Analysis of today's non-ferrous metals market
Today, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting, the domestic macro sentiment is strong, the main force of non-ferrous metals have stopped falling and rebounded, and the whole line closed in the red during the day, superimposed on the number of people who continued to apply for unemployment benefits in the United States that week hit a new high since the end of 2021, and the economic data was weak, boosting the expectation of interest rate cuts, which was good for the non-ferrous sector. As of 3 p.m.: Shanghai lead rose 0.93%; Shanghai zinc rose 1.86%; Shanghai tin rose 2.92%; Shanghai nickel rose 0.21%; Shanghai copper rose 0.59%; Shanghai Aluminum rose 0.30%.
futures market
spot market
Tomorrow's non-ferrous metals market trend forecast
Copper/copper scrap
Shanghai copper fluctuated and strengthened today, and the main Shanghai copper 2408 contract closed at 78370 (+460, +0.59%) as of the end of the afternoon. On the macro front, affected by the hawkish remarks of Federal Reserve officials and the release of economic data, the U.S. dollar index has repeatedly reached high levels, limiting the upside of London copper. In terms of the spot trade market, it is at the half-year accounting node, the settlement of corporate funds is under pressure, and most of the downstream have no plans to buy for the time being, and the social treasury has rebounded slightly, while the inventory of the previous period continued to decline. Combined with the disk, the market sentiment has picked up, and it is expected that the price of copper in the night market will fluctuate slightly stronger, and the main range will be 7.8-79,000 for the time being.
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In the morning, Foshan Dali Freight Yard reported 72,300-72,500 yuan/ton, Linyi Metal City pure strip 72,400, and Baoding joint stock 72,400. Copper scrap prices for two consecutive days to maintain stability, the morning disk rose slightly, traders still have some high-priced sources of goods, more wait-and-see reluctant to sell, the market circulation supply is limited, it is also understood that some copper mills in Jiangxi due to the narrow of the waste rod gap on the demand for scrap copper weakened, and turned to imported copper purchases.
Aluminum/scrap aluminum
As of the close of 3 p.m., the main 2408 contract of Shanghai Aluminum closed at 20,320 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.3%; Recently, a number of investment banks released a forecast for the annual rate of the PCE core price index in May in the United States, and the market is expected to be preferred. Domestically, in the field of photovoltaic and energy storage and other terminal consumption, the future demand growth of aluminum is still considerable, but at this stage, its proportion in the overall industrial chain is still small, and the price guidance is limited.
Today's spot aluminum rose by 30, and the price of scrap aluminum remained stable; In the morning, the trading performance of the spot market was average, with downstream on-demand procurement and purchase, and shippers shipping at high prices; The price of spray paint in East China is mostly 15550-15750, bright aluminum wire is 17750-17950, and cans are 14300; At present, the market is in the off-season of consumption, the orders of downstream recycled aluminum plants are weak, and some manufacturers have reduced the operating rate, reduced the backlog of finished product inventory, purchased scrap aluminum on demand, and the market transaction is average.
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Suggested actions:
Federal Reserve officials have continued to make hawkish remarks in recent days, and the probability of interest rate cuts is still low under the premise that the inflation indicator is not close to 2%, and the macro bearish position has not yet been reversed; Domestically, with the summer peak period of electricity consumption is coming, there is a certain possibility of power rationing in some parts of southwest and southern China, pay attention to the power load announced by the provinces in July, the short cycle is expected to have no production reduction disturbance, the current situation of oversupply will continue to suppress the weakening of aluminum prices, Shanghai Aluminum focuses on the support of the 20,000 mark, and the follow-up does not rule out the possibility of falling down, and the spot shock in the day is mainly small. Operationally wait-and-see.
Today's scrap aluminum prices are more stable, the mainstream of South China machine aluminum is still around 15,500, the short-term market is still weak, it is recommended to hold goods to reduce inventory, reduce risks, aluminum plant orders are generally insufficient, and raw materials can be bought on demand.
