Ren Zeping: Does the policy of encouraging childbirth really work?

Zeping macro

2024-06-20 07:27Posted in Beijing Finance and Economics Creators

Text: Ren Zeping's team

Guide

In 2023, China's total fertility rate will be around 1.0, the second lowest among the world's major economies.

There is currently a view that encouraging childbearing is useless and will not work. Is this really the case?

With the low birthrate and aging population in Western countries, the family policy has gradually changed from welfare support to encouraging childbirth, and through policies such as family subsidies, tax incentives, maternity leave, childcare services, and mothers' work assistance, the cost of family childbirth and parenting education has been reduced, family harmony has been promoted, and fertility willingness has been boosted.

OECD countries can be broadly divided into three categories according to fertility support policies and fertility trends:

First, represented by France and Sweden, countries with early implementation of fertility support policies, perfect support systems, and high support, the total fertility rate has rebounded in recent years and has been maintained above 1.6.

The second is represented by Germany, a country that began to develop family policies in the 90s of the 20th century, promote equality between husband and wife, ensure women's employment, and the total fertility rate has risen from below 1.3 to about 1.6.

Third, represented by Japan and South Korea, fertility support is insufficient, the traditional family model is solidified, and the total fertility rate has dropped to below 1.3.

Enlightenment: It is urgent to fully liberalize and encourage childbirth, and accelerate the construction of a childbirth support system. The first is to fully liberalize childbearing and fully respect the fertility wishes of each family. The second is to vigorously issue birth subsidies, and it is recommended that the national level introduce a birth subsidy policy, and distribute 1,000-6,000 yuan per month for each child. The third is to implement differentiated individual income tax deductions and housing purchase subsidies. Fourth, increase the supply of childcare services and provide subsidies for intergenerational care. Fifth, improve the protection of women's employment rights and interests, and accelerate the construction of a reasonable and effective sharing mechanism for the cost of childbirth among the state, enterprises and families. Sixth, establish a social support system for gender equality, such as equal parental leave for men and women. Seventh, strengthen the protection of equal rights to give birth out of wedlock. Eighth, support assisted reproduction and issue assisted reproduction subsidies.

It is believed that after a series of long-term and short-term measures, China's fertility rate will definitely bottom out, and the population structure is expected to gradually improve, so as to achieve long-term healthy and balanced population development.

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1 Which is the most effective way to encourage childbearing - "maternity subsidy + gender equality"

1.1 The development of family policy: from welfare support to encouraging childbearing

In order to encourage fertility and maintain the normal replacement level of the population, most developed countries in the West have incorporated fertility support policies into family policies.

First, the early family welfare policies mainly involved pension, medical care, unemployment, etc., usually with assistance and welfare colors, mainly through the use of welfare policy means to alleviate social poverty, improve the welfare level and quality of life of citizens, and birth support is not the main content.

Second, in the sixties and seventies of the 20th century, due to the demographic transition and changes in family patterns, family policies paid more attention to population development while ensuring family welfare, paid attention to encouraging childbirth, and reduced the cost of family childbirth and education and promoted family harmony through policy support such as family subsidies, tax incentives, maternity leave, childcare services, and mothers' work assistance. Most Western countries have basically completed the demographic transition, which is manifested in low birth rate, low growth rate, low fertility rate, and at the same time, affected by factors such as changes in social ideology, women's social status has improved, family functions have weakened, and the number of births outside of marriage has increased, and the divorce rate has increased. Since then, a large number of family forms such as "empty nest families", "single-parent families" and "unmarried mothers" have emerged, the contradiction between family and work has become increasingly prominent, and the traditional family model has gradually weakened.

Third, after the 90s of the 20th century, in order to cope with the low fertility rate, the number of countries that implemented policies to encourage childbearing increased rapidly. According to the United Nations World Population Policy Database, 9% of countries implemented fertility policies in 1976, this figure has become 14% in 1996, and about 28% of countries in 2019 are trying to increase fertility, mainly in high-income developed countries.

