Stock Market Diary for June 27
1. Review of the diary of the previous period and yesterday
Last week's diary explained that due to the extreme reduction of the amount of energy, the amount of energy last Friday was only 623.3 billion, which is the fourth volume in more than a year, and the bottom of the downturn can not be converted into the bottom of the middle line on the 6th, so the first bag is safe, as for when to re-buy, and the market trend on the 24th can have the final result.
The diary on the 24th shows that there have been signs of bottoming out in the middle line on the 24th, and explained 6 major reasons, but because the amount of energy is too low, although the volume is large, there is no panic. Under the inertia of the 25th, there will be a new low before there is a positive line of about 1.5%, of course, the amount of energy is key, after the opening of the 25th, depending on the strength of the disk, decide whether to continue to buy.
The diary on the 25th shows that on the 25th, the whole A is extremely weak (in fact, it is not weak, the opening and closing are flat Yang Doji), the weakness mainly says that the amount can be extremely reduced, due to the amount of 1/2 position bought on the morning of the 25th, reduce part of the position, before the close of the afternoon, see the doji, and it is a falling resistance pattern, so continue to sell, first fall into the bag for safety. Of course, the doji does not mean that it must be a downward resistance, sometimes the standard doji appears after a continuous decline, which is a bottoming signal, but with the amount can be extremely sluggish, it is still 36 meters to go up. Wait for the 26th according to the market situation, and then consider whether to buy back, the standard of re-buying, the first is naturally the amount, only the volume of the volume can be done, the second tomorrow on the basis of the volume, must open high and go high, and break through today's highest point. This is the only time to re-buy, which means that today's Doji is a bottoming signal. On the contrary, due to the current sluggish sentiment, the volume will continue to shrink tomorrow, which is an unconditional wait-and-see. Anyway, the sentence that has been said repeatedly, there is always only one way to fall, and there is no one.
The diary on the 26th explained that on the 26th, there was a trend described in the diary on the 24th, delayed by one day, and at 1:44 pm on the 26th, it has risen by 1.5% and continues to rise, and finally all A rose sharply, and there was a bottoming combination of the morning star, which was established at the bottom, but unfortunately, the amount of energy continued to shrink, and the downturn in the amount of energy could not support the continuous upward trend of the market. Expecting a replenishment will inevitably replenish the amount. Because those who lie flat will sell after the rebound, and those who are short-selling or refinancing securities in domestic capital will also start to short after the rebound, so the amount of energy will inevitably be amplified.
Second, the news side
National Development and Reform Commission: At present, the mainland's financial scale system is already very large, but the financing structure needs to be improved. The cultivation of patient capital is crucial to promoting the high-quality development of venture capital in mainland China and achieving high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-reliance. With the help of the "visible hand", the government should guide all kinds of capital to abandon the impetuous mentality of "rushing for quick success, fast in and out, and making quick money", and insist on long-term investment, strategic investment, value investment, and responsible investment.
National Bureau of Statistics: From January to May 2024, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.4%.
3. Analysis of today's market trend and market outlook
Today, the Shanghai Composite opened 0.33% lower, and all A also opened 0.33% lower. After the opening of the full A shock, the rebound was launched, 9:47 once turned red, the volume can continue to amplify, 9:56 began 6 major banks plus the three major telecom operators, almost unilateral continued to rise, so continue to pay attention to my diary is naturally clear, how will the whole A run later. Yesterday's diary shows that after yesterday's sharp rebound, the number of people who sell or the main force of short selling in the market will naturally begin to increase significantly, depending on the strength of the buyer and seller. So after turning red, it began to fall rapidly unilaterally, before the close of the morning, it once rebounded rapidly, and the volume was 20% in the morning, but the volume was extremely sluggish yesterday morning, and the amount yesterday was mainly released in the afternoon, so the volume of 20% in the morning was not large. The afternoon opened again and fell rapidly, and then hit today's low, 1:10 to stop the decline, slowly rebounded, but compared to yesterday afternoon's volume of energy, this afternoon the amount of energy continued to shrink, so the rebound was weak, 2:09 fell below the 1:10 low, and then a new low, the formation of a small double bottom to stop falling, but the amount of no rebound, 2:24 volume can be reduced to less than yesterday, so after 2:30, the acceleration of diving and a new low, closing at the lowest point of 1033.198, down 1.83%. Today, all indices are a comprehensive decline in the market, the smallest decline is the weight index, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 fell 0.4%, mainly the six major banks hit a record high, plus the three major telecom operators rose, so the weight index fell less than 1%, today's largest decline is the CSI 1000, down 2.45%, the CNI 2000 fell 2.33%, and the CSI 2000 fell 2.04%. Micro-cap stocks fell relatively little. The main reason is that the stocks in the middle of the market capitalization in the three markets have fallen sharply. In the end, due to the continuous shrinkage in the afternoon, only 629 billion were traded today, 17.2 billion smaller than yesterday, and today is naturally a comprehensive downward market, with 4,732 falling stocks and 534 rising stocks.
