1. Production of mainstream steel mills in Anhui Province:
According to the survey, the mainstream steel mills in Anhui Province have basically maintained normal production, only individual production lines maintain unsaturated production or maintenance status, the province is not affected much by the crude steel regulation and control policy, the production has not been reduced, the demand has declined, the contradiction between supply and demand in the province is still intensifying, and the confidence of businesses is also obviously insufficient.
Second, the macro long and short are intertwined
On June 25, Hunan, Guangxi, Guangdong, and Jiangxi issued heavy rain warnings, and the rainfall in Yuetang District, Xiangtan, Hunan Province will reach more than 100 mm from 8 to 11 o'clock, with a maximum hourly rain intensity of 35 mm, and accompanied by strong convective weather such as thunder and lightning, the risk of disasters is extremely high. This year's flood season is short and disastrous, the construction progress of terminal projects has been seriously affected, the demand for steel has dropped sharply, the market speculative demand has been suppressed, and the national demand has been significantly delayed.
3. Summary of steel spot and futures prices
On June 25, the domestic steel market price continued to decline, the decline narrowed, and the ex-factory tax-included price of Tangshan billet resources remained stable at 3290 yuan/ton. Black futures were mixed, merchants' mentality was weak, and market trading performance was weak.
On June 25, black futures were mixed. The main contract of the snail closed at 3532, down 0.31% from the previous trading day, DIF and DEA continued to fall, and the RSI three-line indicator was located at 19-31, running along the lower band of the Bollinger Band.
On June 25, 7 steel mills lowered the ex-factory price of construction steel by 20-50 yuan/ton.
Rebar: On June 25, domestic construction steel prices continued to fall. The average price of rebar in major cities across the country was 3,620 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Specifically, the snail continued to fall in early trading, and the domestic spot price continued to fall in the morning. In terms of transactions, the overall performance of the market in the morning was weak, and the snail fluctuated in the late afternoon, and the decline in spot prices in individual cities further expanded, and the trading performance of the whole day was weak. In the short term, the high temperature and rainy weather continues, the market demand is sluggish, and the pressure on the spot inventory of merchants is greater, and it is expected that the domestic construction steel price will continue to be weak and volatile on the 26th.
Hot-rolled coil: On June 25, the average price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coil in 24 major cities across the country was 3,726 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Black commodity futures fluctuated, the spot market quotations fell slightly in the morning, and the market continued to fluctuate and weaken in the afternoon, and some market prices continued to decline, and the transaction weakened. At present, the market is volatile, the demand is still at a low level, the price of raw materials continues to decline, the inventory of finished materials remains high, the market wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and the transaction is weak. At present, the supply is consolidating at a high level, the inventory continues to increase, and the terminal is still dominated by on-demand procurement. On the whole, the current market transaction is weak, traders' sentiment is poor, and the price of hot-rolled coil may continue to fluctuate in the near future.
Cold-rolled coil: On June 25, the national spot price of cold-rolled coil fell slightly, with a national average price of 4,227 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Specifically, the price of futures hot coil continues to run weakly, the market mentality is more pessimistic, and merchants take the initiative to reduce prices, but the current market demand is relatively limited, and the price decline has not led to a better transaction. In terms of steel mills, the loss space of long-process steel mills has increased at this stage, but because the orders are acceptable, there is no clear maintenance plan for the time being, and the market supply is still high. South China traders said that the rainy season has led to certain difficulties in the transportation of goods in the market, and it is difficult to remove inventory, and a new round of orders at the end of the month is about to begin, and the market operation is mainly based on price reduction. To sum up, it is expected that the domestic cold-rolled coil price may continue to run weakly on the 26th.
Plate: On June 25, the average price of 20mm plain plate in 24 major cities across the country was 3,774 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Futures fluctuated lower, the market trading was cautious, and the overall transaction was weak. At present, the molten iron of steel mills is at a high level and upward, forming a bottom support for plate prices, but the hot iron and weak demand are bound to cause absolute pressure on the inventory in the off-season, the profit margins of steel mills have declined significantly, the market demand continues to be weak, the bottom of the disk continues to decline, the spot transaction continues to fall, superimposed East China into the rainy season, the country is affected by the rainy season and high temperatures, the consumption of medium plate is difficult to improve, and the price drive is still insufficient. On the whole, it is expected that the domestic plate price will fluctuate and weaken on the 26th.