1.2 OECD Experience: What is the most effective way to encourage childbearing? The result?

With the demographic transition and the change of family patterns, the goal of family welfare policy in Western countries has gradually shifted to focus on fertility support. In 1919, the International Labour Organization (ILO) issued three major initiatives, namely "12 weeks of leave, job protection, and income compensation", which laid down the basic norms for the fertility policies of OECD countries. The framework of fertility support policies in OECD countries is generally similar, but the effects are differentiated due to different measures and different support levels, which can be roughly divided into three categories according to fertility support policies and fertility trends:

First, represented by France and Sweden, the fertility support policy was implemented earlier, the support system is perfect, and the support is relatively high, and the total fertility rate has rebounded in recent years and has been maintained above 1.6;

Second, represented by Germany, in the 90s of the 20th century, it began to develop family policies to promote equality between husband and wife, ensure women's employment, and the total fertility rate rose from below 1.3 to about 1.6;

Third, represented by Japan and South Korea, fertility support is insufficient, the traditional family model is solidified, and the total fertility rate has dropped to below 1.3.

The policy system of OECD countries to encourage childbirth is often based on the establishment of special institutions, and the policies mainly include providing equal maternity leave for men and women, increasing economic subsidies (cash, tax exemptions), providing childcare services, and promoting gender equality in employment. A number of countries have set up special family affairs departments, such as Germany, which established the German Ministry for Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth in 1995, and the United Kingdom, which established a special family policy unit in the Ministry of the Interior in 1997. China has established a National Family Planning Commission to control the population since 1981, and in 2013 it became the National Health and Family Planning Commission, and in 2018 it became the National Health Commission. The main policies for fertility support are as follows.

First, improve the leave system. In 2022, the average maternity leave and parental leave for women in OECD countries was 18.5 weeks and 32.3 weeks for women, while paternity leave and 8.1 weeks for men were 2.3 weeks. Parental leave is generally used after maternity leave and is longer. The average total leave of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries is 30.3 weeks for women and 6.3 weeks for men, of which Estonia and Hungary are among the top 85 weeks and 68 weeks. Ireland and Australia are at the bottom of the rankings with 8.0 weeks and 7.7 weeks respectively.

Improving the sharing of parental leave between men and women can encourage couples to share family and childcare responsibilities and help to reduce the gap between men and women when it comes to childbearing. The correlation between women's leave length and fertility rate is weak, because there is a contradiction between extending women's leave time and protecting their employment rights. Excessive maternity leave may expose women to greater discrimination and exclusion in the workplace, raising barriers to employment and reducing career advancement opportunities. Therefore, the guarantee of women's leave must be carried out in parallel with the measures to regulate the labor market, strengthen the protection of women's labor rights and interests, and improve the paternity system. For example, France has 5 weeks of male paternity and 26 weeks of male parental leave, and countries such as Denmark and Sweden in Northern Europe have longer shared leave for both parents.

Second, to provide economic subsidies, the proportion of household welfare expenditure to GDP in OECD countries was about 2.29% in 2019, and there is a certain positive correlation between the proportion of household welfare expenditure and fertility level. Family welfare subsidies include cash payments, tax deductions, etc. In 2019, except for Turkey and Mexico, the proportion of household welfare expenditure to GDP was 1%-4%, with an average of 2.3%, of which France had the highest proportion of 3.4%, and Turkey had the lowest proportion of 0.5%. Countries with a higher share of household welfare spending have higher fertility levels. For example, in France, the share of household cash benefit expenditure in 2019 was 3.44%, and the total fertility rate was 1.83, while in South Korea, the share of household welfare expenditure was 1.56%, and the total fertility rate in 2021 was 0.92 (0.72 in 2023).

Third, a large number of childcare institutions have been built, and the average childcare rate of 0-2 year olds in OECD countries in 2020 is 36%, and the higher the childcare rate, the higher the fertility rate. Most OECD countries support childbearing through the establishment of new childcare institutions by the government and encourage the development of private childcare institutions, with the majority of OECD countries having a childcare rate of 10%-70% between 0-2 years old in 2020, with an average of 36.0%. In addition, countries such as Singapore and Australia have also introduced policies to encourage grandparents to take care of their children from one generation to another generation to reduce parental pressure. In recent years, Japan and South Korea have vigorously supported childcare and provided almost free childcare, and the childcare enrollment rate has increased from 25.3% and 38.2% in 2010 to 41.3% and 65.2% in 2019, respectively, but the low fertility situation has not been reversed.

