After Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, who is most likely to take over as the 5th first-tier city?
On this issue, the most vocal and controversial are Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Suzhou, which are representatives of coastal cities;
and Chengdu, Chongqing, and Wuhan, which are representatives of inland cities.
Some people say that the criterion for judging should not only consider the degree of economic development of a city, but also take into account the comprehensive strength of a city.
However, I believe that at a time when economic growth is under pressure, economic development is the first driving force behind the rise of cities.
Therefore, compared with inland cities, which focus more on improving their comprehensive strength, coastal cities are obviously better in terms of economic development.
In other words, the probability of the next megacity falling into Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Suzhou is greater.
Only, who is the most likely 5th city?
In today's article, I will talk to you about it.
Whether economic development is good or not depends most importantly on the scale and quality of the economy.
the size of the economy, including total GDP and total population;
The quality of the economy, in turn, includes GDP per capita and income per capita.
So, which of the 3 cities is the best of these two indicators?
Let's start with the first item:
Judging from the overall data alone, it is Suzhou.
However, Suzhou's goodness lies more in its county-level cities:
For example, last year, Suzhou Kunshan, as a county-level city, directly overturned seven provincial capitals and capital cities in terms of GDP.
However, in fact, to evaluate the energy level according to the division of cities, it is necessary to avoid county-level cities.
However, Suzhou alone has created a GDP of 1.3 trillion yuan in the four county-level cities of Kunshan, Changshu, Zhangjiagang and Taicang;
But the total GDP is only 2.4 trillion yuan, so offset, in fact, the GDP of Suzhou urban area is only more than 1 trillion.
In other words, if Suzhou wants to take the GDP of the urban area out of PK alone, it is obviously not as good as Hangzhou and Nanjing.
Secondly, in terms of total population, although Suzhou is slightly better, but looking at the population increase, Hangzhou and Nanjing have stronger siphoning ability, and Hangzhou even has double-digit growth.
The reason for this is inseparable from the background of Hangzhou's development of private economy and Internet e-commerce in recent years, and the industry will eventually be the basis for driving population growth.
Let's talk about the second item:
This data is very intuitive, on the whole, the economic quality of Hangzhou is better, as for Nanjing's per capita GDP is higher, that is because Nanjing's total GDP and total population are less.
To put it bluntly, what Suzhou lacks is the scale of the urban area, what Nanjing lacks is the overall scale, and Hangzhou has the hatchback;
So the conclusion is obvious: Hangzhou has a bigger chance of winning among the three cities.
In addition to the fundamentals, Hangzhou's winning side is actually reflected in more places:
One is the constant strength of the policy.
For example, the Hangzhou metropolitan area, which was approved for the first time across provinces last year, is a bright spot, combined with the approval of the "Yangtze River Delta Super Ring High-speed Railway" just passed on June 1 not long ago, many station cities along the way also coincide with the metropolitan area;
Obviously, the export of goods to Hangzhou will also greatly improve the circulation rate, reduce costs and increase efficiency.
1 is the integration of the Yangtze River Delta.
To put it bluntly, if you want to stand out in urban competition, it is not reliable for a single company to be dominant, and sometimes it has to be developed in a group to come quickly.
And Hangzhou is hugging the thigh of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration -
As China's largest urban agglomeration, the total GDP of the 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta will increase by 10.2% year-on-year in 2023, accounting for about 1/4 of the country.
Among them, 9 cities with trillions of GDP account for them.
Behind these 9 trillions, there are also very strong industries, such as integrated circuits, AI, new energy, etc.
Just this year, the Global Artificial Intelligence Technology Conference opened in Hangzhou's Future Science and Technology City, which means that the digital economy will also be very likely to become the next industry outlet in Hangzhou.
One is that Hangzhou's economic activity is also strong.
In fact, economic activity is similar to GDP, but there is another dimension, such as the income of local finance, which is actually the basic element to measure the vitality of a city.
Obviously, in terms of financial income in 2023, Hangzhou is also a vanguard among second-tier cities.
Above, from the perspective of the upper limit of economic development, Hangzhou at this stage has indeed become the fifth first-tier city with the highest potential.
So, if you want to make money, the best choice I can say is Shenzhen for first-tier cities and Hangzhou for second-tier cities.
And if your money is not only about making money, but also about allocating assets, then the best choice is to choose a first-tier city at will, and a second-tier city can choose Hangzhou.
Hangzhou's property market has also made Hangzhou out of its independent market.
The reason why I emphasize that everyone can pay attention to Hangzhou and reposition Hangzhou at the moment is actually this.
More specifically:
1. Hangzhou's policy is loose enough
From the full liberalization of purchase restrictions to the restriction of land supply, to the precedent of the national team to collect and store commercial housing in prefecture-level cities, it is enough to see -
The Hangzhou property market is making its own efforts to remove the three mountains of "demand side, land side and inventory side".
2. Hangzhou's purchasing power is strong enough
Not to mention Hangzhou itself, let's just say that the purchasing power of the cities around Hangzhou and in the province is very strong;
The main source of these purchasing power is that the developed private economy has created the bosses of large, medium and small enterprises who set up factories and companies, and then drove the investment consciousness of businessmen in Zhejiang and settled in Hangzhou.
Speaking of second-hand housing, the second-hand housing transactions in Hangzhou in the past three months have exceeded 8,000 units, all of which are above the boom and wither line.
As for new houses, although it is only partially warmed up after 517, there are more people who can see the lottery number, such as the number of lottery numbers in May exceeded 13,000, a month-on-month increase of about 80%.
I know the grapevine, the new real estate in the slightly core of Hangzhou, especially the large house, the lottery and the sunshine of the real estate are not a few, and there is a situation of bundling parking space sales, and the winning rate is still less, in fact, the competitiveness is greater.
Therefore, it can be said that what the Hangzhou property market lacks is not purchasing power, but improved products.
Therefore, my advice to everyone is also, in Hangzhou, buy a new house, not a second-hand house.
3. The current housing prices in Hangzhou are low enough
Hangzhou's new housing market, at this stage, is not only under the protection of price limits, but also has price inversions;
It is also safe enough, because once the market has a tendency to rise, new houses will definitely have more arbitrage space than second-hand houses.
It is equivalent to that you can only buy third-tier cities at this price in the past, but now you can buy supporting facilities in first-tier cities in the future;
And this is the most cost-effective place in Hangzhou's property market at the moment.
The most important thing is that Hangzhou, as a strong second-tier city, still has great potential for growth in the future.
It is precisely for this reason that I dare to say that in the next 5-10 years, Hangzhou will be a value city that is definitely worth looking forward to.