Fourth, the raw material end
【Coke】On June 25, the market price was temporarily stable. The downstream steel mills have a strong resistance mentality, and the two sides of coke and steel continue to play. On the supply side, the rhythm of market pulling, transportation, procurement and sales has basically recovered, and the coke enterprises in the region have started high and stable construction with the support of small profits, and maintained active shipments, and the inventory in the factory is almost none. In the downstream, the output of molten iron continues to rise, the coke just needs to be enhanced, and some steel mills are slightly difficult to feedback the arrival, and it is difficult to increase the warehouse, but there are also some steel mills considering the decline in their own rigid demand, and there is a situation of controlling the arrival, and the overall coke supply and demand fundamentals are relatively balanced, but the steel price in the off-season is under pressure, and there has been a continuous reduction in crude steel production in recent days, which has produced certain pressure on raw material prices, and short-term coke prices are temporarily stable.
Last week, coke companies in many places raised the purchase price of coke by 50-55 yuan/ton, and so far, steel mills have not responded, and most steel mills have strong resistance. On the supply side, coke enterprises started to operate steadily, coke was produced and sold immediately, and the delivery was more active, and the coke inventory in some coke enterprises declined, considering that the coke price has been lowered after two rounds and the coking coal price at the raw material end has rebounded, the profits of coke enterprises have continued to shrink, and the intention to increase the coke price is strong.
On the demand side, steel mills have low profits and poor shipments of finished products, and some steel mills still control the rhythm of coke arrival, but with the recent entry of traders into the market to divert the source of goods, the arrival of some steel mills is average, and there is still a phenomenon of expediting goods. In terms of ports, the mentality of the port market is weak, the actual transaction is cold, and traders are mostly cautious. It is expected that the coke market will operate steadily in the short term.
In terms of the [billet] market, downstream steel enterprises mainly purchase billets with use, and the performance of direct delivery of billets is generally weak. The black series of snails in the intraday shock adjustment, traders mostly hold a cautious wait-and-see mentality, the afternoon billet storage spot part of the report 3360-3370 yuan tax included, trading cautious. At present, the real estate market is still under pressure, from the data from January to May is still in the deep negative growth, the current steel market weak pattern dominates, futures intraday rush is weak, manufacturers make more profits, considering the sluggish demand for billets, it is expected that the short-term billet prices are weak and stable.
【Iron ore】On June 25, the price of mainstream varieties of imported iron ore in Shandong port increased slightly compared with the previous working day, with a cumulative increase of 2-5. In terms of selling, traders in the region are more active in quoting and shipping at a reasonable price, and there are fewer transactions in the spot market so far; Shandong Yuanyue market inquiry sentiment is acceptable, and there is a small amount of PB powder transactions at the end of August; In terms of buying, steel mills in the region mostly maintain on-demand procurement, and there are fewer inquiries. At present, the mainstream of PB powder is 796-801; The mainstream of super special powder is 630-635; PB block mainstream at 985-990.
On June 25, the market price was stable and weak, and the average price of scrap in 45 major markets across the country was 2,391 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Specifically, the arrival situation of steel mills has changed, the arrival of steel mills has rebounded, coupled with the continued sluggish sales of finished products, some steel mills have slightly reduced the amount of scrap steel, which is bearish for scrap prices. In terms of the market, the rainy weather has affected logistics and distribution, the transaction is average, the base price has declined slightly, and the inventory is low as a whole. On the whole, it is expected that the national scrap price will be weak in the short term.
Fifth, the screw rush is high and weak
Disk interpretation: snail futures fluctuated at a low level, and snail futures closed at 3532 on 10, down 11; Issue 10 closed at 3721, down 12. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,950 points, down 0.44%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 8,850.29 points, down 0.83%. Today's top 20 major institutions reduced their long positions by 9,000 hands and short positions by 10,000 hands, with slightly more changes in positions. Yongan long orders increased by 4,000 hands, short orders increased slightly, and Yongan's positions changed more. The warehouse receipts of the thread exchange remained unchanged at 420.68 million tons.
Today, the country's finished timber generally fell, the average price of various varieties fell by 10-30, East China has entered the rainy season, South China rain non-stop, but also to the demand for pressure, dealers generally reflected, the current goods are difficult to out, many dealers have a lot of inventory. The continuous decline in steel prices has hit market confidence, and there is no actual positive drive, and policy expectations have gradually failed. The slowdown in the decline does not mean that the bottom has been reached, and it is recommended to operate cautiously, and it is expected that the snail futures will fluctuate at a low level in the short term, with the snail support at 3500 and the pressure at 3570-3600; The futures support is 3700, and the pressure is 3770-3800.
