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China Research Network
Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission on the adjustment of domestic refined oil prices
1. Adjust the background
According to the news released by the National Development and Reform Commission, the adjustment of refined oil prices is based on the recent changes in oil prices in the international market. In order to ensure that the domestic price of refined oil is in line with the international market, maintain market stability, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of consumers and enterprises, the state has made corresponding adjustments in accordance with the current refined oil price formation mechanism.
2. Adjust the time
The price adjustment of refined oil products will be implemented from 24:00 on June 27, 2024. This means that from that point onwards, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be implemented according to the new standards.
3. Adjustment range
According to the notice, domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 210 yuan and 200 yuan per ton respectively. This adjustment is calculated on the basis of changes in oil prices in the international market and the formation mechanism of domestic refined oil prices.
Fourth, impact analysis
Impact on consumers: Due to the increase in gasoline and diesel prices, the cost of travel for consumers will increase. However, taking into account the country's requirements for energy security and environmental protection, as well as the fluctuation of international oil prices, this adjustment is also necessary.
Impact on businesses: The rise in the price of refined oil products will increase the operating costs of businesses, especially those that rely on energy sources such as diesel for production or transportation. But at the same time, it will also promote enterprises to strengthen energy conservation, emission reduction and energy efficiency.
Impact on the market: The adjustment of refined oil prices will affect the supply-demand relationship and price level of the entire energy market. The National Development and Reform Commission will ensure the stable and healthy development of the market by strengthening market supervision and regulation measures.
The adjustment of refined oil prices is a decision made by the National Development and Reform Commission based on the changes in oil prices in the international market and the formation mechanism of domestic refined oil prices. Although this adjustment will increase the cost of travel for consumers and the operating costs of businesses, it is also necessary to maintain market stability and ensure energy security. At the same time, it will also promote enterprises to strengthen energy conservation, emission reduction and energy efficiency, and promote the healthy development of the entire energy market.
According to the report written by the China Research Institute of Puhua Research Institute:
This price adjustment is converted into an increase in price, with 92# gasoline increasing by 0.16 yuan per liter and 0# diesel increasing by 0.17 yuan per liter. Based on the calculation of an ordinary private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, it will cost about 8 yuan more to fill up a tank of fuel.
According to the monitoring of the price monitoring center of the National Development and Reform Commission, during the current round of refined oil price adjustment cycle (June 13-June 26), international oil prices rose due to factors such as tight supply and demand expectations and intensified geopolitical conflicts.
OPEC+ extended the "agreed production cut" until the end of next year, the "voluntary production cut" until at least September this year, and the number of U.S. crude oil rigs fell for the fourth consecutive week, and the supply contraction pattern of crude oil is expected to continue in the third quarter. U.S. crude inventories fell and weekly gasoline demand rose to its highest level since November, reinforcing optimism about strong summer consumption.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its 2024 demand forecast, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and other institutions are bullish on oil prices, and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data shows that speculative capital has significantly increased its net long position in WTI crude oil futures options.
In addition, the Ukrainian attack led to a fire at the Russian port of Azov oil depot, the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks reached an impasse, and a conflict broke out between Israel and the Lebanese Allah Party, and the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil rose again. Under the influence of multiple factors, international oil prices rose to a nearly two-month high.
The Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission expects that oil prices will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The continuation of OPEC+ production cuts and the replenishment of strategic crude oil inventories by the United States will support oil prices, and the renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will continue to increase the risk premium of crude oil.
The development prospects of the petrochemical industry in 2024 are predicted as follows: in the context of the weak global economic recovery, the petrochemical industry is expected to usher in a turnaround. Experts predict that oil prices will remain high, providing a good market environment for the petrochemical industry. With the downward shift of oil prices and the recovery of demand, the profitability of the large refining and chemical industry chain is expected to continue to improve, and the prosperity of the industry may continue to recover. Therefore, the performance of the refining and chemical sector is expected to soar, and large refining and chemical enterprises are expected to seize market opportunities.
At the same time, with the progress of science and technology and the improvement of environmental awareness, the petrochemical industry will pay more attention to technological innovation and green and sustainable development. The continuous emergence of new materials, new processes and new products will bring new growth points to the petrochemical market. In addition, with the rapid development of new energy vehicles, renewable energy and other fields, the petrochemical industry will also face new challenges and opportunities.
In terms of market demand, with the gradual recovery of the global economy, the demand for petrochemical products is expected to grow steadily. Especially in the Asian region, the demand for petrochemical products will continue to be strong due to rapid economic development and population growth. However, it is also necessary to pay attention to the potential risks such as the disincentive effect of the spread of electric vehicles on oil demand and the volatility of crude oil and natural gas prices.
On the whole, the development prospects of the petrochemical industry in 2024 have both opportunities and challenges. Enterprises need to pay close attention to market dynamics and technology development trends, strengthen technological innovation and industrial upgrading, and adapt to changing market demand and environmental requirements. At the same time, the government and all sectors of society should also increase support and guidance for the petrochemical industry to promote its green, efficient and sustainable development.
In 2024, the petrochemical industry will face a series of challenges and opportunities, and its current situation and market environment will be complex and changeable. In terms of industrial status, the demand for petrochemical products mainly comes from industries such as energy, construction, plastics, rubber, chemical fiber, and agriculture. However, with the slowdown in demand growth and the increase in environmental protection pressure, the overcapacity of the industry is more prominent.
In order to cope with this problem, the petrochemical industry began to adjust its industrial structure, transform and upgrade to high value-added fields, and increase the development and production of special chemical products and new materials. At the same time, strengthen the integration and optimal allocation of resources, and promote the intensive operation and intelligent production of enterprises. In addition, the industry is also actively promoting green, low-carbon and circular development, and increasing environmental protection and energy conservation.
In terms of market conditions, the International Energy Agency's estimate of average oil supply in 2024 has been revised downward, which could have an impact on raw material availability and costs for the petrochemical industry. At the same time, some OPEC+ members extended their voluntary production cuts in the first quarter until the end of June, which could have some impact on the global oil market, which in turn affected the price and market demand of petrochemicals. In addition, the spread of electric vehicles has a dampening effect on oil demand, which may lead to a decrease in demand in some areas of the petrochemical industry.
However, scientific and technological innovation has brought new growth points to the petrochemical industry. Technological advances are making production processes more environmentally friendly and efficient, reducing energy consumption and emissions. The continuous emergence of new materials, new processes and new products has brought new growth points to the petrochemical market. At the same time, the industry actively carries out international cooperation and exchanges, strengthens technology introduction and innovation capacity building, and enhances independent innovation capabilities.
To sum up, the petrochemical industry in 2024 will face challenges and development opportunities. Enterprises need to pay close attention to market dynamics and technology development trends, actively adjust the industrial structure, and enhance innovation capabilities to adapt to the changing market environment.
In the fierce market competition, whether enterprises and investors can make timely and effective market decisions is the key to success. The petrochemical industry report written by China Research Network makes a specific analysis of the development status, competition pattern and market supply and demand situation of China's petrochemical industry, and analyzes the opportunities and challenges faced by the industry from the aspects of the industry's policy environment, economic environment, social environment and technical environment.
At the same time, it reveals the potential demand and potential opportunities of the market, provides accurate market intelligence information and scientific decision-making basis for strategic investors to choose the appropriate investment time and the company's leadership to make strategic planning, and also has great reference value for government departments.
If you want to know more about the professional analysis of the petrochemical industry, you can click to view the written by the China Research Institute of Puhua
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