Today's decline is normal, but the decline is larger than expected, and the amount can continue to shrink, so whether the bottom is a failure, I don't think so, the only bad thing is that the amount is still shrinking. Today's volume decline is the most ideal (the decline is within 1.3%), but unfortunately in the end it is a shrinkage fall, and the decline of 1.83% has cut into 2/3 of yesterday's positive line, which is a bad event.
Why did the decline exceed expectations today, today the senior officials of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission came out to speak, borrowing a visible hand, the government should guide all kinds of capital to abandon the impetuous mentality of "quick success, fast entry and fast exit, and make quick money", and insist on long-term investment, strategic investment, value investment, and responsible investment. How many stocks in China's stock market can be used for long-term strategic value responsible investment, are they not clear? It seems that there are really only six major banks or large joint-stock banks for long-term strategic value responsible investment, and there are three major telecom operators, and they do have investment value at present. Does Moutai have it, in 2021, it will be said that there will be no more, because of high-end wine consumption, when the economy is good, people will drink it, the economy will continue to decline, and the company's benefits will continue to decline, and I can't afford to drink it. Does Ningde have it? It is also from the 2021 diary that there is no more, and with the continuous decline of Ningde for 2 years, it now slowly has investment value. Does Yangtze Power have it? I don't think the current price is gone, there is not much growth of the company, it has been a 10-year bull market, hitting a record high every year, the price-earnings ratio has reached 45 times, it is a banker stock. Not to mention small and medium-sized stocks, most of them rely on capital to tell stories, speculation, where up and down back there, 90% of the stocks in the Chinese stock market simply do not have the so-called long-term strategic value of responsible investment, try to ask a stock market with almost no investment value, only circle money to grab money, how do you let shareholders invest in the long term, China's stock market can never rely on investment ideas to operate stocks, can only speculate to speculate, speculate and leave, this is the only way to survive in China's stock market, if you use investment ideas to operate stocks, Although it will not be lost, it will be a heavy loss. Why does Huijin only buy 6 major banks every time the market is bailed out, why not buy other stocks? Therefore, every time the market is rescued, Huijin is not actually here to save the market, but to grab cheap chips. How much Huijin earned this time, everyone will calculate for themselves. Since it is said that the high-level should invest in long-term strategic value responsibility, then your SASAC can also use tangible means and real estate to collect and store. First of all, those stocks that do not have any investment value are collected and stored from shareholders at a certain price, and at least those stocks that are fraudulent and want to be delisted by your SASAC can be stored at a certain price, and then delisted, is it okay? It can never be in China. Therefore, today's six major banks hit a record high, and under the shrinkage, it is naturally at the expense of the decline of small and medium-sized stocks, which is one of the reasons why today's decline exceeds expectations. Let's take a look at the comparison between the 6 major banks and the whole A time-sharing, when the whole A turned red, the 6 major banks fell, the 6 major banks began to rise rapidly, and the whole A immediately turned around and accelerated the fall. In a weak market, although this is not absolutely, it is basically the same.
Today's shrinkage fell, although it did not hit a lower volume than June 21, but it was only 5.6 billion, although it shows that the amount will never support the stock market to continue to rise, only a way down, but the shrinkage is also a degree, the amount is reduced to a limit, and it will no longer shrink, yesterday's selling pressure was lighter and rose, not that there is capital intervention, today is the rebound after the selling, no active buying, selling pressure on a lot of shrinkage falls. Although today's decline exceeded expectations, it did not destroy the bottoming signal, or the same as yesterday's diary, that is, pay close attention to the amount of quantity or quantity, only amplification is OK. Excluding the news, high-ranking officials should not come out again Talking nonsense and slogan-style speeches, but there are no real actions. After the opening of the market tomorrow, if the volume can begin to amplify, tomorrow the yang will cover the yin or cut into the yin line 2/3. The key is one word, quantity.