Fourth, strengthen the protection of women's employment rights and reduce gender discrimination in the workplace. The smaller the employment gap between men and women, the higher the fertility rate. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries attach great importance to the protection of women's employment rights, such as the public service led by the Swedish government to provide a large number of jobs for women, and Germany, South Korea, Japan, and Singapore all provide training for postpartum women's reemployment. From 2002 to 2021, the gap between men and women in the labor force participation rate of OECD countries decreased from 17.0% to 10.5%, and the gender pay gap decreased from 17.7% to 12.0%. In general, the smaller the employment gap and the smaller the wage gap between men and women, it means that women's employment rights are better protected and their fertility rates are higher. For example, in 2021, Sweden's gap between men and women in the labor force participation rate was 4.1%, the wage gap was 7.4%, and the total fertility rate was 1.7, while the gap between the male and female labor force participation rate in South Korea was 17.5%, the wage gap was 31.1%, and the total fertility rate was less than 1. The gap between men and women in the labor force participation rate is 12.6 percent, the wage gap is 22.1 percent, and the total fertility rate is 1.3.

2 Exploration of international experience: fertility support policies and effects

2.1 France: Actively promote the balance between family and work, and the total fertility rate of 1.8 is among the highest in developed countries

France has been encouraging childbearing since before World War II, and has achieved a balance between work and family through a well-developed and meticulous subsidy system, diversified childcare services, and a family-friendly corporate atmosphere, with a total fertility rate of 1.8 in 2021. At the beginning of the 18th century, France was the most populous country in Europe, but as the birth rate continued to decline, the population of France increased slightly from 38.48 million to 39.23 million from 1901 to 1911, falling to the fifth place in Europe. As early as 1920, France introduced the "Anti-Abortion Law" to curb the decline in the birth rate. The promulgation of the Family Code in 1939 was the source of French family policy. Since then, France has continuously introduced and improved policies to encourage childbirth and achieved results. According to the World Bank, France's total fertility rate was 2.74 in 1960, fell to 1.93 in 1975, below the replacement level, and further decreased to 1.66 in 1993, a record low, and increased to 2.0 in 2010, but due to uncertainties such as high inflation, global geopolitical turmoil, and the decrease in women of childbearing age in recent years, France's fertility rate has rebounded to about 1.8, which is still among the top in developed countries.

France's maternity support policies are as follows: First, guaranteed holidays, with 16 weeks of maternity leave, 25 days of paternity leave and one year of shared parental leave for couples. Maternity leave has been in place since 1910. According to the official website of the French government, France currently has 16 weeks of maternity leave, including 6 weeks of prenatal leave and 10 weeks of postnatal leave. In the case of a large number of children or multiple births, maternity leave can be up to 46 weeks. During maternity leave, the employer is not obliged to pay the salary, and the French Social Security Institute pays all the payments. The exact amount depends on the salary of the person on leave, and the leave allowance is calculated by dividing the employee's total salary for the last three months before the maternity leave by 91.5, and the daily wage cannot exceed 89.03 euros or be less than 9.66 euros. After the maternity leave ends, the employee's salary cannot be changed, and if there is a salary increase during the maternity leave, then the mother should also have a salary increase when she returns to work. With regard to paternity leave, in September 2020 the French government extended the duration of paternity leave to 25 days, including 4 days of mandatory leave after childbirth and 21 days of leave for 6 months after childbirth, and in the case of multiple births, to 28 days, during which the same daily allowance is paid as maternity leave. In addition, French parents can also enjoy an additional year of parental leave, which can be extended up to two times. During this period, parents receive a basic allowance of around 400 euros per month.

Second, economic subsidies will be issued, covering birth, parenting, childcare, and loss of parents' income. At present, France has established a relatively complete and diversified subsidy system, covering the birth, upbringing, childcare, and subsidies for parents' income loss, and the amount of subsidies varies significantly according to family income and the number of children. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, in 2019, France spent 3.4% of GDP on household welfare, ranking first among OECD countries and higher than the OLED national average of 2.3%. From the perspective of funding sources, family welfare in France is included in the social security system, and the source of funds is mainly social security contributions, supplemented by state finance and social donations. According to the data of the French Family Allowance Agency, the sources of funding for family benefits in 2018 were social contributions, state and departmental reimbursements, and taxes, with the proportions of 34%, 43%, and 23%, respectively.

