The game between China and the Philippines and the United States over Second Thomas Shoal is likely to be no less valuable than the fierce confrontation between China and the United States in the South China Sea in 2016 after Aquino III submitted for illegal arbitration. Of course, in terms of the strength of the two sides, especially the power of the Philippines, it will certainly not be comparable with 2016.
At that time, before and after the announcement of the results of the illegal so-called "South China Sea arbitration," the United States dispatched two aircraft carriers, the USS Reagan and the USS Stennis at the same time, to play with guns and sticks against the PLA in the South China Sea. But by 2024, not to mention the twin aircraft carriers, the only "Roosevelt" is in a hurry, rushing out of the South China Sea before the new regulations of the Chinese Coast Guard come into effect.
From the ROOSEVELT's "bucket runaway" on June 13 to June 24, there is not a single US aircraft carrier in the entire South China Sea, and only the Philippines is singing a one-man show. Although the "dramatic conflict" of the United States is certainly not as exciting as the confrontation in 2016, it represents a more meaningful meaning than in 2016.
055
To put it simply, eight years ago, the United States dared to use military hegemony to try to suppress China, and the People's Liberation Army (PLA) hollowed out its home and put on a "stud" posture to scare the other side away. But now China doesn't have to move such a big battle at all, as long as 055 is dispatched, the United States will not even dare to drive an aircraft carrier. Because the Pentagon knows that even if it drives over, it will only bring humiliation on itself.
In 2016, the United States dared to personally provoke it, but now it has no confidence to provoke. In the past, China exaggerated as "breaking the cauldron and sinking the boat", but now China is "a soldier who surrenders without a fight". As a result of this experience, both countries in and outside the region have clearly seen the qualities of the "military hegemony" of the United States.
Previously, the US aircraft carrier "Eisenhower" was directly "named" by the Houthis in the Red Sea, and the result was that the atmosphere did not dare to come out, which is already shameful enough. But at that time, some supporters of the US military could still find excuses, saying that this was Biden playing a big game of chess, and the United States did not want to escalate the situation in the Middle East, and wanted to mobilize more forces to go to the Pacific to play games with China, so it could only turn a blind eye to Houthi's provocations.
USS Roosevelt
As a result, now in the South China Sea, the United States is reluctant to swallow its anger in the face of China. The latest news is that the "Roosevelt," which slipped away from the South China Sea, ran to the port of Busan to start joint exercises with the United States, Japan, and South Korea. The Pentagon lost the Red Sea to the South China Sea, and now it has retreated to Northeast Asia. Moreover, not only is the "hard work" in hand unable to be performed, but the "mouth cannon" of the United States has become a joke without the support of its strength.
Recently, the Philippine government officially stated that the confrontation between China and the Philippines at Ren'ai Jiao was a "misunderstanding and accident" and was definitely not an "armed attack", and it would not trigger the "common defense" document of the United States and the Philippines. What does that mean? This means that even if the Philippines is taught a lesson by China in the South China Sea, the United States will definitely not stand up for the Philippines.
On the 23rd, Marcos Jr. went to the Western Military Region of the Philippine Armed Forces to deliver a speech, saying that the Philippine side would not resort to force when performing its duties, and the Philippines "did not incite war."
Marcos Jr
The original intention of the Marcos Jr. administration to make this move was definitely not to create a "misunderstanding" or to escalate the situation and drag the United States into the water. If it was a misunderstanding, then why did it take the Armed Forces of the Philippines and not the Coast Guard this time? Why did at least six ships be mobilized in one go to attack the Chinese coast guard's blockade from multiple directions?
Although the Philippines has made many provocations in the past, there is no other conflict in which the Philippine military has ended in a large-scale conflict. The Marcos Jr. administration and the Philippine military are working in the direction of escalating the South China Sea issue from "friction" to "armed conflict." So now that the Philippines has come forward to clarify that it was a misunderstanding, what is the reason? There is only one answer, and that is that the United States is unwilling.
After this round of conflict, the Philippines, which has always been keen to "grab the front page" on the South China Sea issue, was rarely silent for almost half a day. During this time, Marcos Jr. is likely to be busy communicating with the US side to see if he can make things bigger. But the whole world saw it, that is, it was poured cold water on the head of the United States.
Meifei
The impact of this incident on the situation in the South China Sea as a whole and even on the global pattern will be extremely huge. The first impact, which has recently begun to emerge, is that ASEAN will accelerate the establishment of a series of multilateral cooperation platforms with China, more and more ASEAN countries will join the BRICS, and at the same time, the ASEAN-led RCEP will also absorb more BRICS members or quasi-BRICS members.
On June 15, Chile officially submitted its application to join the RCEP, which also opened a precedent for Latin American countries to join the RCEP. On June 18, the President of Malay officially stated that he would accelerate the process of joining the BRICS group. On the same day, Chinese high-level officials visited Malaysia and signed a new batch of economic and trade agreements.
On June 20, Thailand officially submitted its application to join the BRICS, and hopes to get the opportunity to "turn positive" at the BRICS summit in October this year. This convergence is not the end but the beginning. Vietnam and Indonesia have also signaled their intention to join the BRICS before, and it is estimated that they are not far from formally submitting their applications.
BRICS
Second, the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, which has entered the third reading stage, is likely to have good news in the coming months. Previously, according to the US media, the signal revealed within ASEAN is to strive to land this document before 2026, but now this time node is likely to be further advanced.
Finally, the global hegemony of the United States will disintegrate at an accelerated pace. The U.S. Middle East strategy has largely gotten out of control, and the possibility of Sunni countries shaking hands with Israel and dealing with Iran is becoming increasingly slim. And next, the one who "makes trouble" is likely to be the West Pacific.
After this round of gambling that began on June 17, looking at the Philippines that swallowed its anger, the trust value of ASEAN countries in the United States has fallen to the bottom. Now, even within the Philippines, the voice of condemnation of Marcos Jr. is getting louder and louder. Philippine business groups have publicly called for the Philippine military to stop "harassment."
China and the United States
Duterte's daughter Sara has also announced her resignation from her part-time position in the Marcos Jr. cabinet after this round of confrontation in the South China Sea. The Philippines is already the only remaining fulcrum of the United States in the South China Sea, and if this fulcrum collapses, it will be difficult for the United States to continue to make any waves in the South China Sea.
Northeast Asia will be America's last fig leaf in the Western Pacific, but now China, Russia, and North Korea are clearly ready to work together. The triangle between the United States, Japan, and South Korea, which the United States is "chasing ducks to the shelves", has to put a huge question mark on how long it can hold up.
At this point, it can basically be said that the withdrawal of the United States from the Western Pacific and the retreat of the turtle into the Eastern Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean have become a major trend in history, and it is useless for the Biden administration to struggle.
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