The draw ceremony for the 3rd stage of the 2026 World Preliminary Championships in Asia and the top 18 was held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on the afternoon of June 27, Beijing time. As the fifth team, the Chinese team is in Group C with Japan, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Indonesia.
Objectively speaking, it is unrealistic for the Chinese team to compete for the two finals tickets in this group with the three teams of Japan, Australia and Saudi Arabia, which are significantly ahead of the team in strength and international rankings. For the Chinese team, the first task of this stage of the tournament is to try to suppress the Bahrain team in Pot 4 and the Indonesian team in Pot 6, so as to retain the qualification for the stage 4 qualifiers. For this point, both the team's head coach Ivankovic and the Chinese Football Association actually maintain a relatively sober understanding.
It has to be said that the Chinese team will face great challenges and difficulties as the fifth team to enter the top 18, no matter which teams are in the same group. Especially after the announcement of the latest FIFA member association men's football (men's national team) international ranking on June 20, the Chinese team is in the same group as many strong teams, which is a foregone conclusion.
Due to the unexpected loss of the Saudi Arabian team in the final round of the round of 36, which was squeezed into the third pot of the round of 18 by the Iraqi team, the probability of the Chinese team encountering the top Asian teams in this stage of the tournament has also increased. In fact, the Saudi team also ended up in Group C, where the Chinese team is located. In this way, the Chinese team is in the same group as the three first-class Asian teams that have participated in the Qatar World Cup finals, Japan, Australia, and Saudi Arabia, and is a veritable "group of death".
During the top 12 matches in the Asian region of the Qatar World Preliminaries, the Chinese team was in the same group as Japan, Australia, and Saudi Arabia, and did not taste victory. Therefore, in terms of hard power and international competition experience, these three teams are obviously above the Chinese team. In other words, it is not very likely that the Chinese team wants to compete with these three teams for two direct tickets to the 2026 World Cup finals.
In the context of the expansion of the World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico, the tickets for the main tournament have increased relatively by the football confederations on all continents. As the AFC confirmed 8.5 promotion places. The competition rules of this year's World Preliminary Championships in Asia have also changed greatly compared with the past few editions. After the top two teams in each group of the round of 18 (6 teams in total) have qualified for the main tournament of the World Cup, the 3rd and 4th placed teams in each group can also compete for the remaining 2.5 tickets to the main tournament through the stage 4 qualifiers. In other words, as long as the Chinese team can secure the top 4 in Group C, they still have hope of advancing to the final stage of the competition.
Strategically speaking, the Chinese team must suppress the Bahrain team in the fourth pot team and the Indonesian team in the sixth pot as much as possible in the competition within the group of the top 18. However, in recent years, the Chinese team has lost more than won in direct dialogue with West Asian teams. With the help of the financial resources and naturalization policies of the national football association, Indonesian football has made significant progress and improved its strength. Previously, the Indonesian team had broken into the knockout round of this year's Asian Cup. In the U23 Asian Cup and Paris Olympic Preliminary Asian Finals held from April to May this year, the Indonesian Olympic team ranked among the top four, but they unfortunately missed the ticket to the Paris Olympic Games due to their loss to the Guinean Olympic team in the Olympic preliminary intercontinental play-offs. It can be seen that it is very difficult for the Chinese team to fight for the top 4 positions in the group.
With the release of the results of the round of 18 group draws, the specific opponents and schedules of all 10 rounds of matches of the Chinese team at this stage have also been officially confirmed. According to the schedule, the Chinese team will play away against Japan, Saudi Arabia at home, and Australia in the first three rounds of the round of 18, that is to say, they will meet the strongest 3 teams in the same group respectively, and two of them are away games. Since the Chinese team had drawn with Saudi Arabia and Australia at home during the Qatar World Preliminary Tournament, the Chinese team should strive to get at least two draws in the first three rounds if it wants to get a good start. Due to the relative proximity of China and Japan, coupled with the second round against Saudi Arabia, the Chinese team will avoid a long journey at least in September, which may be relatively beneficial for the team to win points.
But on the whole, the Chinese team will inevitably toss during the round of 18, which means that the Chinese team needs to travel to Australia, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia successively. During the 5 international break cycles during the round of 18, the Chinese team needs to prepare and participate in each cycle according to the rhythm of "one home and one away" or "one away and one home". In addition, during the away game against Saudi Arabia in late March and the away team against Indonesia on June 5, the Chinese team still needs to be tested by high temperature or hot and humid weather. Therefore, how to arrange the training venues in the future, how to choose the home stadium, and how to reasonably design the visit route will also test the wisdom of the Chinese Football Association and the Chinese team.
Of course, with so many strong teams in the same group, the Chinese team may also be able to let go of their ideological baggage and give it a go. After all, in the world of football, there are many examples of the weak beating the strong. During the round of 12 of the Qatar World Preliminary Tournament, Ivankovic led the Oman team to defeat Japan away from home. And Ivankovic himself has always had a positive and optimistic attitude towards coaching any team.
Text/Beiqing Sports Xiao Yun