Hello everyone, I'm the head of the hall.
It's time to come, it's still coming.
On June 17, the Social Security Bureau officially announced that the basic pension for retirees rose by 3%.
All major platforms have been on the hot search, and when they saw the workers in the comment area, they all expressed their incomprehension.
First, he has studied hard for more than 20 years, graduated from college, and his salary is five or six thousand, which is not as good as the pension of seven or eight thousand for the older generation;
Second, the pension that rises every year is in strong contrast with the salary of workers who are now falling instead of rising......
There are many things, which have made everyone gear up.
I know you're in a hurry, but please don't rush.
Let's talk about this today.
However, "who pays for the pension?" Why is it going up? Which province has the largest pension gap? As well as the aging of society, the decline in the birth rate, the negative population growth, and the delay in retirement and other acute issues involved in the rise of pensions, I will not talk about it.
I've talked to you about the video before, of course, it's not surprising, some have been restricted, and some have been directly 404.
This issue mainly talks about two topics,
The first: why is this increase of 3% and what is the range of the pension increase rate?
Second: in the face of the pressure of pensions rising year by year, where should young people go?
First of all, let's talk about what is the range of pension growth rate.
Tracing back to the source, the rise in pensions began in 2005 with the "Decision of the State Council on Improving the Basic Pension Insurance System for Enterprise Employees".
The 2005 Decision clearly called for ensuring that basic pensions are paid in full and on time as a top priority.
So the following year, in 2006, pensions rose by a record 23%.
Until 2014, pensions rose by more than 10% every year.
According to official data,
From 2006 to 2024, our pension has risen for 20 consecutive years.
Combined with the growth rate of GDP, it can be seen that:
The increase in pension is roughly consistent with the annual GDP growth rate.
But it is still a bit arbitrary to judge the pension growth rate only by the GDP growth rate.
For example, the pension growth rate has entered the single-digit era since 2014, and GDP has not grown in double digits since 2008.
Obviously, from 2008 to 2014, the growth rate of pensions was higher than the GDP growth rate.
I went to the official website of the Bureau of Statistics again to see the annual wage growth rate:
Prior to 2009, only labor wages in state-owned units were counted.
Since 2009, the private sector has also been included in the statistical survey of labour wages.
In contrast, it is concluded that the pension growth rate is within the range of the nominal growth rate of the average annual wage.
What is the nominal growth rate? That is, before deducting prices, that is, the CPI index.
The consumer price index (CPI) is the inflation rate of the year.
My personal understanding:
The upper limit of the pension rate is the nominal annual average wage growth rate for each year.
The lower limit of the pension increase rate is the inflation rate set at the beginning of each year.
You see, the 3% increase in pensions this time is precisely the goal mentioned during the two sessions: the goal of achieving 3% in the price level in 2024.
From this point of view, referring to the CPI statistics of previous years, the pension will rise by 3% in 2024 - this is the first time that the rate of increase has been pulled down to the same as the "predicted CPI" data.
Why do I say projected inflation?
For example, at the beginning of 2023, the target was to increase consumer prices by about 3%.
As a result, it ended up by only 0.2%.
Now "about 3%" has become the target to be completed in 2024.
As for whether it is 3% in the end, that's another story.
I saw many people say that inflation this year must be the same as last year, and it will not rise by 3% in the end.
But in any case, the target set at the beginning of the year was 3%.
There is another reason to announce the annual pension increase in May and June.
From a chronological point of view, it is definitely necessary to refer to the inflation target mentioned at the two sessions at the beginning of each year.
Therefore, I personally believe that the expected increase in the price level is probably the lowest range of the pension increase rate announced every year.
It is actually logical to predict the price level to determine the increase in the pension of retirees.
Let's talk about the second question: in the face of the annual increase in pensions, where should young people go?
From a macro point of view, it is inevitable to mention one word to answer this question, that is: dependency ratio.
