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A few days ago, the central government set the tone for the increase in pensions in 2024, although it is only 3%, but it has also risen, but there are also many people muttering in their hearts, why has the increase decreased compared with the previous year? Don't worry, in fact, there are many reasons behind the increase in pensions.
Stable prices, demographic shifts, and a tightening of the purse bag due to slow economic growth will affect the increase in pensions. Let's take a look at the underlying reasons behind the increase and discuss the possible future trend of pensions.
Why did the pension only rise by 3% this year?
In 2024, the pension increase is set at 3%, which is a decrease of 0.8 percentage points compared with previous years, although this change has broken the psychological expectations of many people, but from an objective point of view, the adjustment of pension increase is a complex decision-making process involving economic, social, policy and other factors.
Let's first take a look at the reasons why the pension increase this year is only 3%.
It has an important impact on the increase in pensions, first of all, the stability of the price level.
From 2023 to the first quarter of 2024, the price increase in the mainland is small, and the overall price level is relatively stable.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the price increase for the whole of 2023 was only 0.2%. This price stability means that the basic cost of living for retirees has not increased significantly, so pension increases do not need to be set too high to catch up with price increases.
The more important reason is that we are facing a big difficulty today - there is a pension gap.
With the aging of the population, the increase in the number of retirees and the relative decrease in the number of contributors have put unprecedented pressure on pension funds.
Although everyone looks at the pension is rising every year, the pension pool is not as abundant as before, in fact, there has been a pension gap in the mainland since 2014.
Since the beginning of 2022, the mainland has entered a deep aging population, and since last year, we have ushered in the largest wave of retirement in history.
According to statistics, 20 million new retirees will be added every year in the future, and it will continue until 2035, when the number of new retirees will reach 340 million.
It can be said that in the past, multiple people supported one old man, but now one person supports multiple old people, which makes the pressure on young people and pensions more and more.
In this case, it is not easy for pensions to achieve "20 consecutive increases".
This imbalance in the "pay-as-you-go" model also requires governments to take steps to ensure the sustainability of pension funds.
At present, the government has taken measures to alleviate this pressure by reducing the proportion of enterprise pension insurance contributions and increasing government subsidies.
However, while these measures can provide some relief in the short term, they do not fundamentally address the long-term challenges facing pension funds.
In addition, the slowdown in economic growth has also had a significant impact on pension growth.
With the increase of the mainland's economic volume, the growth rate will naturally slow down, which is the natural law of economic development, and there are many external factors such as the epidemic and geopolitics that have led to a certain contraction in economic growth.
The slowdown in economic growth means that the growth of national fiscal revenue is limited, which also limits the government's financial space in pension adjustment, which in turn affects the adjustment ratio of pensions.
Therefore, we can't blindly see whether the pension will rise or not, how much, but also see the objective reasons behind the pension increase.
Trend of pension increase in the future
It is foreseeable that future pension increases may remain at a relatively low level.
The stability of prices has reduced the urgency of pension growth, while the sustainability pressure of the pension security system and the slowdown in economic growth require the government to take a more cautious approach to pension adjustment.
Experts believe that with the development trend of aging and declining birthrate, the pension system will face increasing pressure.
The government may continue to take measures such as reducing the contribution ratio and increasing financial subsidies, which may make it difficult to increase the pension rate significantly.
From the perspective of international experience, with the development of the economy and social progress, the increase in pensions usually shows a gradual downward trend.
Although the increase in pensions has decreased, the government's care for retirees has not decreased.
At present, the mainland is also actively promoting the improvement of other social security policies, such as raising the level of medical security and strengthening the construction of community service facilities, which will help improve the quality of life of retirees.
In addition, the government is also exploring long-term solutions such as delaying the retirement age and developing a personal pension system to meet the challenges posed by the ageing population.
Various measures also show that although the increase in pensions may be limited in the short term, the mainland government is also making efforts to ensure that the welfare and quality of life of retirees are guaranteed, and it is believed that the quality of life of retirees will be further improved with the efforts of the government in the future.
Information sources:
"The basic pension of retirees in 2024 will be raised by 3%" Xinhuanet