Third, improve the childcare service system. France has a complete system of childcare services, including collective reception institutions such as collective nurseries, family reception institutions such as kindergarten assistants, family care such as nannies, entertainment receptionists, etc. Either way, the French Family Allowance Fund provides financial support, and if a nanny is hired to take care of the children at home, the employer will have to pay at least 15% of the cost. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, in 2020 France had a childcare rate of 58.1% for children aged 0-2, ranking sixth among all OECD countries and higher than the OECD national average of 36%.

Fourth, big businesses work together to create a family-friendly business atmosphere. In 2012, about 400 large companies in France signed the "Corporate Parent Employee Charter", covering about 3 million employees, accounting for about 10% of the workforce, and establishing flexible working hours and minimum working hours for employees; Oppose the workaholic corporate culture, refuse to work long hours and overtime; Promote the promotion of female employees; Promote fathers to use paternity leave with full pay, etc. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the gap in France's labor force participation rate in 2021 was only 5.5 percent, less than the 10.5 percent average for OECD countries, and the gender wage gap was 11.8 percent, less than the 12 percent average for OECD countries.

Fifth, immigrants account for about 10 percent, of which 41 percent come from Africa, which also plays a role in increasing France's fertility rate. According to Statistics France, there were about 7 million immigrants in France in 2022, and the proportion of the total population rose from 5% and 7.4% in 1946 and 1975 to 10.3% in 2022. Of these, 48.2 per cent of immigrants living in France are from Africa and 32.2 per cent from Europe. Immigrants from Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia accounted for 12.5%, 11.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the high fertility rate of immigrants in North Africa played a non-negligible role in the rebound of France's fertility rate. In addition, immigrants in France have progressed from male-dominated to female-dominated, with the proportion of female immigrants rising from 44% to 52% between 1968 and 2022.

2.2 Germany: Encourage men and women to share childcare responsibilities and increase childbearing support, with the fertility rate increasing significantly in recent years, reaching more than 1.5

Since the beginning of the 21st century, Germany has attached great importance to population issues, learned from the Nordic countries, and vigorously increased fertility support, and the total fertility rate has increased to more than 1.5. After World War I, as a result of the Nazi government's aggressive population policy, Germany's population increased by 5.2% between 1939 and 1933. Population growth was negative during World War II, and with the advent of the post-war baby boom, the total fertility rate increased from 2.1 to 2.5 between 1959 and 1965, during which time about 1.3 million people were born. Since then, with economic growth, the improvement of women's education level, and the change of family concept, women's fertility willingness has declined rapidly, and the total fertility rate has dropped from 2.1 to 1.29 from 1970 to 1993, and the population has ushered in negative growth. It was only after the presentation of the Bundestag's Demographic Survey Report in 2002 that German society became aware of the demographic problem. In 2003, Germany established the "Family Policy Alliance", which explicitly included demographic and labour market objectives in the family policy agenda, and the government implemented a series of stimulus programs to promote the growth of household population. In 2007, Germany began to learn from the Nordic countries to increase the flexibility of couples in receiving maternity benefits. From 2006 to 2016, Germany's total fertility rate increased from 1.3 to 1.6, and then fell slightly to 1.53 in 2021, still above 1.5.

The fertility support measures offered in Germany are as follows:

First, 14 weeks of maternity leave and parental leave equal for men and women. According to the official website of the German government, Germany currently sets 14 weeks of maternity leave, including 6 weeks before childbirth, 8 weeks after childbirth, and if it is a multiple birth, the postpartum maternity leave period is extended by 4 weeks. During maternity leave, the employee is not working, and the maternity allowance is paid by the statutory health insurance up to a maximum of 13 euros per day, and if the previous net salary is higher than 13 euros per day, the difference is paid by the employer. In addition, parents have parental leave for up to three years until the child reaches the age of three, and the labor obligation is suspended during the holiday, and the company reserves the position for the parents on leave. In addition, parents can postpone leave for up to 24 months until their child is between the ages of 3 and 8, providing a high degree of vacation flexibility. During parental leave, there are two sources of income, one is to receive a parental allowance and the other is to work part-time for no more than 32 hours per week. Parental allowance is paid at a rate of 65 per cent of the net income before birth, adjusted according to wages. In order to encourage both spouses to take care of the child together, they can also receive an additional 2-4 months of partnership bonus if both partners take care of the child after the birth and work part-time.

