French President Emmanuel Macron announced on the 9th that the National Assembly elections for the lower house will be held in advance in the next 30 days, the first round will be held on June 30, and the second round will be held on July 7. A far-right or far-left-led government may be on the horizon in France. This will be an extremely crucial election for France after World War II, which is being thrown into the unknown.
Emmanuel Macron's ruling Renaissance party suffered a crushing defeat in the European Parliament elections, and France's far-right party, the Rassemblement Nationale (RN), won more than twice as many votes as Macron's centrist coalition. Macron announced on the 9th that the National Assembly elections for the lower house of representatives will be held in advance, and three main political blocs have been formed.
Macron's speculation is that the National Alliance's votes in the European Parliament are exaggerated protest votes. However, it is often a matter of dynamics, and now French voters seem determined to change, and they do not believe that Macron has lowered inflation and unemployment in France, nor that he has limited energy bills during and long after the pandemic.
The far-right and far-left are leading the polls
The far-right National Rally (RN) is leading the polls, followed by the New Popular Front, a coalition of left-wing parties, both of which could mean extremist politics, economic populism, and financial instability. Macron's allies are increasingly concerned about a possible crushing defeat in the general election, with one minister telling The Economist: "He sacrificed us."
Marine Le Pen's National Alliance currently holds only 88 seats out of 577 seats in the National Assembly, and according to the latest poll results released by the French Polling Institute (Ifop) on the 15th, the National Alliance's support is 35%, which will lead the first round of voting, while other polls show that the party's support is 30%. The split center-right Republican Party (LR), which currently holds 61 seats in the National Assembly, is currently polling 7% and many Republicans are working with the National Alliance, allowing the party to break the blockade and never be confined by the mainstream.
On top of that, voters no longer seem to be ashamed or nervous about supporting the National Alliance. Back in December 2023, for the first time, the number of respondents who considered the National Alliance to be a "threat to democracy" (41%) was lower than the number of respondents who believed that it would not pose a "threat to democracy" (45%), and Le Pen's party was beaming with the joy of victory.
In the same poll, the Left Alliance of the Communist Party, the Greens, the PS and the far-left party La France insoumise led by Jean-Luc Melenchon was 9 percentage points behind the National Alliance, with the Baath Party-led centrist in third place with 19% support.
Theoretically, unless a candidate receives more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round of voting, a candidate who receives the support of at least 12.5% of registered voters will advance to the second round of voting. The parties will make deals and join forces against their competitors.
According to the analysis of the results of the European Parliament elections on the 9th, the French media "Le Figaro" believes that in the first round of voting on June 30, the National Alliance may take first place in nearly two-thirds of the constituencies. As a result of Le Pen's efforts to make the National League more presentable and move away from its former ferocious image, the League's support base has expanded from the industrial regions of northeastern France and the south to villages and suburbs, and even Brittany in the northwest. In addition, according to this analysis, in the second round of voting, the candidate of the National Alliance will face not the candidate of the Baath Party, but the candidate of the coalition of left-wing parties. Ba'ath candidates will only enter the second round of voting in 41 constituencies, half of which are located in the Paris region.
The center-right Republican leader Eric Ciotti put forward more than 62 candidates to form an alliance with the National Alliance, a decision that led to the party holding a meeting to oust him, and a court invalidating the Republican Party's expulsion decision, allowing Zioti to claim rights to the party's logo and finances. Some Republicans have been forced to stand under the banner of the "Republican Right," and Republicans who oppose Ziodi's alliance with the National League say they will nominate nearly 400 candidates anyway.
The situation on the left is equally surreal, with electoral expediency triumphing over deep political divisions. According to the pre-election agreement announced on the 14th, the New Popular Front announced a series of populist economic policies that will reverse most of the policies since Macron came to power, including raising the minimum wage by 13% to a net income of 1,600 euros per month, lowering the legal retirement age from 64 to 60 years, capping energy prices while costs are stable, and reinstating the wealth tax, in return for which the Socialist Party promises to support Ukraine against Russia.
Behind the scenes, however, is a wrestling battle for control of this alliance. On June 14, Mélanchon disqualified three candidates he did not like for France Indomitable and replaced him with Adrien Quatennens, a close ally who had been convicted of domestic violence. François Ruffin, a member of parliament for France the Indomitable, accused the party of being "stupid" and "sectarian", declaring that the party prefers "men who beat their wives...... and not colleagues who dare to disagree with the big boss", and then Catnans stepped down.
On June 15, François Hollande, the former president of the Socialist Party, announced that he would run for Corrèze in the centre, portraying himself as a bastion against the far right, declaring that "the situation is serious". Hollande agreed to run under the leadership of the Syriza coalition, which gave legitimacy to the coalition while he sought to seize control of it.
Possible election results
The most likely outcome of this election remains the Hung Parliament (no single party has an absolute majority in Congress), with the largest party being the National Alliance. The coalition led by Macron is facing a huge defeat, and those who have spoken to Macron have revealed that he is still "scrappy" and determined not to succumb to the so-called "spirit of defeat".
Macron's supporters point out that it also takes courage to get the people to decide. But people seem to be attracted by a dégagiste (get rid of them) enthusiasm. France looks getting closer and closer to entering uncharted territory where the far-right or far-left will lead the government.
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