Sixth, the market summary outlook
As of June 21, the year-on-year growth rate of steel inventory expanded to 14%, and the inventory-to-sales ratio was 1.96, which was significantly higher than last year's 1.6. There are two ways to alleviate inventory pressure: one is to increase demand, and the other is to reduce production by steel mills. At present, it is in the off-season of steel demand, and the probability of relying on the rebound of demand to alleviate the pressure is small, and production must be reduced if supply and demand are to be balanced again. The reduction can be divided into three stages: the early stage, the middle stage, and the late stage. In the early stage of high inventory + production reduction, it often evolves into a negative feedback market, that is, the supply pressure is not reduced, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the decline of molten iron leads to cost collapse.
Judging from the recent steel price trend, the market is evolving towards this path, and steel prices may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term.
Due to the continuous heavy rainfall in many places in the south, the weak demand for steel is difficult to change, coupled with the decline in iron ore prices, the cost support has moved downward, the fundamentals of the steel market are weak, and the short-term steel price may be weak and volatile.
7. Summary of steel mill price adjustment
Zunyi Fuxin Special Steel lowered 70 yuan/ton!!
1. Rebar is lowered by 70 yuan/ton: HRB400EΦ18mm rebar is 3380 yuan, 12/14 plus 110 yuan, 16 plus 80 yuan, 20, 22, 25 plus 80 yuan, 28 plus 160 yuan, 32 plus 210 yuan;
2. The coiled snail is lowered by 70 yuan/ton: the guide price of HRB400EΦ8-10mm coiled snail is 3520 yuan, and the coiled snail 6 is added to 300 yuan.
3. The high-line is raised by 70 yuan/ton: the guide price of HPB300Φ8-10mm high-line is 3480 yuan, and the high-line 6 plus 150 yuan.
4. The fourth-grade HRB500E is added 280 yuan for the third-grade rebar of the same specification.
The above prices are all the prices of the buyer's cash and tax; Prices will be implemented from June 25, 2024.
Jiangsu Nangang lowered 40 yuan/ton!!
1. The thread is lowered by 40 yuan/ton: the execution price of Φ16-20mmHRB400 rebar is 3580 yuan/ton;
Remarks: 100 yuan for 12mm screw, 60 yuan for 14mm, 30 yuan for 22mm and 25mm, 60 yuan for 28mm and 32mm, 30 yuan for seismic resistance, and 50 yuan for nuclear power thread;
The above adjustments are tax inclusive and will be implemented from June 25, 2024.
Xianggang lowered by 30 yuan/ton!!
1. Rebar is lowered by 30 yuan/ton: the ex-factory guide price of 18mm rebar made of HRB400E material is 3550 yuan/ton;
2. The snail is lowered by 30 yuan/ton: the ex-factory guide price of the HRB400E material 8-10mm snail is 3700 yuan/ton;
3. Wire rod is lowered by 30 yuan/ton: the ex-factory guidance price of HPB300 material 8-10mm high line is 3750 yuan/ton;
The above prices will be implemented from June 25, 2024.
Shanxi Meijin lowered by 30 yuan/ton!!
1. Rebar is lowered by 30 yuan/ton: the execution price of Φ16-25mmHRB400E is 3710 yuan, and the small snail is 200 yuan;
2. The wire rod is lowered by 30 yuan/ton: the execution price of HPB300Φ8-10mm is 3760 yuan;
3. The coiled snail is lowered by 30 yuan/ton: the execution price of Φ8-10mm is 3760 yuan;
The above prices are all tax-inclusive Taiyuan area delivery prices, measurement method: thread is weighed; The coiled snail and wire rod are weighed.
The above prices will be implemented from June 25, 2024.
Baotou Yaxin
1. The rebar is stable: the ex-factory price of HRB400EΦ18-25mm thread is 3620 yuan, 12-14mm is 140 yuan, 16mm is 30 yuan, and 28-32mm is 50 yuan;
2. The high line is stable: the ex-factory price of HPB300 wire Φ8-10mm high wire is 3560 yuan, the price of 12mm is 20 yuan, and the price of 6mm is 200 yuan;
3. The coiled snail is stable: the ex-factory price of HRB400EΦ8-10mm coiled snail is 3640 yuan, the price of 12mm is 30 yuan, and the price of 6mm is 180 yuan;
The above prices are tax-inclusive prices. Effective June 25, 2024.