Second, there is the child allowance or tax relief, which currently covers all children in a monthly allowance of 250 euros (0-18 years), which covers about 37% of the cost of raising a child aged 0-18 years. From the perspective of the amount of subsidies, before 2023, according to the provisions of the German Federal Child Allowance Act, the allowance for the first and second children is 219 euros/month, the third child is 225 euros/month, and from the fourth child onwards, it is 250 euros/month per child. In 2023, the new subsidy is 250 euros per month for all children. In terms of the period of payment, the child allowance is paid from 0 to 18 years old, until the age of 21 if the child is unemployed, and until the age of 25 if the child is receiving education. Tax deductions include basic deductions (based on salary), childcare deductions (4,000 euros/child/year), tuition fee deductions (5,000 euros/child/year), deductions for hiring a nanny, etc. According to the data of the German Federal Statistical Office in 2019, it costs nearly 150,000 euros to raise a child to the age of 18, of which under 6 years old, 6-12 years old, and 12-18 years old cost 587 euros/month, 686 euros/month, and 784 euros/month respectively, and the current German child benefit is 250 euros/month, which can cover about 36.5% of the cost of raising children aged 0-18.

Third, improve childcare services, with nearly 40% of children aged 0-2 enrolled in childcare in 2020. Germany has been improving childcare and since August 2013 has been able to subsidize childcare for children over the age of one. In addition, the government has also introduced the "Nursery+" scheme to support the flexible opening hours of nurseries to meet the needs of families. Governments at all levels in Germany are also increasing their efforts to recruit and train professionals in childcare facilities through various funding programs. From 2010 to 2020, the enrollment rate of 0-2 year olds in Germany increased from 26.8% to 39.2%.

Fourth, we need to build a childbirth-friendly society, improve childbirth support, and provide support to families with children in the fields of housing, education, and social security. In the field of housing, Germany has introduced a "children's housing allowance", which allows each family to receive a subsidy of 12,000 euros per child to build or buy a house. In the field of education, Germany has abolished university tuition fees in all federal states. In the field of social security, families with children receive higher unemployment amounts than families without children; Low- and middle-income families can enjoy family joint insurance without paying insurance premiums; 23-year-old childless policyholders are required to pay a 0.25% childless surcharge on their long-term care insurance.

2.3 Japan: The traditional gender division of labor has intensified the conflict between work and family, and the total fertility rate has fallen below 1.3, falling into the "low fertility trap"

Japan has encouraged childbearing since the 90s of the 20th century, but the total fertility rate fell to 1.26 in 2022, and the low fertility rate led to the Japanese population peaking in 2008 and will be 53% lower than the peak in 2100, and the aging population is the highest in the world. Japan's total fertility rate was around 3 in 1950, continued to decline to 2.05 in 1974, and was a record low of 1.26 in 2005, before rebounding slightly to 1.4 and rapidly falling to 1.26 in 2022. Against the backdrop of a long period of low fertility, Japan's population peaked at 128 million in 2008. The Japan Statistical Yearbook predicts that Japan's population will fall to 102 million by 2050, about 20% less than its peak, and by 2100, it will fall to less than 60 million, down 53% from its peak. In addition, Japan is the country with the most serious aging population in the world, and the declining birthrate will accelerate the aging process, with the proportion of the population aged 65 and above increasing rapidly from 4.9% to 29.1% from 1950 to 2022. It is estimated that in 2050 and 2100, the proportion of Japan's population aged 65 and over will reach 37.7% and 38.3%, respectively.

Japan's family policy after World War II changed in three stages.

The first is the period from 1948 to 1970, when the population growth was controlled. From 1947 to 1949, Japan experienced its first baby boom, with a total of 8.02 million births in three years, and the birth rate rose sharply from 26.4 per thousand in 1945 to 32.9 per thousand in 1949. In 1948, the Japanese government promulgated the "Eugenics Protection Law" to implement fewer births and better childbearing, and relax the restrictions on abortion; By the end of 1948, the Japanese government had approved about 80 contraceptives, after which abortion became legal. In 1949, the Japanese House of Representatives passed the "Decision on the Population Question", which decided to improve and popularize the "family plan", distribute contraceptives and various contraceptives free of charge, and promote birth control, especially for low-income families. It should be noted that Japanese contraceptives were a popular spermicide at the time. In April 1949, Japan established the Family Planning Popularization Association, which was mainly responsible for the distribution of condoms. In 1953, Japan established the Ministry of Health and Welfare's Population Council, which was mainly responsible for popularizing and promoting birth control throughout the country.

