise of blue-chip weights such as large technology stocks.
If Hong Kong stocks can rise sharply, the risk of A-shares will not increase. The reason for this is that both Hong Kong stocks and A-shares have many of the same blue-chip weighted companies. They are listed on the A-share market and are also listed on the Hong Kong stock market, which is expected to enhance the positive sentiment of the A-share market under the counteroffensive of the Hong Kong stock market.
How will the A-share market fluctuate later?
2 messages coming
Message one,
The second main line of this year's A-shares is out, the first main line is the high-dividend sector, and the second main line is likely to be the blue-chip weight of the technology sector.
The reason for this is that the electronics sector has been rising for 6 days, with 480 electronic constituents rising by more than 9%, and 44 stocks having a daily limit.
In addition, northbound funds have strong confidence in increasing their holdings in technology stocks such as semiconductors, and northbound has invested 30.2 billion yuan in the electronics sector.
This year, the banking sector is the first position to increase its holdings in the north, buying more than 53 billion yuan, if the electronics sector continues to increase its holdings, it may also be the same as the banking sector, and it is hoped that it will become the second main line this year.
It can be seen that if the blue-chip weight of the technology sector is actively participated by foreign capital, whether it is the second main line or not, there is already the participation of medium and long-term funds, which will strengthen the frequent arrival of structural opportunities in the stock market.
In particular, the current market value of northbound positions has changed greatly, from automobiles and media to reduce positions, and the top five positions are concentrated in food and beverage, electronics, banking and other industries.
This also reveals that foreign investors in the current stock market position are reducing their holdings in high-level sectors and concentrating on low-level sectors with good fundamentals.
Peony believes that talking about the stock market from the position changes of northbound funds, it can be understood that the three major stock indexes are sluggish in the short term, but the structural bull market will not change, which will also become the theme of the stock market fluctuations later.
Message two,
The recent positive statements from the management are positive news for the stock market. Peony sorted out a few points, including providing more favorable support for investors to obtain compensation relief, attracting more medium and long-term capital into the capital market, and strengthening the supervision of high-frequency quantitative trading, all of which are good.
Peony believes that the management has released a lot of good news, and there may be better measures to come. At present, many A-share listed companies have been delisted, and it is difficult for investors to obtain compensation, so if more favorable support can be provided, the rights and interests of investors can be protected, and investment confidence in the stock market can also be enhanced.
In addition, the turnover of A-shares is now decreasing, and if more medium and long-term funds can participate, the stock market can support at 3,000 points, which may be the low point of this adjustment.
The reason for this is that the stock market lacks funds, and the rise requires over-the-counter funds to enter the market, and more than 700 billion yuan of funds per day will not continue to rise. If it can attract medium and long-term capital investment, A-shares will accelerate the start of the second wave of upward movement, and many sectors can also break away from short-term declines.
More importantly, this time it also talked about strengthening the supervision of high-frequency quantification, which is likely to affect the market behind the stock market and the confidence of investors behind. If the confidence in the stock market is restored, the enthusiasm of bullish and long-term investors increases, and A-shares will break through to a new high after 3174 points this year.
In mid-to-late June, A-shares may repeat their 22-year history?
From the news 1, the stock market currently has a main line, and a second main line is still being generated, indicating that the sentiment of A-shares is recovering.
In particular, the rise in the high-dividend sector could provide support for the Shanghai Composite Index. The rise in the technology sector is expected to enhance the investment enthusiasm of the GEM, and they have become the main line behind, and A-shares will not continue to fall.
News 2 shows that the management continues to release good news, but the confidence of the three major stock indexes is very slow to recover, so that the stock market has no sustained upward trend after the good news comes, and the short-term has also started to rise and fall. It is clear that the impact of good news is still brewing.
Peony expects that in mid-to-late June, A-shares may repeat their 22-year history. The stock market in '22 rose in June and July, and even the stock market in '23 fell first and then rose in June and July.
The stock market was rising when it fell in the previous 2 years, and the subsequent market is expected to repeat the 22-year market, and it will climb again after the short-term adjustment in June.
The content does not constitute investment advice, peony investment ideas for reference, thank you for lighting up your little thumb!