That is, how many working workers do you need to support an elderly person.
Sanlian Life Weekly reported that the current pension ratio in the mainland is nearly three people supporting one person, and it is expected that by about 2050, it may reach a dependency ratio of 1 to 1.
In other words, now there are 3 young people to support an old man.
In the future, it is a young man who will raise an old man.
It can be seen that the burden on young people will become bigger and bigger.
However, the macro individual can not be changed, I want to talk about the micro level, now many young people are also worried about their own pension problems, here are two ideas for you:
One is to build your own working "moat".
Some time ago, I chatted with my old classmates and talked about the current situation of my classmates, except for the "second generation" who inherited the family business, they all had a common characteristic, that is, they had established their own work "moat".
In fact, most of the classmates have similar backgrounds: they come from rural areas, young people in small towns, ordinary families, no money, and no connections.
Now it's okay, at the beginning, I relied on my own "professional", started to work, accumulated experience, met some people, and silently cultivated for many years, so I had a "moat" and had a certain reputation in the industry.
Of course, the situation in which I graduated was very different from the current graduation environment.
I often say that if I graduate this year, as an ordinary undergraduate student, I may really only have a yellow robe (Meituan takeaway).
But in any case, it is recommended that ordinary people focus on "professionalism", which is what you are good at.
For example, if you can speak a foreign language, shoot a book, write calligraphy, or be familiar with a certain industry skill, etc.
- As long as you are a little more powerful than ordinary people, then you can start to build your own moat.
If you're lucky enough to retire at 65 before you see Marx
Even if the pension is not enough, you can become a "rehired" person through the moat and give full play to your residual heat!
Second, build some financial mindset.
For example, the "4% rule" – a theory proposed by William Bangen, a scholar at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in 1994:
No more than 4% of the annual pension is withdrawn to cover living needs, and the pension will not be spent until death.
If your annual expenses are 50,000 yuan, then 50,000 yuan divided by 4% is 1.2 million, then your personal retirement asset standard is 1.2 million.
At this time, there are two conditions: one is the principal, and the other is 4% income.
If you don't have the principal, you can honestly earn the principal through the "moat".
As for the 4% return, to be honest, there are so many financial management tools now, both local and foreign. As long as you are not greedy, there is a high probability that it can still be achieved.
Don't see Buffett earning more than 20% a year, and you will be greedy.
Some people are really weird.
I'd rather be all in the stock market in the short term and make a big deal than look at the long-term 4% gain.
Having said that, according to the practice of other financial bloggers, it should be said like this:
Family! Don't want 9999, don't want 999, you only need to pay 99 yuan - do you think the hall is going to cut leeks?
Actually, no, I've talked about it many times, I'm just a grandma with a macro interpretation.
Combined with the two points mentioned above, the logic is actually very simple:
When you are young, build your principal through a moat, and learn some basic investment thinking, don't compare yourself with professional investors, don't be greedy, and then when you are old, let the principal generate income to cover your expenses.
Of course, if you are the "stock god" who punched Soros and kicked Warren Buffett in front of the video, and you have to call your father when you see you in the financial crisis, then you will treat me as a fart and be a happy person~
Some students may say, I don't have a moat now, I'm not interested in anything, I don't have the principal, and I'm still looking for a job, so what should I do?
My advice, in fact, is very simple, just one: don't let yourself be idle, try to find something to do.
What are you looking for to do? Anything goes.
Reading books is too pretty, so just let go of meditation, in short, let yourself jump out of the current state of idleness.
I used to have a gap period when I didn't do anything, I just did one thing: I went for a run every day, and then I ran my first marathon, and of course the last marathon.
Did running generate any financial benefits for me? Actually, not a dime.
However, going out for a run is also better than staying at home and doing nothing every day.
People are like refrigerators, you are always empty, in fact, they consume more electricity.
I'm the hall master, I hope the content is helpful to you, and we'll see you next time~