The second is the period from 1971 to 1989, when the population size was stabilized. In 1971-1973, Japan's second baby boom appeared. In 1974, Japan's total fertility rate fell below replacement level for the first time, with the birth rate falling sharply from 19.3 per cent in 1973 to 10.3 per cent in 1989 and the natural growth rate falling from 14.1 per cent in 1972 to 3.7 per cent in 1989. In 1974, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare issued the "Japanese Population Trends - Static Population", which regarded the static population as a new strategic goal for population development.

Third, since 1990, the reproductive stage has been encouraged. In 1990, Japan's total fertility rate dropped to 1.57, which aroused widespread concern in society. The impact of the fertility rate of 1.57 made Japanese society realize the problem of low fertility and began to encourage childbirth, covering vacations, financial subsidies, and childcare care, as follows:

First, 14 weeks of maternity leave, 44 weeks of parental leave, and one year of male parental leave. According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, Japanese women can take maternity leave for 6 weeks before giving birth and 8 weeks after giving birth. During maternity leave, you will receive a maternity allowance equivalent to that before the leave. Japanese women can take 10 months of parental leave after maternity leave until the child is 1 year old; The actual allowance received during the period of parental leave can be up to 80% of the salary before the leave. In addition, Japanese men have one year of childcare leave. Men can take childcare leave during women's maternity leave, and for an additional six months if there are no vacancies in the nursery school. The allowance is 67% of the monthly salary during the childcare leave, and 50% for 6 months after the start of the childcare leave, and until the end of the childcare leave, the benefit is not subject to income tax, but also exempt from social security.

Second, families with children will be provided with a one-time maternity allowance and childcare allowance, including a one-time maternity allowance of 500,000 yen and a childcare allowance of 10,000-15,000 yen per month (for children under 15 years old), which will cover about 10% of the cost of raising children aged 0-18. From 2009 to 2011, the Japanese government implemented emergency measures to deal with the declining fertility rate, increasing the one-time birth allowance from 380,000 yen to 420,000 yen, which can be paid directly to hospitals. From the end of 2022 to the beginning of 2023, Japan's Prime Minister Kishida announced that he would increase the one-time maternity allowance to 500,000 yen (about 25,000 yuan) in 2023. The scope of the childcare allowance has gradually expanded, and the amount has been increasing, and currently eligible families receive a monthly allowance of 10,000 to 15,000 yen per child (under the age of 15). In addition, Japan introduced a subsidy for assisted reproductive treatment in 2004, increasing the subsidy amount from 100,000 yen in 2004 to 350,000-750,000 yen in 2022, and in April 2022, assisted reproduction was included in the national health plan to realize the insurance application of infertility treatment. According to public information, it costs about 20 million yen to raise a child until the age of 18 in Japan, and according to Japan's current childcare subsidy standard, childcare subsidy can only cover about 10% of the childcare cost.

Third, Japan has expanded childcare services through three "Angel Programs" and has formulated a "Zero Combat for Standby Children" program. In 1994, Japan implemented the "Angel Plan", in 1999 the "New Angel Plan", and in 2004, the third phase of the "Angel Plan" was implemented to expand childcare services. In 2001, the Japanese government formulated the "Zero Combat for Children on Standby" plan, and in 2008 the "Zero Combat for New Waiting Children" plan, with the aim of reducing the number of "children on standby" who need to enter nursery schools but have to wait in line at home due to lack of facilities and manpower.

Fourth, Japan has created a better business environment for families with children. In 1999, Japan enacted the Basic Policy on Countermeasures against a Declining Birthrate, in 2003 it enacted the Basic Law on Countermeasures against a Declining Birthrate Society, and in 2004 it formulated the Outline for Countermeasures against a Declining Birthrate Society. If the employee has a child under the age of 3, he can apply to the company to reduce the working hours to 6 hours per day; If the employee has a preschool child, they cannot work more than 24 hours of overtime in a month; Employees with children under the age of 3 are working from home online.

