【Disk Analysis】
U.S. stocks continue to rise, even if there is negative economic data, U.S. stocks are still rising, which means that no matter whether the economic data in the external market is good or bad, it cannot change the bull market of U.S. stocks hitting new highs. Recently, due to the impact of the sharp rise in the US dollar, the financial market has seen a trend of "blood pumping", and some funds have chosen to return to the US stock bull market, so the trading volume of the A-share market cannot be increased. The A-share market is in the stage of chaotic governance, and it still needs time to improve the system.
In the short term, it gives domestic large model companies the opportunity to "self-market" and take the opportunity to compete for more users, and in the long run, it can force the iterative and accelerated development of domestic large models and drive Chinese enterprises to accelerate independent research and development. After OpenAI's clear restrictions, the market is expected to eliminate "OpenAI shell" products, and at the same time encourage domestic large model companies to accelerate independent research and development, promote the development and innovation of domestic AI technology, and developers and enterprises are also expected to turn to domestic large models to avoid possible risks in the future. From a long-term perspective, OpenAI's move may promote independent innovation and R&D of AI technology in China. Previously, there were some casing applications based on OpenAI technology in the market, and these products lacked core competitiveness and innovation capabilities.
The three major indexes collectively opened low, and then collectively pulled up and turned red, the stocks in the two cities rose more and fell less, and the theme plate performed strongly in copper cable high-speed connection, flying cars, communication equipment and other sectors, and the performance of textile and apparel, wine, daily chemicals and other sectors was poor. The concept of virtual power plant has been repeatedly active, Sanhui Electric 3 boards, Heshun Electric, Aote Xun daily limit, Encore, Zhongheng Electric and other shares rose more than 5%, with the construction of the national unified power market and electricity spot market in the future to further advance, the total number of electricity market transactions and the number of market entities will further increase. Low-altitude economic concept stocks rebounded at the opening, Sichuan University Zhisheng daily limit, Jindun shares, Jianxin shares and other shares rose more than 5%, Zhejiang Province low-altitude industry development Co., Ltd. was inaugurated yesterday, with a registered capital of 1 billion yuan, as the secondary enterprise management of Zhejiang Airport Group, and the integrated operation of Zhejiang General Aviation Company.
Copper cable high-speed connection concept stocks rose sharply, Wall nuclear materials daily limit, Kaiwang Technology 20CM daily limit, Shenyu shares rose more than 10%, LightCounting pointed out that from 2023 to 2027, the high-speed copper cable market will continue to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 25%, and high-speed copper cable shipments are expected to reach 20 million by 2027. The consumer electronics sector continues to be strong, Desay Battery, Hexing shares daily limit, Yingtong Communications, Goertek shares, etc., in the context of the recovery of consumer electronics demand and the entry of AI mobile phones into the stage of nativeization, the era of AI mobile phones led by Apple will accelerate. In the new energy vehicle market, the retail sales from June 1 to 23 reached 534,000, an increase of 19% over the same period last year, an increase of 7% over the same period last month, and a year-on-year increase of 32% since the beginning of this year.
Military stocks rebounded, Hongyuan Electronics, North Changlong both rose to the limit, Triangle Defense, Guanglian Aviation, etc. rose more than 5%, with the gradual recovery of orders from military industry chain enterprises in 2024, military electronics, military communications and other related fields are expected to fully benefit. PCB concept stocks are repeatedly active, Zecheng Electronics 30CM daily limit, Jinlu Electronics rose more than 10%, Kinwong Electronics, Victory Giant Technology and other stocks rose more than 5%, looking forward to 2024, with the general trend of global semiconductor cycle recovery and the launch of terminal innovation represented by Apple XR, AIPC, etc., the dual logic of "cycle + growth" in the PCB sector is expected to continue to resonate. UHV plate shock strengthened, UHV plate shock strengthened, Dalian electric porcelain limit, Yangdian Technology rose more than 10%, Pinggao Electric rose 7% to continue to hit a new high in the year, Changgao Electric New, China Xidian and other top gainers, in the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the mainland is expected to add 27-32 UHV external DC channels.
Market:
GEM:
【Market Prediction】
The Shanghai Composite Index opened low and moved higher on Friday, and the Chinese word head repeatedly rose intraday, driving the market higher. The index stood on the 5-day line and was blocked near the 10-day line, there are signs of the main funds shooting, but there was a dive at 1:30 in the afternoon, which also shows that some funds chose to leave the market. Before the market stabilizes significantly, this position should be careful of large changes in the market, and the funds in the market can be described as "each with a ghost"! Next, pay attention to whether the Shanghai Composite Index can stabilize above 2970 points.
After the ChiNext index opened low and went high on Friday, it fell significantly in the afternoon, and it should be noted that Oriental Fortune fell in the afternoon, which also led to a further decline in the market. Judging from the current market, the most positive this week is technology stocks, but the real big rise is one day, and the next 2 days are still mainly shipments, and the new energy sector is also following the trend. Next, pay attention to whether the ChiNext index can stabilize above 1680 points.
【Gold Rush Plan】
The equity risk premium rebounded in June and is now at a historically high level, indicating that the value of A-share medium and long-term allocation is highlighted. From the perspective of primary industries, the industries that have significantly increased the trading enthusiasm in June are mainly concentrated in the TMT direction, mainly benefiting from the expected catalysis of AI and semiconductors. In addition, the establishment of a large national fund, the expectation of improved orders of semiconductor equipment companies, and the historically low valuation of related individual stocks have increased significantly.
The concepts of shipbuilding, petroleum, and copper cable high-speed connection in the theme sector are the main participating sectors in the net inflow of funds, and the concepts of wine, daily chemicals, and securities are relatively large sectors with relatively large net outflows. Riding a bull and a bear found that the domestic large model is expected to benefit from OpenAI's control, and the current domestic large model has basically surpassed GPT-3.5 and is still improving, which is expected to accelerate the realization of the domestic "replacement" process.
In the first year of the outbreak of terminal AI, the iPhone moment of AI has arrived: Intel, AMD, Qualcomm, and Nvidia have successively released or are about to release AIPC products, and the battle for end-side AI has begun, and the competition pattern of chipsets dominated by "CPU+GPU" has become clearer. On the whole machine, Lenovo, Dell, HP, Asus, etc. fully support AI computers. On the mobile phone, Apple officially announced its artificial intelligence plan, and Apple Intelligence is expected to lead the full explosion of AI on the device side, because AI empowers Siri and deeply connects multiple APPs to generate tailor-made generative AI assistants.
Represented by large language models, the current capabilities of AI have begun to show generalization, which lays the foundation for AI to perform meta-tasks, which may have an important impact on the economy. In the next decade, AI will increase the productivity of industries such as mining, healthcare, resource processing, information, leasing, and business services, but will increase the productivity of industries such as wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering, and light manufacturing.
At present, there are two mainstream channels for using OpenAI's technology in China, docking with the API provided by OpenAI officially or docking with OpenAI capabilities provided by Microsoft Azure, the former may be affected to a certain extent, but developers may continue to use the API interface through front-end development and deployment agents. Under the wave of AI computing power, both have incremental opportunities, and will gradually differentiate into a complementary pattern in the future. As the AI industry shifts from training-based to training-pushing, Ethernet's high adaptability and economic advantages may be highlighted, and optical communications and other links are expected to continue to benefit.