Hong Kong stocks exploded directly today!
Hang Seng Technology soared 3.65%,
The Hang Seng Index soared 2.87%,
China General Internet soared 2.87%,
Even the much-despised Hong Kong stock innovative drugs rose 1.12%.
Not surprisingly, our Hong Kong stock portfolio, Attack on Bauhinia, also rose today.
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In addition to Hong Kong stocks, our heavy gold stocks and U.S. bonds have all risen sharply today!
Gold stocks jumped 1.59% today and have earned 24% since they first opened their positions on November 20 last year.
U.S. Treasuries jumped 0.47% last night and have risen nearly 4% since they first opened their positions on April 16 this year.
Note that this is a bond base, and most ordinary debt bases have risen by about 4% a year.
On the other hand, A-shares have fallen again!
The ChiNext index, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the CSI 300 dived across the board.
More than 3,500 stocks in the two cities fell, and the trading volume further shrank to around 700 billion.
The reason for the decline, I believe many friends have guessed,
Today's "Lujiazui Financial Forum" fell short of expectations.
Although it seems that the blockbuster news is constantly swiping the screen, none of the specific benefits of the market rumors have been realized.
The economic data for May was mediocre, and the market pinned its hopes on interest rate cuts and today's financial forum.
Unexpectedly, first the expectation of interest rate cut was disappointed, and then today's financial forum expectations also hit the street.
So there is a very strange scene:
A certain media is like being beaten with chicken blood:
Outburst! Blockbuster happens! Very informative! Blockbuster response! It's set! Breaking changes! Hurricane! ……
Investors at a glance:
What？ That's it?! I****
But here is still a mouthful,
The core of this level of financial forum is to talk about big ideas and directions.
The implementation of specific favorable policies must be gradually introduced by relevant departments in the future.
So let's let the bullets fly first for a while.
01
The rate cut is getting closer!
Last night, Lao Mei announced the retail sales data for May,
Bottom line: Significantly less than expected!
U.S. retail sales rose 0.1% month-on-month in May, well below market expectations of 0.3%;
Not only that, but the previous April figure was also revised down from 0% to -0.2%.
What does this mean?
The spending power of ordinary Americans is declining.
And Lao Mei is a typical consumption-driven economy,
Combined with the CPI, PPI and the number of people receiving unemployment benefits that exceeded expectations,
There are all kinds of signs that the Lao and US economies are beginning to show signs of weakness, and inflationary pressures are falling back quickly in practice.
What is the current situation of Lao Mei?
Looking upward, the financial pressure is increasing, with 35 trillion US bonds and high interest rates of 5%.
Looking downward, various economic data have fallen across the board, the economy has cooled down significantly, and inflationary pressure has dropped significantly.
Although Old Man Bao said that he was not in a hurry to cut interest rates, the data was very honest.
The current old beauty,
It's just a child who eats bad stomach and wants to have diarrhea.
I say I'm not in a hurry, I only fart and don't shit,
Who knows if it will turn into a "splatoon" the next time it farts.
Remember, when you want to have diarrhea, don't believe any fart!
The Taoist also said before,
Once the United States starts the interest rate cut cycle, it will be good for all dollar-denominated assets.
For example, Hong Kong stocks, gold, U.S. bonds, oil, etc.
This is an important reason why the Taoist people firmly buy Hong Kong stocks, gold, and U.S. bonds.
It is also one of the important reasons why Daoren has recently started to launch the Hong Kong stock portfolio - Attack on Bauhinia.
02
Why are Hong Kong stocks getting better and better, and A shares getting worse and worse?
In the past two months, Hong Kong stocks and A shares have been in the sky and underground.
The Hang Seng Index has surged nearly 14%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen 1.5% instead of rising.
Recently, many friends asked people:
Why are Hong Kong stocks getting better and better, and A shares getting worse and worse?
There are many reasons, and today let's start with the capital side.
Since the beginning of this year, the biggest difference between Hong Kong stocks and A-shares is:
There is more and more money flowing into Hong Kong stocks, and less and less money is flowing into A-shares.
Let's take a look at Hong Kong stocks first,
From the beginning of the year to yesterday, in just 106 trading days,
Southbound funds have accumulated a net purchase of 347.6 billion Hong Kong dollars,
Hong Kong-listed companies have repurchased a total of 110 billion Hong Kong dollars,
Hong Kong-listed companies have paid a total of HK$553.7 billion in dividends.
These dividends, even if only 30% are reinvested, are HK$116.1 billion.
The above three items add up to a total of HK$584.7 billion, which is a net inflow.
As for the "outflow", it is mainly foreign capital and financing.
In terms of financing, there were only 27 IPOs, with a cumulative financing of HK$11.8 billion; There were 144 placings, raising a total of HK$24.6 billion.
As for foreign investment, since late May this year, as the expectation of interest rate cuts in the United States has become stronger and stronger, the outflow rate has slowed down significantly.
In the future, once the United States starts the interest rate cut cycle, there is a high probability that it will turn from outflow to inflow.
The more money you have, the better it will be.
On the other hand, A-shares,
The main domestic capital sells tens of billions of soft-footed shrimp every day.
The incremental funds in the market almost all rely on retail investors and foreign capital, and now foreign capital is no longer exerting force, and retail investors are slowly being drained.
Hell if it's good...
I have to mention here,
Do you remember which question the Taoist left you before?
Who is crazy about adding Hong Kong stocks?
No, today it is directly open, and GJD publicly subscribes to three new Hong Kong stock dividend funds.
After the news came out, many friends asked people in the afternoon:
Which ETF is better to buy in the dividend sector of Hong Kong stocks?
Let's reply today:
Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend ETF, code 513530
This is also the Taoist himself in the investment, May 9 to open a position, only a little more than a month, has earned 8%.
The reason why I chose this is that on the one hand, this is ready-made, and there is no need to subscribe, just subscribe directly.
On the other hand, because this is a QDII fund, it bypasses the Hong Kong Stock Connect and does not need to pay the 20% Hong Kong Stock Connect dividend tax.
Recently, the market has circulated a small essay on the cancellation of the Hong Kong Stock Connect dividend tax every once in a while.
Before the policy is officially introduced, QDII funds are still very advantageous.