However, Japan's policy of encouraging childbirth has not achieved good results, mainly due to the slow adjustment of fertility policy and the subsidy is still not as strong as that of Nordic countries, the solidification of the traditional division of labor of "male dominance and female dominance", male parental leave in name only, and gender discrimination in the workplace.

First, Japan has missed the best period to adjust its birth policy. Japan's total fertility rate fell below replacement level in 1974, but it was not until after 1990 that fertility encouragement began to be encouraged, and the encouragement of fertility was relatively weak. France's total fertility rate fell below replacement level in 1975, but fertility was encouraged as early as 1939.

Second, subsidies are weak, ranking last among OECD countries. According to public information, it costs about 20 million yen to raise a child until the age of 18 in Japan, and according to Japan's current childcare subsidy standard, childcare subsidy can only cover about 10% of the childcare cost. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Japan's household welfare expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.95% in 2019, well below the OECD average of 2.29%.

Third, the Japanese family model is still dominated by "male dominance and female dominance", and male parental leave is in name only. Japan has established maternity leave and parental leave, during which you can receive a subsidy of 50%-67% of the salary before the leave, although men also have parental leave, but according to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the rate of male parental leave in 2021 is only 14%, and most men take less than 2 weeks of leave, and male parental leave is in name only.

Fourth, gender discrimination in the workplace is serious, more and more Japanese women are giving up marriage and childbearing, and the rate of women who are unmarried for life is rising. Unlike Finland, Sweden and other countries, where part of the childcare work is socialized and undertaken by the state, the responsibility for childcare and old-age care in Japan is mostly borne by the women in the family, and the idea of positioning the role of women as full-time housewives still exists, and the idea of "male dominance and female dominance" is more common. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the gap between men and women in the labor force participation rate and wage gap in Japan is 12.6 percent and 22.1 percent, both higher than the OECD average. More and more Japanese women are choosing to (temporarily) abandon their families, and a reluctance to marry and have children has been formed. According to the results of the 2021 Japan Demographic and Social Security Survey, 17.3% of men and 14.6% of women aged 18-34 have the intention of never marrying.

3 Enlightenment: It is urgent to fully liberalize and encourage childbirth, accelerate the construction of a childbirth support system, and effectively reduce the burden of giving birth to and raising children

Population is not only the fundamental purpose of economic and social development, but also the basic element of economic and social development. The adjustment of the fertility policy is the most fundamental and important supply-side structural reform, and it is the general trend of liberalizing and encouraging childbirth. The whole society has basically reached a consensus, begun to pay attention to the issue of childbirth, and actively introduced policies to improve the childbirth support system.

First, we should fully liberalize childbearing as soon as possible, so that reproductive rights can return to the family. Childbearing will be fully liberalized, and the right to give birth to families will be returned to families as to whether to have children, how many children they have, and when to give birth, and each family will decide on its own the number of children to have. The comprehensive liberalization of childbearing is to return the right to childbearing from the state plan to family autonomy, to return the right to choose the number of children to the family decision, and to fully respect everyone's desire to have children. Fully liberalize childbearing, people who don't want to have children still won't have children, but some people who want to have three children will give birth, and there is no need to worry about the surge in the number of births caused by a large number of births in some groups of people and some regions.

Second, accelerate the construction of a childbirth support system and vigorously encourage childbirth. The first is to vigorously distribute birth subsidies to effectively reduce the burden on families in raising children. It is suggested that the national level should introduce a birth subsidy policy, and distribute 1,000-6,000 yuan per month for each child. The second is to implement a differentiated individual income tax deduction policy, covering from pregnancy and health care to the age of 18 or the end of academic education. The third is to increase the supply of inclusive childcare services, increase the enrollment rate of 0-3 years old from the current 4% to 40%, and issue intergenerational care subsidies. Fourth, we will further improve the protection of women's employment rights and interests, implement preferential tax treatment for enterprises, and accelerate the construction of a reasonable and effective sharing mechanism for the cost of childbirth among the state, enterprises and families. Fifth, increase investment in education and medical care, give subsidies to families with children to buy houses, and reduce the direct cost of raising children. Sixth, establish a social system that is equal to men and women, such as equal parental leave for men and women. Seventh, strengthen the protection of equal rights to give birth out of wedlock. Eighth, improve the top-level design of assisted reproduction, and issue targeted assisted reproduction subsidy coupons to families in need.

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