Lead/waste batteries
This afternoon, Shanghai lead shock upward, Shanghai lead 2408 contract closed at 19440, up 180, up 0.93%, the supply side is good to support lead prices to strengthen sharply, price increases, downstream overall on-demand procurement, keep low inventory, market prices continue to rise, stimulate trade demand is effectively amplified, supply and demand are difficult to balance in the short term, maintain long thinking, reference operation range 18700-20500, operation on dip procurement.
Today's spot lead price rose 125, the price of waste batteries in some areas continued to rise, Shanghai lead strengthened in early trading, the price of waste batteries was affected by the profits of recycled lead, the increase was small, and now the tax-included price of electric vehicle batteries in some enterprises in Guangxi is around 11,700 yuan/ton, the supply of waste batteries is tight, and it is expected that the price of waste batteries is easy to rise and fall in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips.
Suggested actions:
It is expected that today's lead price rose by 100, the price of waste batteries remained stable, Shanghai lead rose in the morning, the arrival of enterprises improved at the end of last week, the inventory increased to a certain extent, and the willingness of enterprises to increase the price of receipts decreased, Jiangxi, Henan and other regions of the electric vehicle battery tax price in 11,600 yuan / ton, it is expected that the market price of waste batteries in the short term is stable and strong, it is recommended to buy on dips.
zinc
In the afternoon, Shanghai zinc rose strongly, as of three o'clock closing, the main Shanghai zinc 2408 contract closed at 24665, up 450, or 1.86%, and the 2407 contract closed at 24635, up 470, or 1.94%, delivered at the end of the month, Shanghai zinc intraday performance was strong, and the central meeting in mid-July was expected to boost. In the afternoon, Shanghai zinc rushed to 24,800 above, Shanghai zinc center of gravity moved up or reversed the previous downturn, spot, Shanghai zinc rose rapidly, the downstream fear of heights aggravated, more wait-and-see, trading is relatively cold, temporarily pay attention to the inflation data favored by the Federal Reserve in the evening, and the short-term Shanghai zinc can focus on the 2.4-25,000 range.
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tin
Shanghai tin strengthened again during the day, and as of 3 p.m., the main Shanghai tin contract closed at 274340, up 7780, or 2.92%. The main contract 2408 traded 135,110 lots, and the open interest increased by 4,070 lots to 40,897 lots. The Shanghai tin futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 14,738 tons, a decrease of 177 tons or about 1.19% from the previous trading day. On the macro side, the weak U.S. economic data released overnight dragged down the U.S. dollar index, non-ferrous metals as a whole were red, and tin prices strengthened again. From a fundamental point of view, although the domestic inventory was slightly destocked during the week, it was still at a high level, while the terminal consumption recovered slowly, and the short-term Shanghai tin or high shock at 265,000-280,000. Pay attention to the upcoming PCE data in the United States for May, and it is recommended to ship at a high price.
nickel
As of 3 o'clock in the afternoon, the main Shanghai nickel 2409 contract rose and fell many times, and the long and short sides were deadlocked, and finally closed at 135480 yuan, up 0.21%. The intraday trading of the main contract was stronger than the previous trading day, and the open interest increased. The trading volume was 161026 lots, the open interest was 108893 lots, the trading volume increased by 47,655 lots, and the open interest increased by 4,922 lots.
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On the macro front, the number of first-time jobless claims in the United States hit a new high since the end of 2021, and economic data was weak. Today's spot quotation changed to the Shanghai nickel 2408 contract, and at the end of the month, the shipment pressure superimposed on the large number of warehouse receipts flowed into the market, and the refined nickel premium of various brands fell as a whole, and the overall activity was not high. Orders from downstream customers basically maintain rigid demand, some inventories are abundant, and the increase in short-term procurement demand is limited; Recently, the market has been dominated by on-demand use, and the replenishment volume is limited. From a fundamental point of view, nickel ore prices are still stable, the recent Philippine nickel mine quotation has risen, the domestic market is not high acceptance of high prices, the downstream wait-and-see sentiment is dominant, and the overall transaction is less. It is expected that the short-term nickel price will fluctuate between 13.2-140,000.